where's the volume? new rumor

Discussion in 'FedEx Discussions' started by STFXG, Aug 28, 2012.

  1. STFXG

    STFXG Well-Known Member

    I know the rumor was a 28% spike this summer/fall. I was just told to expect 20% more this peak than last and that the company has turned away a few major shippers that wanted to switch now. The reason being the ability to handle the volume. They will switch over after peak.

    This could be the reason we haven't seen the spike all ready and why the company has been approving new PSAs...
     
  2. bbsam

    bbsam Moderator Staff Member

    We are already seeing a sharp uptick.
     
  3. Goldilocks

    Goldilocks Well-Known Member

    The only thing I can say to this is WOOOHOOO! May not have to work hard during peak!!First time in 28 years...I'm thrilled....
     
  4. whenIgetthere

    whenIgetthere Well-Known Member

    Peak? Our peak lasted one day last year, Christmas Eve. We were way overstaffed and management wound up sending most PM PT's on break as soon as the AM sort went down. I committed to working someone's pick up route for the two weeks preceeding Christmas, so the split shift could stay out delivering all day, and I wound up running that route Christmas Eve only. Peak has been a joke here for years!
     
  5. DECKARD B26354

    DECKARD B26354 New Member

    I would have to agree that peak has been a joke for years. Now we can take off two or three weeks in November. That was never allowed in the past. The company could handle a 28 % spike in business right now or during peak. I doubt business from any major shippers was turned away. With all the volume that has already been given to ground the system has plenty of capacity and will have even more in about a month when they announce the big surprise. Not sure where you heard the rumor but, it wasn't from a good source. Hope you have packed your parachute.
     
  6. thedownhillEXPRESS

    thedownhillEXPRESS Well-Known Member

     
  7. STFXG

    STFXG Well-Known Member

    Sorry for the confusion guys and goldi. I'm only talking ground volume like downhill said.

    And our peak has never been slow. Gets worse every year...
     
  8. Ricochet1a

    Ricochet1a New Member

    I wrote an inordinate amount regarding this a few months ago. That "28%" was most likely a combination of projected growth along with anticipated spike in the area bbsam's source was located within. In otherwords, the 28% WASN'T a nationwide projection, but rather regional or maybe even localized.

    However, there is no denying that Ground has seen volume jumps this summer. So the info that bbsam put up was valid in my opinion (I initially shot it down, but later came to accept it as new info came out).

    Regarding expecting 20% more volume this peak for Ground...

    Well, Express is getting ready to dump 3rd day service. The announcement is supposed to occur in October, but so far, there have been no firm accounts on just exactly when the service will actually be ended. I've had correspondence that suggests end of November for termination of 3rd day, but this was informed speculation and the source didn't have a source document to base their opinion on. However, this particular source has been correct on many things in the past.

    It would take at least a month between the time Express makes an announcement of ending 3rd day service and actually implementing it. Customers are going to have to be informed, and given the FedEx preferred solution to the issue - ship by Ground for non urgent freight. Express Couriers are going to have to be "trained" in how to process shipments indicating 3rd day service (upgrade to 2nd day - training completed). Customers are also going to have to be given the opportunity to set up a regular Ground pickup, if they are using 3rd day service and are going to be "forced" into using Ground.

    Currently, Ground and Express move about the same piece count on a daily basis - so 20% in one opco correlates directly to 20% in the other...

    I can't get a hard figure on the amount of "deferred volume" (non-overnight) that is actually 3rd day in Express - but my numbers show between 10 and 15% of total Express volume - tending closer to the 15% (especially around peak).

    So in a round-about manner, you may have just given indirect confirmation to my source which states 3rd day Express service will end in late November - just in time to take the "pressure" off of Express during peak, and place it firmly into Ground's lap.

    Regarding telling shippers to wait to switch...

    That would be news, turning down volume prior to peak... If that is true, then FedEx is anticipating some MAJOR volume jumps in Ground this peak, and they are fearful that the Ground system might not be able to handle it all (severe backlogs of volume). I just can't believe that FedEx would turn down revenue, unless there was some VERY serious issues they knew was present. Expecting a deluge of what will soon be former Express volume hitting the Ground network would be about the only thing I could see, which would make FedEx shy away from additional business.

    Giving further credence to this assertion of holding back from taking additional shippers till after peak - would be that once peak is over, the system would be "tested" to handle all that additional volume. With the drop in peak volume, the volume from the additional shippers could easily be incorporated into the already expanded Ground network without any difficulty.
     
  9. zapmail

    zapmail New Member

    The best thing about the 4x10 scam is peak..need to get a 20 or 30 minute break in and start PUPS by 1500..sorry I can only go out with 70 stops when I leave the building at 1015....however this only happens for a week...peak used to start the day after T-Day..now..it's a joke.
     
  10. HomeDelivery

    HomeDelivery Well-Known Member

    zap, are you talking about Ground or Express?!?!

    over at HD, they're already putting out ads to hire drivers for the peak season; volume is picking up in my area <shrugs>
     
  11. zapmail

    zapmail New Member

    Express....
     
  12. zapmail

    zapmail New Member

    We're taking LWOP ads for peak season!
     
  13. I Am Jacks Damaged Box

    I Am Jacks Damaged Box Well-Known Member

    He's talking about Express sir.
     
  14. Kevinmevin

    Kevinmevin Member

    Well Ive Heard that we (ground) finally took the rest of the Walmart account from UPS and heard it should be entering the network near peak. Also our hubs daily volume went up 10k this month and is supposed to go up another 10k for September. Something is going on though.. our massive building expansion is planned to go online just before peak.
     
  15. bbsam

    bbsam Moderator Staff Member

    Yep
     
  16. Mr. 7

    Mr. 7 The monkey on the left.

    Soooooooooo.....
    This is the big 28% spike?
     
  17. bbsam

    bbsam Moderator Staff Member

    Part of it, perhaps. We are pushing previous year's peak numbeers already. Alot of new high volume shippers coming online.
     
  18. thedownhillEXPRESS

    thedownhillEXPRESS Well-Known Member

    Yeah, cannibalizing all of Expresses freight.
    But Ground is our "friend"
     
  19. UpstateNYUPSer

    UpstateNYUPSer Very proud grandfather.

    Suppose you are the shipping manager for ABC Company, which produces widgets. You currently ship with FedEx Express and it costs you $20 to send 1 widget within the same zip code. Your FedEx sales rep shows you how you can ship 3 widgets within the same zip code and same time in transit for that same $20. Do you stay with Express?
     
  20. thedownhillEXPRESS

    thedownhillEXPRESS Well-Known Member

    Only because of unfair and barely legal labor practices.
    Wonder if you'll be using the same logic when UPS takes the same approach.