Maybe we should focus our attention to this, instead of each other?

[The Other Side]

November 02, 2008

Will US Unemployment Hit 10%? (SHLD)(NCC)(GM)

The US unemployment rate in September was 6.1%. The consensus estimates are that the numbers will rise, but there are differences over how much. The Bloomberg News survey of economists gives an average prediction of a loss of another 200,000 jobs in October. That would be the largest erosion in five years and would take unemployment to 6.3%
Several analysts have more pessimistic forecasts of an increase of 250,000 people out of work compared with September, putting the jobless rate at 6.8%.

It is not unusual to hear educated speculation that the level of unemployment in the US will go as high as 7.5% next year.
All of these numbers may be much too low. What if the economy were to lose three million jobs over the next five quarters instead of as little as one million? That would take unemployment near 10%. The jobless rate hit just under 9% in the 1974 recession and hit 10.2% in 1982. That level is higher than it had been since WWII and has never been surpassed since then.
It is not very hard to account for where three million more jobs might be lost. In the retailer sector, there are several large companies such as Sears (SHLD) which employ several hundred thousand people each. If this holiday's sales are as bad as experts expect, it would not be shocking to see 500,000 jobs fall out of this part of the labor force.
In the automobile industry, some estimates are that a GM (GM) combination with Chrysler could put 60,000 people out of work. If Chrysler's is sold off in pieces, nearly as many people may lose jobs. The car parts industry employees tens of thousands of workers. There will be as much fall-out in that part of the sector as there will be at the Big Three themselves. Almost no one is predicting a recovery of car sales until 2010.
The restaurant and hospitality industries are expected to be hit very hard as travel drops and more people are forced to eat all of their meals at home. Some of the largest firms in these sectors employee well in excess of 100,000 each and there are tens of thousands of small restaurants around the country. The idea that this portion of the job pool could lose several hundreds thousand workers is not out of the question.
While layoffs in the banking and financial sectors have already been painfully significant, there are bound to be more. The consolidation that has taken down companies including WaMu, Countrywide, Bear Stearns, Lehman, Wachovia, and NCC is not at an end. Several large regional banks and brokerage operations which have over 10,000 employees each could become part of future acquisitions if the mortgage and consumer credit disasters get even worse.
Three million jobs seems like a great deal, but, industry-by-industry, it is not terribly hard to get there.

 

[The Other Side]

We each have a stake in the economy. Why not ease the "one upping" and focus our attentions to matters that affect us all?

The estimates for unemployment are staggering and this will translate into lost jobs at UPS.

Both Hourly and Supervisory positions will be cut.

The election is over, OBAMA won, the Republicans lost. Lets move on to bigger problems.

What difference can we make to help insure UPS stays functional and major cuts wont be the case?

ideas?

 

[LiL"Comet"]

Dido!!!!!!

 

[diesel96]

Meanwhile, the Republican Governers (Ass)ociation Meeting is convening here in So Fla to smooze and groom the next viable canidate in 2012, instead of taking care of business in their own backyards. Who's paying for this all out free for all while hundred of thousands are losing jobs monthly?

 

[dannyboy]

aint that just like a democrat?

jumps into the water and causes a ton of waves and ripples, then tries to blame the drownings on others.

we cant get along because your basic idea of what the gooberment should be doing is vastly different than thge others that have posted.

it is our gooberments fault that we are where we are now. and they planned it. from the demolishing of the domestic tomato production during the food scare earlier this year, to forcing banks to give out loans to minorities who had no way of paying them back, then blaming the bankers? how funny. and now they are forcing the banks to either take the bailout plan so the gooberment can own them, or risk not being able to have fdic insurance.

bottom line, the gooberment is taking over our economy, like it or not. banking, auto, insurance are all now under federal control. that is only the begining of what is to come.

you seem to want to give the gooberment more control over your life, i choose less control. it would seem you and those like you that dont understand what is going on under the headlines are in the majority.

shame.

as for unemployment, the fastest way to increase employment is to increase federal employees and jobs. growing governent. do you realise that the number of federal employees has grown by 40% over the last several years? more employees with more power to regulate every little detail of your life.

the gooberment that can supply you everything can also take everything away.

d

 

[tieguy]

aint that just like a democrat?

jumps into the water and causes a ton of waves and ripples, then tries to blame the drownings on others.


d

touchdown!

 

[diesel96]

aint that just like a democrat?

jumps into the water and causes a ton of waves and ripples, then tries to blame the drownings on others.

we cant get along because your basic idea of what the gooberment should be doing is vastly different than thge others that have posted.

it is our gooberments fault that we are where we are now. and they planned it. from the demolishing of the domestic tomato production during the food scare earlier this year, to forcing banks to give out loans to minorities who had no way of paying them back, then blaming the bankers? how funny. and now they are forcing the banks to either take the bailout plan so the gooberment can own them, or risk not being able to have fdic insurance.

bottom line, the gooberment is taking over our economy, like it or not. banking, auto, insurance are all now under federal control. that is only the begining of what is to come.

you seem to want to give the gooberment more control over your life, i choose less control. it would seem you and those like you that dont understand what is going on under the headlines are in the majority.

shame.

as for unemployment, the fastest way to increase employment is to increase federal employees and jobs. growing governent. do you realise that the number of federal employees has grown by 40% over the last several years? more employees with more power to regulate every little detail of your life.

the gooberment that can supply you everything can also take everything away.

d

touchdown!

You both seem to be like lost sheep looking for the herd with your heads buried in the sand.....May I remind you'all, Modern day big gov't, big spending, socialist Republicans ran the show for the last eight years and continue to run the show as we speak. Accept responsibility and take it like a man...., or at least admit it.

 

[av8torntn]

What difference can we make to help insure UPS stays functional and major cuts wont be the case?

ideas?

We can all stand together to oppose the Obama plan to raise taxes and increase government spending. Thanks for pointing out that people expect massive unemployment if Obama implements his policies.

 

[Channahon]

Straight from Obama's mouth, I posted this on another thread regarding Obama's press conference on econmics.
Unemployment is addressed and hearing companies going out of business, financial instituions laying off, and the only job growth is with the governmentas Dannyboy noted. Now there's my concern.
Obama's Full Remarks On Economy

(CBS) Remarks of President-elect Barack Obama

Press Avail on the Economy

Thursday, November 7th, 2008

Chicago, Illinois

This morning, we woke to more sobering news about the state of our economy. The 240,000 jobs lost in October marks the 10th consecutive month that our economy has shed jobs. In total, we've lost nearly 1.2 million jobs this year, and more than 10 million Americans are now unemployed. Tens of millions of families are struggling to figure out how to pay the bills and stay in their homes. Their stories are an urgent reminder that we are facing the greatest economic challenge of our lifetime, and we must act swiftly to resolve them.

The United States has only one government and one President, and until January 20th of next year, that government is the current Administration. I have spoken to President Bush, and I appreciate his commitment to ensuring that his economic policy team keeps us fully informed as developments unfold.

Immediately after I become President, I will confront this economic crisis head-on by taking all necessary steps to ease the credit crisis, help hardworking families, and restore growth and prosperity.

This morning, I met with members of my Transition Economic Advisory Board, who will help guide the work of my transition team in developing a strong set of policies to respond to this crisis. We discussed several of the most immediate challenges facing our economy and key priorities on which to focus on in the days and weeks ahead:

First, we need a rescue plan for the middle class that invests in immediate efforts to create jobs and provides relief to families that are watching their paychecks shrink and their life savings disappear. A particularly urgent priority is a further extension of unemployment insurance benefits for workers who cannot find work in the increasingly weak economy. A fiscal stimulus plan that will jump-start economic growth is long overdue – and we should get it done.

Second, we must address the spreading impact of the financial crisis on other sectors of our economy: small businesses that are struggling to meet their payrolls and finance their holiday inventories; and state and municipal governments facing devastating budget cuts and tax increases. We must also remember that the financial crisis is increasingly global and requires a global response.

The news coming out of the auto industry this week reminds us of the hardship it faces – hardship that goes far beyond individual auto companies to the countless suppliers, small businesses and communities throughout our nation who depend on a vibrant American auto industry. The auto industry is the backbone of American manufacturing and a critical part of our attempt to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. I would like to see the Administration do everything they can to accelerate the retooling assistance that Congress has already enacted. In addition, I have made it a high priority for my transition team to work on additional policy options to help the auto industry adjust, weather the financial crisis, and succeed in producing fuel-efficient cars here in the United States. I have asked my team to explore what we can do under current law and whether additional legislation will be needed for this purpose.

Third, we will review the implementation of this Administration's financial program to ensure that our government's efforts are achieving their central goal of stabilizing financial markets while protecting taxpayers, helping homeowners and not unduly rewarding the management of financial firms that are receiving government assistance. It is critical that the Treasury work closely with the FDIC, HUD and other government agencies to use the substantial authority they already have to help families avoid foreclosure and stay in their homes.

Finally, as we monitor and address these immediate economic challenges, we will be moving forward in laying out a set of policies that will grow our middle-class and strengthen our economy in the long-term. We cannot afford to wait on moving forward on the key priorities that I identified during the campaign, including clean energy, health care, education and tax relief for middle class families.

My transition team will be working on each of these priorities in the weeks ahead, and I intend to reconvene this Advisory Board to discuss the best ideas for responding to these immediate problems.

Let me close by saying that I do not underestimate the enormity of the task that lies ahead. We have taken some major actions to date, and we will need further actions during this transition and subsequent months. Some of those choices will be difficult, but America is a strong and resilient country. I know that we will succeed if we put aside partisanship and work together as one nation. And that is what I intend to do.

(© MMVIII, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)

 

[Channahon]

Think about your delivery routes or feeder runs, UPS will surely be impacted by loss of volume to these industries. Which is why layoffs have already been announced by UPS for 2009.


Job cuts: Who's next

Employees from Wall Street to Main Street are feeling nervous about their jobs, but certain industries are more at risk than others.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As the impact of the economic crisis takes hold, employees from Wall Street to Main Street are feeling nervous about their jobs, and with good reason.
As of September, 760,000 jobs have already been lost this year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
And a quarter of U.S. employers expect to make layoffs in the next 12 months, according to a recent report by consulting firm Watson Wyatt.
But which industries will suffer the most? Experts say certain sectors are more vulnerable to layoffs than others.
Housing: Jobs in the housing sector were the first to go when the mortgage meltdown took hold. But with the industry outlook at an all-time low, even more layoffs could follow.

Beyond mortgage lenders and homebuilders, jobs in commercial real-estate and at real-estate agencies will be the next to go, according to Dean Baker, director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C.
With the worst September for new home sales since 1981, "some of the big [real-estate] chains will do some consolidation," Baker said, "clearly you need fewer offices," Baker said.

Finance: Few in the financial sector are feeling secure about their positions. The latest employment figures from the Department of Labor show financial firms have eliminated an estimated 110,000 jobs over the past year through September, and experts say there will be even more losses in the months ahead.
As financial firms reorganize and consolidate, there are going to be a lot more layoffs, Baker said.
"Financial services firms have cut tremendously and I don't think that's over," echoed Lee Pinkowitz, associate professor at Georgetown University McDonough School of Business.

Retail: Before the credit crunch, retailers were already struggling with soft sales as high gas prices and falling home equity forced consumers to curtail non-essential purchases. Now retail sales are dismal heading into the holiday season. "This could be the weakest holiday hiring season since 2001," said John Challenger, chief executive of global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and that's not good for those employed in the retail industry.
"I doubt we'll see the pick up in seasonal hiring that we'd normally see," Pinkowitzsaid.
But while department stores and high-end boutiques may be particularly hard hit, discount retailers, like Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) could fare well in the current climate, Challenger said. Wal-Mart is also the nation's largest private-sector employer, and could be a safe haven for those who work there.

Publishing: As consumers cut back, advertisers follow, and that means tough times for print publications, including newspapers and magazines, experts say.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, employment in the publishing industry has been contracting since the beginning of last year.
But the "grand decline" of jobs in the media industry, which also includes broadcast and digital media, began with the dot-com bust in 2001, noted Heidi Shierholz an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a research group based in Washington. Now a loss of jobs in traditional publishing is being exacerbated, in part, by the move away from print toward digital media.
"Every time you have a recession it pushes companies that have been holding on by their fingernails out of business," Challenger said. "It clears away an old generation of companies and I think we'll see that with print."

Autos: While sales at the Big Three automakers have fallen 20% this year and are likely to tumble further, trouble in the auto sector is not confined to manufacturing. All told, about 2 million Americans work in the industry.
While declining sales will likely lead to more job losses, those in "the tentacles of the auto industry" could be particularly hard hit in the coming months, Pinkowitzsaid, which includes those jobs at dealerships and suppliers.

Travel: Airlines have already announced layoffs across the board, but as consumers and businesses continue to scale back discretionary spending on travel, the implications go far beyond flying.
"All the industries under the umbrella of travel are going to be at risk" Challenger said, including rental cars, hotels and even restaurants.
If people are cutting back, travel and leisure activities are the easiest things to do without, explained Baker. Big restaurant chains will close locations, he said, which means eliminating many wait staff and service jobs, while some smaller restaurants will be forced out of business entirely.
But despite the mostly doom-and-gloom predictions, some say there are some bright spots ahead for American workers.
"Even if you're in an industry where there has been some job downturns, there still can be some opportunities," said Kimberly Bishop, vice chairman of Chicago-based executive search firm Slayton Search Partners.

Bishop suggests focusing on those skills and experiences that can translate beyond the industry in which you work. There are certain roles that every organization needs, she said, and you may be able to fulfill that role in another industry that has more promise. First Published: October 30, 2008: 10:46 AM ET

 

[dannyboy]

diesel

they ran what for the last 8 years? the gooberment? dems or liberals were in charge, and the tough president did nothing but reach across the street to hold hands and make friends.

under the current administration the gooberment has grown 40%. of course a lot of that has been the result of 9-11 and the reaction/mis reaction by the gooberment. things like body searching little ole q-tips while for sure not targeting those that are of arab ancestry. after all, that would be racial profiling, and we cant do that now can we?

yeah he got a tax cut passed. whoopee. thing is, the underlying causes were not fixed. a band-aid on a serious wound that needs stitches instead. or even better, an amputation.

so while bush ran on many conservative principles, he is a shining example of total failure.

why? you ask?

because he tried to reach to the "other side" to make nice and get along. instead they ruled and dominated his presidency.

and of course, over the last two years, the dems were in power, not the republicans. and that was due to the backlash over the broken conservative promises he made to the usa.

there, is that what you were looking for?

what we need is a president that will shrink gooberment, lower taxes, get the gooberment out of our business, bedroom, and life as much as possible.

and in the foreseeable future, i dont see one.

d

 

[Red State]

dannyboy,
I'm having trouble understanding your last post. Are you trying to say that Bush was too nice, and that's why he ran the economy onto the rocks?

Are you for no government involvement in our day to day? Do you feel that the governmnet should create jobs outside of the bureaucracy, by rebuilding the countries infrastructure, like Obama has proposed? Or just lety the free market infuse capital as it sees fit?

Just wondering, I really don't see what you think is a solution.

 

[tieguy]

You both seem to be like lost sheep looking for the herd with your heads buried in the sand.....May I remind you'all, Modern day big gov't, big spending, socialist Republicans ran the show for the last eight years and continue to run the show as we speak. Accept responsibility and take it like a man...., or at least admit it.

Comon Diesel,

you're running stale. I've already called Bush and McCain socialist. I've already made that point that the two choices of Obama and McCain were both socialists and really inseperable.
With that in mind are you saying we should not have elected another socialist (Obama) as president?
I welcome your change in positions to a more conservative mindset.

I should also remind you that your democrats have run congress for the last two years and that this economy tanked while they had their hands on the wheel.

For some reason you want me to accept responsibility that you continue to moonwalk away from.

Generally a good idea to practice philosophies that one encourages others to adopt.

 

[tieguy]

Folks looks like Diesel is coming out of the liberal closet and joining us in resisting the socialist wave.

Lets welcome Diesel as he makes his transition to a more conservative mindset.

Welcome my brother

 

[dannyboy]

dannyboy,
I'm having trouble understanding your last post. Are you trying to say that Bush was too nice, and that's why he ran the economy onto the rocks?

Are you for no government involvement in our day to day? Do you feel that the governmnet should create jobs outside of the bureaucracy, by rebuilding the countries infrastructure, like Obama has proposed? Or just lety the free market infuse capital as it sees fit?

Just wondering, I really don't see what you think is a solution.

gooberment sticking its fingers into the private sector has never worked out to the betterment of the private sector.

there are several things that started out doing good, but the longer they exist, and are expanded, the further off course they have gotten.

the federal gooberment should never have the clout it has now over the states that it has now. it needs to stay focused on what it was created to do, not the micro managing that we have now.

the best job creations are done by the private sector. why should the gooberment do it?

yes, they have the ability to rebuild the basic infrastructure, but there is so much waste. take our interstate system. here on i81, they repaved the road. took them forever. problem was, right down the seam of the two lanes, water kept seeping out. water that was going down the seam, then came up and caused ice to form during the winter.

instead of fixing what they had done wrong, they spent months cutting groves into the brand new asphalt to allow the water to run off the road.

guess what, within two years the areas started to break loose and now it is in much worse shape then it was before they paved. ya wanna know how many millions of dollars were wasted?

and why should all that tax money go to the feds, and then allow them to decide where the money needs to be returned to the states, and what for, along with the strings they place on the funds.

sorry, our gooberment is not worthy of the trust you have placed in it. my family lived through the turmoil of what was the aftermath of ww1. and within a few years, we had the panacea ball rolling that brought around ww2. but the people swallowed what hitler promised. and gave away so many precious rights, in the name of security.

 

[tieguy]

Straight from Obama's mouth, I posted this on another thread regarding Obama's press conference on econmics.
Unemployment is addressed and hearing companies going out of business, financial instituions laying off, and the only job growth is with the governmentas Dannyboy noted. Now there's my concern.
Obama's Full Remarks On Economy

(CBS) Remarks of President-elect Barack Obama

Press Avail on the Economy

Thursday, November 7th, 2008

Chicago, Illinois

This morning, we woke to more sobering news about the state of our economy. The 240,000 jobs lost in October marks the 10th consecutive month that our economy has shed jobs. In total, we've lost nearly 1.2 million jobs this year, and more than 10 million Americans are now unemployed. Tens of millions of families are struggling to figure out how to pay the bills and stay in their homes. Their stories are an urgent reminder that we are facing the greatest economic challenge of our lifetime, and we must act swiftly to resolve them.

The United States has only one government and one President, and until January 20th of next year, that government is the current Administration. I have spoken to President Bush, and I appreciate his commitment to ensuring that his economic policy team keeps us fully informed as developments unfold.

Immediately after I become President, I will confront this economic crisis head-on by taking all necessary steps to ease the credit crisis, help hardworking families, and restore growth and prosperity.

This morning, I met with members of my Transition Economic Advisory Board, who will help guide the work of my transition team in developing a strong set of policies to respond to this crisis. We discussed several of the most immediate challenges facing our economy and key priorities on which to focus on in the days and weeks ahead:

First, we need a rescue plan for the middle class that invests in immediate efforts to create jobs and provides relief to families that are watching their paychecks shrink and their life savings disappear. A particularly urgent priority is a further extension of unemployment insurance benefits for workers who cannot find work in the increasingly weak economy. A fiscal stimulus plan that will jump-start economic growth is long overdue – and we should get it done.

Second, we must address the spreading impact of the financial crisis on other sectors of our economy: small businesses that are struggling to meet their payrolls and finance their holiday inventories; and state and municipal governments facing devastating budget cuts and tax increases. We must also remember that the financial crisis is increasingly global and requires a global response.

The news coming out of the auto industry this week reminds us of the hardship it faces – hardship that goes far beyond individual auto companies to the countless suppliers, small businesses and communities throughout our nation who depend on a vibrant American auto industry. The auto industry is the backbone of American manufacturing and a critical part of our attempt to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. I would like to see the Administration do everything they can to accelerate the retooling assistance that Congress has already enacted. In addition, I have made it a high priority for my transition team to work on additional policy options to help the auto industry adjust, weather the financial crisis, and succeed in producing fuel-efficient cars here in the United States. I have asked my team to explore what we can do under current law and whether additional legislation will be needed for this purpose.

Third, we will review the implementation of this Administration's financial program to ensure that our government's efforts are achieving their central goal of stabilizing financial markets while protecting taxpayers, helping homeowners and not unduly rewarding the management of financial firms that are receiving government assistance. It is critical that the Treasury work closely with the FDIC, HUD and other government agencies to use the substantial authority they already have to help families avoid foreclosure and stay in their homes.

Finally, as we monitor and address these immediate economic challenges, we will be moving forward in laying out a set of policies that will grow our middle-class and strengthen our economy in the long-term. We cannot afford to wait on moving forward on the key priorities that I identified during the campaign, including clean energy, health care, education and tax relief for middle class families.

My transition team will be working on each of these priorities in the weeks ahead, and I intend to reconvene this Advisory Board to discuss the best ideas for responding to these immediate problems.

Let me close by saying that I do not underestimate the enormity of the task that lies ahead. We have taken some major actions to date, and we will need further actions during this transition and subsequent months. Some of those choices will be difficult, but America is a strong and resilient country. I know that we will succeed if we put aside partisanship and work together as one nation. And that is what I intend to do.

(© MMVIII, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)

Notice the wording. Speaks as if he can do nothing until he assumes the reigns of power when he has been a member of congress and will be until he takes the presidency.

 

[The Other Side]

Notice the wording. Speaks as if he can do nothing until he assumes the reigns of power when he has been a member of congress and will be until he takes the presidency.

Maybe you should know this tie, OBAMA resigned his senate seat effective this sunday, so he WONT be in congress up and until his presidency.

Just the facts man.

 

[av8torntn]

Notice the wording. Speaks as if he can do nothing until he assumes the reigns of power when he has been a member of congress and will be until he takes the presidency.

He could have easily just said hey guys I was joking I am not going to raise income taxes or capital gains taxes after all. That would be leadership and we would begin to see a historic recovery.

 

[over9five]

In these economic times, I would respect a man who would say, "I don't care who you are, I am going to raise your taxes for a while till this mess is cleaned up".

Of course, an honest man like that would lose the election!

 

[av8torntn]

In these economic times, I would respect a man who would say, "I don't care who you are, I am going to raise your taxes for a while till this mess is cleaned up".

Of course, an honest man like that would lose the election!

I would respect a man that said look I understand government is and caused the problem so that is why my first order of business will be to remove governmental barriers to the markets. Of course that man would also lose the election.