Management Pension Changes Impact (On Topic)

Future

Victory Ride
I bought Berkshire Hathaway at $1037 per share back on early 2000's.
IMG_1214.GIF
 

clean hairy

Well-Known Member
UPS stock did split long ago.
When they discontinued the employee profit savings plan, I got 21 shares of UPS stock, and a check for the rest.
At some point, it split and I had 42 shares.
I think it was around $25 per share when I first got it, and went up to $50 per share. Then. the split. This was so many years ago I am only guessing at prices.
 

FrigidFTSup

Resident Suit
We will see. If congress can raid SS like before and then claim it's bankrupt and won't replace it, then I don't put it past them. 9% approval rating for congress. I don't think most of them care anymore about political suicide.
Everybody claims they hate Congress but keep reelecting the same people. It's everybody else's representative that is the issue.
 
When I looked at the "rah-rah", it's not as bad as you think, look your 401k will make up for it!, I wanted to pull my hair out.
Their "projections" on value made some pretty ridiculous, near outlandish assumptions.

The worst ones were:
1) 6% return on investment, even if true, is volatile and not securely "guaranteed" like the pension. At least it's "feasible", unlike #2.
2) Assumption that we will get a 3% raise every year. The ratings systems have made that damn near impossible. Add in the hard salary cap and it's completely unrealistic. Even getting "exception" rating can = 0% raise if you're at or even near cap. Why would they even use 3% when the "norm" for the average employee is 2.5% (as long as they're not at/near cap)???
a) The annualized base salary is waaay off. Like mine is overinflated by $20k. Unless they're including other "benefits" (which they shouldn't if it's the base salary.​
3) All of the graphics showed a single life annuity to "prop up" the value when, what 90%+?, of people probably take 100% joint survivor?
4) Doesn't clarify whether their assumption is that you're contributing $18k (or $24k if you're in catch-up land) when determining the projected value of the 401k.
 

beentheredonethat

Well-Known Member
When I looked at the "rah-rah", it's not as bad as you think, look your 401k will make up for it!, I wanted to pull my hair out.
Their "projections" on value made some pretty ridiculous, near outlandish assumptions.

The worst ones were:
1) 6% return on investment, even if true, is volatile and not securely "guaranteed" like the pension. At least it's "feasible", unlike #2.
2) Assumption that we will get a 3% raise every year. The ratings systems have made that damn near impossible. Add in the hard salary cap and it's completely unrealistic. Even getting "exception" rating can = 0% raise if you're at or even near cap. Why would they even use 3% when the "norm" for the average employee is 2.5% (as long as they're not at/near cap)???
a) The annualized base salary is waaay off. Like mine is overinflated by $20k. Unless they're including other "benefits" (which they shouldn't if it's the base salary.​
3) All of the graphics showed a single life annuity to "prop up" the value when, what 90%+?, of people probably take 100% joint survivor?
4) Doesn't clarify whether their assumption is that you're contributing $18k (or $24k if you're in catch-up land) when determining the projected value of the 401k.

You have a lot of good points, but there are more.

1. They list the great points about a 401K in that it can be passed on to your heirs, but they base the projected disbursements so that the average retiree will use up their entire 401K attributable from UPS contributions when you die. If you outlive the average, you will outlive your money. So don't plan on spending what they say you can.

2. Most experts say to withdraw 4% of your balance and increase by inflation as you age. Some experts are saying that is too aggressive and it should be lower. Using UPS rather generous assumptions of an average compounded 6% return on investment at age 65 I will have about 485K in a 401K that came from UPS (excluding my own contributions). They suggest over 3600 per month in a payment or over 43K per year. Using the 4% figure I should withdraw 19,400 per year or roughly 1600/month.

3. They are very careful to use wording to indicate changes can be made. So it's probable, they will reduce the amounts they said they would give shortly after the changes are implemented.

4. I ran my pension numbers less then 3 months ago using their calculator. I had well over 100 more per month at 55 then what they just showed in my packet. I assumed 2% raises, they are assuming 3% raises. So how is that possible other than they are lying about the amount of changes?
 

UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)

Well-Known Member
My financial adviser has suggested that I withdraw no more than 5% of my retirement fund balance per year. He also anticipates an average annual return of 8% on funds held in that account.
 

beentheredonethat

Well-Known Member
My financial adviser has suggested that I withdraw no more than 5% of my retirement fund balance per year. He also anticipates an average annual return of 8% on funds held in that account.
during good years, yes you can get 8% return on investment. However, you need to average out with bad years. To anticipate getting 8% returns may very well put you in poor house when you are older. I hope you do well, but I'd rather assume a lower rate of return and be extremely happy if it does better then assume 8% and be disappointed and poor if it did worse.
 
You have a lot of good points, but there are more.

Yes, I concur. I listed out some of the top. I did notice the typical lawyer-speak of "we can enhance you even more at a later date!".

I also ran mine, but I always did 0% salary increase because, well, unless they move the hard cap, it's unlikely I'll get even 2% raises until retirement. More like, averages out to less than 1% per year.

I'm not sure if you noticed, but if you do multi-scenario and use, for example, 55, 60, 65, your monthly pension amount for 100% join survivor decreases in value.... I don't know if that's a flaw in the calculator thing, or it's actually accurate... I guess I made the assumption that frozen = frozen. Or maybe I'm wrong and it's frozen until you're 55 and as it thaws you lose some to evaporation =p?

I guess maybe I assumed whatever the value is on 1/1/2023 is what the value is regardless of age of retirement....

I've never planned on living what they say the number is, the only "fairly static" number I was hoping on was the pension amount (unless they enhance it again.) My wife will still be working for a bit after I retire (should I retire at 55), but I'm hoping to survive on as little as possible within enough of a comfort level I don't feel the need to go work somewhere part-time and can do some traveling here and there.
 
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