Ukraine Conducts "Military Exercise" in Russia

[Box Ox]

Two close associates of Vladimir Putin assassinated within hours

"We can confirm that Kyva is done. Such a fate will befall other traitors of Ukraine, as well as the henchmen of the Putin regime"- Yusov said

www.financial-world.org

It’s good that Ukraine has some covert reach against traitors and its invaders but it doesn’t seem like that’ll change the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.

 

[PT Car Washer]

It’s good that Ukraine has some covert reach against traitors and its invaders but it doesn’t seem like that’ll change the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Definity a David and Goliath conflict with righteousness on the side of Ukraine.

 

[Box Ox]

Definity a David and Goliath conflict with righteousness on the side of Ukraine.

I 100% support Ukraine. But their counteroffensive has now ended and the lines of control haven't moved very much. It feels like continued fighting might leave Ukraine more vulnerable to the Russians taking more territory since the Russians have far more bodies and funding from their natural resources.

What does Ukraine itself gain from continued fighting and dying if the US isn't willing to go all-out in providing them with the weapons or direct support they'd need in order to meaningfully change the lines of control in its favor?

 

[vantexan]

I 100% support Ukraine. But their counteroffensive has now ended and the lines of control haven't moved very much. It feels like continued fighting might leave Ukraine more vulnerable to the Russians taking more territory since the Russians have far more bodies and funding from their natural resources.

What does Ukraine itself gain from continued fighting and dying if the US isn't willing to go all-out in providing them with the weapons or direct support they'd need in order to meaningfully change the lines of control in its favor?

Heard tonight that Russia has lost 150,000 men to Ukraine's 70,000(which includes Ukrainian civilians). Peter Zeihan said the other day that Russia has been cut off from selling oil and gas in Europe so is transporting them to China via Siberia as well as to the eastern Russian ports for transport elsewhere. They're using 4 of 5 rail lines in Siberia to do this and one got bombed the other day. So we know Ukrainians are in Russia committing sabotage. Would about be impossible to guard those lines their full length so likely to be more of this. Also heard that 650,000 men have fled Russia rather than serve. Even if the U.S. doesn't fully back Ukraine I doubt they're going to give up easily. The biggest concern imo is if Russia is about to outright lose what would Putin do to win?

 

[Box Ox]

Even if the U.S. doesn't fully back Ukraine I doubt they're going to give up easily. The biggest concern imo is if Russia is about to outright lose what would Putin do to win?

They won't give up easily but they can only fight with the weapons and men that they have. And at this point I'm not seeing a potential scenario where Russia outright loses even if Ukraine gets eff (automod)-16 jets.

The Ukrainians have shot their shot with their recent offensive and it might be time to wonder what the objective is here other than to bleed the Russians while risking the loss of more Ukrainian territory to a future Russian offensive.

 

[vantexan]

They won't give up easily but they can only fight with the weapons and men that they have. And at this point I'm not seeing a potential scenario where Russia outright loses even if Ukraine gets eff (automod)-16 jets.

The Ukrainians have shot their shot with their recent offensive and it might be time to wonder what the objective is here other than to bleed the Russians while risking the loss of more Ukrainian territory to a future Russian offensive.

One thing is certain, we're coming up on two years when a lot of people thought it would be over quickly. I doubt very much that if Putin does conquer Ukraine he'll attack NATO. The Russians don't have the manpower and industrial power to tackle NATO and they've been pretty exposed in this war as not very competent.

Ukraine wants all their territory back and Russia wants all of Ukraine. Who will give up first?

 

[Box Ox]

Ukraine wants all their territory back and Russia wants all of Ukraine. Who will give up first?

Ukraine will have to if there's not a negotiated end to the war before US support is largely pulled. And even if it somehow isn't pulled Ukraine likely doesn't have the bodies for another two years of war.

So I'm just wondering what the plan is. Isn't it now clear that Ukraine can't drive out the Russians? Should we encourage a freezing of the lines of control as-is and give rock-solid security guarantees or do we see how long Ukraine can continue to repel Russian attacks?

 

[Box Ox]

Ukraine chases draft dodgers amid war manpower shortage - The Washington Post

VELIATYNO, Ukraine — "Soon after Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukraine beefed up its border defenses near this Carpathian mountain village.

But the extra patrols and reels of barbed wire fencing rolled out along the top of a mountain pass along the Romanian border were meant to keep people in — particularly draft-eligible men seeking to flee the country.

As Ukraine approaches its third year of war, those men are needed more than ever. The leaders are still pleading for more weapons and ammunition from the United States and Europe — even as signs of flagging support among those allies suggest that Ukraine may have to do more to arm itself. But even more than bullets, Ukraine needs fighters, leading to a search for new ways to mobilize the population and stronger measures against draft dodgers."

 

[vantexan]

Ukraine will have to if there's not a negotiated end to the war before US support is largely pulled. And even if it somehow isn't pulled Ukraine likely doesn't have the bodies for another two years of war.

So I'm just wondering what the plan is. Isn't it now clear that Ukraine can't drive out the Russians? Should we encourage a freezing of the lines of control as-is and give rock-solid security guarantees or do we see how long Ukraine can continue to repel Russian attacks?

Ukraine has what, about 45 million population? And they're in Ukraine, not having to be imported. I don't see them running out of soldiers soon.

It's coming into winter, then the spring mud season. It's not like they've been completely stalled by the Russians. Weather is a huge factor there.

What matters is the will to fight. That's clearly in the Ukrainians favor.

 

[Box Ox]

Ukraine has what, about 45 million population?

2015 was the last year that they roughly did.

Ukraine Population (2023) - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

 

[Box Ox]

Russia Population (2023) - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

 

[Box Ox]

What matters is the will to fight. That's clearly in the Ukrainians favor.

I hope that's enough.

I'm glad we gave Ukraine a shot at a major offensive this year. But there might be regrets in the future if Russia manages to overwhelm them.

 

[DriveInDriveOut]

So I'm just wondering what the plan is. Isn't it now clear that Ukraine can't drive out the Russians? Should we encourage a freezing of the lines of control as-is and give rock-solid security guarantees or do we see how long Ukraine can continue to repel Russian attacks?

Why do you think it's now clear?
Just curious, because it was pretty clear to me from the very start.

 

[vantexan]

2015 was the last year that they roughly did.

Ukraine Population (2023) - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

View attachment 457623

So more than 18 million males, most of fighting age.

 

[vantexan]

Russia Population (2023) - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

View attachment 457624

Look at how their population is dropping. Russia can't afford to fight this war much longer. 150,000 killed so far, 650,000 men have fled. They're killing off part of the population they can ill afford to lose.

 

[Box Ox]

more than 18 million males, most of fighting age.

It doesn’t seem like Ukraine has plenty of them to choose from.

The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems

Casualties have raised the average age of a Ukrainian soldier by nearly 10 years since Russia invaded in February 2022.

www.businessinsider.com

“As countless casualties have hampered Ukraine's forces, the average age of a soldier in the country is currently around 43 years old, Time magazine reported last week.

That average is up by nearly 10 years from March 2022, one month after the war began, when the average age of a Ukrainian soldier was between 30 and 35 years old, according to FT.”

 

[Box Ox]

Russia can't afford to fight this war much longer. 150,000 killed so far

to Ukraine's 70,000

So if Russia has about 4x the population size of Ukraine it’d have to lose more like 280,000 to be commensurate with Ukraine’s 70,000, no?

Are you sure it’s Russia that can’t afford to fight the war much longer?

 

[vantexan]

So if Russia has about 4x the population size of Ukraine it’d have to lose more like 280,000 to be commensurate with Ukraine’s 70,000, no?

Are you sure it’s Russia that can’t afford to fight the war much longer?

I'm not sure about Ukraine's demographics but Russia is top heavy with older adults. And their life expectancy isn't great. Fighting a war that's killing so many in their prime is just stupid on their part.

 

[vantexan]

It doesn’t seem like Ukraine has plenty of them to choose from.

The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems

Casualties have raised the average age of a Ukrainian soldier by nearly 10 years since Russia invaded in February 2022.

www.businessinsider.com

“As countless casualties have hampered Ukraine's forces, the average age of a soldier in the country is currently around 43 years old, Time magazine reported last week.

That average is up by nearly 10 years from March 2022, one month after the war began, when the average age of a Ukrainian soldier was between 30 and 35 years old, according to FT.”

Not looking good huh?

 

[Box Ox]

Not looking good huh?

I wish that weren’t the case. Just seems like now would be the time for Ukraine to cut its losses. They probably wont be in a stronger negotiating position down the road.