You’re asking me if a computer algorithm is more accurate than some random guy claiming he went door to door in an Amish community?
From my perspective, I didn't get the covid vax, I got covid, it was unpleasant for a couple of days but that's it. Just like all my friends who did get the covid vax. So I don't really feel like it was an effective vaccine at all. We know coronaviruses mutate rapidly, so it would be foolish to think they give a long lasting protection. Most of the people I know are done with getting boosters.
From the article you posted - "excess death rates among the Amish/Mennonites mirrored the general COVID-19 infection waves in the United States." If true, wouldn't that be consistant with the idea that the covid vax didn't have much of an impact on mortality?
You say that Republicans didn't want to get the vaccine, but I say that critical thinkers didn't want to get the vaccine.