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[poor]

Not mine, it checks out perfectly. I wish I had an extra zero or two.

 

[buyorsellopl]

Hey Seahorse,
I know this doesn't belong in this section but.....Did you notice the 200,000 block of UPS shares traded after hours on Friday?? This person will be the smartest or dumbest person come 10:00 am Monday morning. Maybe this person knows something we don't know!!

 

[seahorse1]

To: buyorsellopl

Missed that after hours trade. Couldn't have been too smart a move, considering what's likely to happen in the next 24-48 hours and certainly beyond. I think that those of us who have long watched UPS believe that the best is yet to come, and the past has not been too shabby either. It's been very, very, good to me per$onally !!!

 

[seahorse1]

How 'bout them Rams??? I hope we all have as good a 4th quarter tomorrow as the Rams did tonight. Go UPS !!!

 

[buyorsellopl]

Seahorse,
Once everything calms down and the hype from the IPO is over and we(UPS)becomes a normally traded stock, do you believe the returns will be justified to hold onto the stock. I firmly believe UPS stock will return a fair percentage, somewhere between 10-15%, BUT....when you consider the rest of the market and the "normal" performance is above 20%, can you sit back and accept 10-15%. Honestly, what's your take on this subject??

 

[seahorse1]

All you say is true. The "ONLY" uncommon denominator is with one exception that I know of, "Our" stock has not "really" gone down over the years. So to me it's risky to fool around with your core investment. If you've got some other "play" money, throw it at a net stock. That's what we are doing. But, at the same time we are "letting it ride" on Big Brown Class A.

 

[seahorse110]

I don't guess I'll ever understand the market..when you report earnings up 37% and your stock heads south almost $4.00 a share..what the hell is going on here???

 

[buyorsellopl]

I know we aren't suppose to watch the market everyday but we should look at the long forecast.
BUT.......I still think even in a strong market, the biggest return we will see is around 12-15%. Unfortunately, nobody in the stock market wants to bet on a "sure thing" like UPS stock. Instead they are betting on some tech stock to soar 200% in one day.

 

[more]

It was a great 4th Q., but for some
reason, probably int. rate scares, the
market doesn't think beating the "street"
by a penny is good enough. Hopefully
the stock will straighten up once Mr. Greenspan
does whatever he's going to do. Chin up and
keep smilin'.

 

[buford]

problem is domestic ground only grew by 4.somthing
%. this after all the e-commerce hype

 

[willsellmay8]

I think this is an indication of what is going to happen every quarter. Beating last years numbers just isn't good enough anymore. The only way the stock will jump or soar is if UPS announces something dramatic and we know that probably won't happen. Consider this stock a "dead fish".

 

[windyskies]

I cannot believe people are ready to bail so soon! Being a public company is new to many of us and we KNOW what a great company is, so we expect only positive rises in stock. Well welcome to the real world. Don't give up so soon! Also, remember that prior to Nov., our stock was $25/share. I'd say we still are doing quite OK.

 

[roger]

Look at it this way:

Lower per share price for tender benefits all shareowners that continue to hold the stock. Lower price per share equals a greater number of shares repurchased.

If you don't have the stomach for the market you should sell at the tender and then at each subsequent release of shares. Buy cd's or something that won't be subject to the volitility of the market.

I'll be buying during those price dips.

 

[sellingmay8]

Roger,
Lower price per share benefiting everyone???
If the tender offer is 10% of your shares, wouldn't you benefit if the price were higher. EX:
Current holdings: 1000 shares
10% buy back: 100 shares
100 shares x $65=$6,500
100 shares x $60=$6,000
My calculations show me w/ less money, just the price per share. If I'm not calculating this correctly, PLEASE let me know.

 

[roger]

The company as a whole will receive a greater benefit because a higher number of shares will be purchased for the same cost. The fewer shares that are out there the higher the PE.

Those individuals that are planning to sell at the tender offer will not be happy, but as a whole the company benefits.

 

[davie]

Roger, are you suggesting the Jan. 25th price may no longer be applicable for the tender offer?

 

[roger]

Yes I am. I have seen nothing from the company that states that the valuation was made on January 25th.

 

[sellingmay8]

Roger,
I understand the company will benefit but....I heard the company is going to release additional shares 3 times this calendar year. Any truth to this. This isn't UPS rumor, this info. was received from CNBC.

 

[roger]

Selling,

I saw the CNBC piece about UPS today. They were referring to the 3 dates when UPS A shares are released from their status as "frozen" by the IPO. They aren't creating more shares, they are allowing employees to sell their shares on the open market if they so desire.

There's a huge difference.

 

[optionmgr]

The reason the stock took a tumble is simple. UPS executives failed to lower expectations. Instead they hyped the internet shipments and Wall Street expectations soared. The name of thegame to win in the stock market is to set LOW expectations then beat them. Microsoft is master at this game and UPS needs to learn this lesson before the next earnings report. Most of the transportation stock analysts out there don't know anything but they are paid based on information so they make it up as they go and hope that they're right. The CNBC analyst is a perfect example of someone who is supposed to be an "expert" and yet he had his facts all wrong. Facts and real performance don't make a difference. His erroneous information caused some of this slide. The smart investors know better and will hold onto the stock. Hopefully UPS execs will learn how to play the expectation game in future quarters.