The Oil Price Spike That Wasn’t
Global production is well placed to cope with Iranian disruption.
6/16/25
"The big news in oil markets since Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program is the price spike that wasn’t. Brent crude popped from $66 a barrel or so to a high of $78 last week, but by Monday it was back below $73. The non-panic owes to ample global supply, and it’s a lesson for Congress and the Trump Administration as they contemplate putting new sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Wars are unpredictable, and an Iranian attack on Saudi oil fields or shutting down the Strait of Hormuz is possible. Iran has made so many self-damaging mistakes leading up to this war that another can’t be ruled out.
But global oil production is in reasonable shape to cope with anything short of catastrophic disruption. Saudi Arabia has been producing more, as have Guyana, Brazil and Canada. U.S. production hit a record 13.5 million barrels a day in March. A sustained price of $70 or above would be welcomed by U.S. frackers, some of which have been taking rigs offline as prices slipped toward $60."