Haven't seen anything yet. Try talking to the dhl types. No skills. To bad customers would take that into account. Some customers ask me how they contact dhl. I tell them I don't know. The customers look to me as if I would know. Don't use ups, I sure won't help them.
DHL is going to be a tough competitor now that the company owns a ground network and has deep enough pockets to finance growth. You can send a 2-day letter or small package across the country for just over $3 if you have decent enough volume.
The big question that remains is how DHL will penetrate the retail market with UPS and FedEx already dominating the storefront environment. I also question whether or not the lack of density in the ground business can be overcome fast enough to keep the present pricing advantage going. A big upswing in business will almost certainly erode the 80%+ commercial business DHL presently sees on the delivery side.
It seems DHL has good momentum going forward. The company's hub workforce is already union. Unlike FedEx, widespread unionization won't push costs up across the board. UPS is trying to hold existing business with no operations cash flow subsidy like DHL gets from its parent as it invests and grows the business.
This is much more of a low-cost provider wins type of market now. It is also dominated by three big providers that all use high levels of operational leverage, with UPS being the most operationally leveraged of the three. The loss of even small amounts of business on the part of UPS can have a surprisingly large impact on profitability. If UPS can't reverse the trend, the company will likely have to reduce operating leverage, and that means closing some buildings and losing jobs.
DHL here is airborne with magnetic logos on the trucks. They are not well recieved by most here because their service is lacking to say the least. Yes, they can undercut us, but can they deliver? I guess we will see.
I have no connection to DHL or Airborne. I'm not particularly a fan of the service they provide because of the somewhat unpredictable nature of their overnight deliveries. But I can't say I really see a difference between the courtesy or professionalism of the drivers I deal with on the customer side. I don't know how the companies compare internally, within the hubs, as my experience is limited to UPS in that regard.
As for the cash from operations compared to the cash UPS has on hand, I see the difference being how the two companies have to answer for their investments. DHL is in growth mode, and is using cash from operations to rapidly grow the business.
UPS has the Berkshire Hathaway problem. It is difficult to have a meaningful effect on the bottom line given its size. It isn't hunting rabbits, it is hunting elephants. I don't think UPS really can grow its ground business much. With FedEx and DHL taking business away, UPS gains more or less keep it even.
In the next decade or two I expect the small parcel business to be less the mainstay of UPS and more of a package of supply chain services offered to clients. This is probably a good thing, making UPS less sensitive to the U.S. and other economies. Indeed, a stronger presence in supply chain services will probably mean UPS is stronger and performing better during bad times.
That's a big reason why I left UPS. The game isn't in parcels going forward. I was in a hub, and had little chance of getting out and into Logistics like I wanted. UPS's small package business will probably go through some trying times in 4-5 years, maybe a bit sooner. It will be a company less labor dependent. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I still have all of my UPS stock, but I must admit I worry about labor strife if DHL and FedEx accelerate the decline in small package business.