Your scenario is certainly possible. But what happens if Ground isn't able to beat the court system and they become employees? Wouldn't that negate the savings advantage for dear old Fred? Also, if Express shifts XS and E2 volume over to Ground, won't those semi-premium products suffer given the low emphasis on service by Ground? I can envision a lot of shippers switching back to UPS in order to at least get it within a few days of it's scheduled delivery date. The Ground guy would look at the commitment date and just blow it off.
I've heard similar talk from friends in management, but so far it's just talk. One of them insists that "major changes" are coming within the year, but that could mean almost anything. Good post.
Realistically, it would take a massive class action suit to be recognized by the courts to even have a chance of getting Ground's business model yanked. Let's say Ground did in fact get their business model reversed by court decision, would Ground's labor costs exceed Express' after that??? From everything I've heard regarding the contingency plans, FedEx doesn't believe that they'd have to pay Ground drivers any more than they are paying Express Couriers right now. So that wouldn't be an issue.
Regarding the "semi-premium" services... FedEx is currently operating with a schizophrenic business approach between Ground and Express. The differences between the two are being narrowed each year in regards to service levels. If one looks back 3 or 4 years ago and compares the differences between Express and Ground, then looks at what is going on today, the gap is narrowing. It isn't because the quality of Ground is improving, it is due to the fact that the quality of Express' new hires is declining rapidly. With stagnant wages and a gutted retirement plan, new hires quickly learn that Express isn't the place to make a career any more, so they hit the door once other options make themselves available.
Regarding committment times... 2nd and 3rd Day are late afternoon commit times. If Ground and Home Delivery can't make 4:30PM committment times, FedEx would definately be in trouble. Right now they couldn't pull it off; in another couple of years, they'll be able. With the transferral of non-overnight volumes to Ground, IC's like bbsam will be expanding 20-30% to have the coverage to meet committment times for volume transferred to Ground. If Ground was to treat the transferred Express volume as Express treats P1, then they'd pull it off easy.
We know that many Express customers want the extra service level. As long as they continue to ship overnight, they'll get it from pickup to delivery. For those customers who want to save a few bucks, they'll get their shipments delivered by a different person. The residential customers won't even notice. The business customers will learn to expect that paying less gets less.
I know this isn't cheerful news, but it is the coming future of Express. I've had people that don't have any other sources of information state that, "this could never happen...". I ask them why and the only response I get is a misinformed rationalization that Express can't do that because either the law wouldn't allow it or customers would get too confused. There is no legal requirement for Express to deliver its volume with Express employees and customers are already confused with the multiple FedEx trucks and deliveries.
The "problem issue" I see is one of communication with Ground drivers. We all know that we get constant calls for reattempts or ETAs for delivery so that customers don't have to wait. With the current structure, FedEx couldn't have a dispatch system for Ground as they do with Express. This would cause some customers to complain that they can't get their shipments when they want them or have difficulty in meeting up with the individual that is delivering the package. I've been told that FedEx intends to deliberately cut the service level on non-overnight volume so this isn't an issue. If customers ship non-overnight, then no special service; they'll get it delivered when it is due and nothing more. Want the service, ship overnight and Express will wipe your nose for you when we deliver the package.
Supposedly this is also going to help "bridge the gap" between Ground and Express in customers eyes. If Ground is delivering both their own volume and non-overnight Express volume, more customers will be tempted to use Ground for non critical shipments - or so I've been told.
The time horizon for this 2 to 4 years from what I've been told. The biggest delay is that FedEx does indeed want to make sure that its IC model isn't going to get yanked in the near future. Express also needs to fully implement the ROADS system to ensure that Couriers aren't needed on the AM sorts and inexperienced Couriers can perform routes with minimal assistance. We all know that the capital expendatures of FedEx have been going primarily into Ground with the exception of aircraft and technology (ROADS). Spending at ramps and stations for equipment has been under a strangle hold for quite some time now. This is going to continue for some time.
To those that doubt, look around your operating location. Look at the turnover over the past 3 years compared to the years prior. Look at the capital expendatures in the past couple of years compared to years prior. Look at compensation levels the past 2 years compared to years past. In FedEx's proxy statement for the impending shareholder meeting, they stress the need to offer competitive pay for FedEx's executives. Has there been any such communication made regarding the compensation for non-executives? Does FedEx "compete" on the basis of compensation for your efforts?
There is only one way for FedEx employees to have a say in this impending course of events. Unionization. There is no other alternative for the Couriers that wish to remain as full time employees. You can engage in wishful thinking and rationalizations that FedEx isn't in fact changing, or you can make a decision to attempt to protect the career that you have chosen and ahve given up other opportunities for. For those in their twenties, you have other options for a career. For those in their 30's or 40's, your options become fewer each year.
Some of us have already made the decision to leave. I see it as the "Titanic", slowly sinking with many still thinking that all will be well. Maybe there will be a rescue ship arrive in time to take you off before you take an ice water swim (HMS Teamsters). I don't think that will happen. To continue the analogy, I've been in the lifeboat for a couple of years now, rowing away waiting for eventual rescue - tossing out lifevests to those who will listen. For those who have chosen to remain on the Titanic, I really hope the HMS Teamsters do arrive in time; but I really don't think that will happen in time. Fred is slowly letting in the water on career prospects for Express Couriers, and sadly most don't realize it. When the Titanic does begin the plunge, I fear many of the passengers will be left wondering why they didn't act sooner. When one is taking an ice water swim, it is too late.