MrFedEx
Engorged Member
Right now, FedEx stock is riding high, rising approximately 40% in value since October. Fred is happy, and those who bought-in early are also happy. But will they be happy a year from now, when the reality of the "new" Express and Ground take hold?
I think not, and here's why investors need to be wary. All of Fred's "savings" right now are simply claims, not concrete. In fact, right now he is spending huge money on airplanes, buyouts, and new Ground infrastructure. All of the savings are theoretical and hypothetical until they actually happen, and I don't think Fredward is going to make his numbers.
Look at the dual disasters of ROADS and it's baby brother DRA. Neither of these abysmal failures will ever realize the level of savings they are expecting. Consider the new Express employee. You know, the one who could give a crap about customer service or SPH. It could take 2 of the new breed to do what one experienced courier used to do, or maybe it will be "1.4", or "1.7" FTE's to equal the productivity power of one competent FTE.
Ground? Wait until these assclowns have on-calls, and then watch the fun and non-productivity begin. When Borat is forced to mix pickups in with his formerly straightline delivery route, watch the feces hit the fan. He could have gotten off 8-10 deliveries in the time it takes him to find an address and make a pickup. That is lost profit, Uncle Fred. Borat's lowered productivity will also cost the ISP, reducing their profit margins.
Besides the RLA, the biggest money-saving factor Fred has realized from his labor force is their high levels of productivity relative to what they're being paid. If you have a competent courier who can integrate his deliveries and pickups well, you have an employee who generates a high level of revenue. That is simply no longer going to be the case, because good employees are leaving, and will continue to leave, and they will be replaced by people who chose FedEx as a last resort or second choice. Word is getting out that FedEx is a low-quality employer, and that equates to incompetency and inefficiency at both the hourly and management levels.
As the economy improves, the same thing wlll happen at Ground. Why would you put yourself through that indignity when a real job is available with a company that pays more and also has benefits? This is where on-calls will drive a nail into Ground's huge cost advantage. When Borat sees all of the extra crap he has to endure every day, maybe he'll apply somewhere else where he doesn't have to work so hard for so little in return. Eventually, Borat's ISP is going to have to pay more, which means Fred will save less as he pays the ISP a higher percentage to maintain the ISP's profit margin.
Investors beware. Maybe you should dump your stock before Wall Street realizes that Fred has pulled a fast one.
I think not, and here's why investors need to be wary. All of Fred's "savings" right now are simply claims, not concrete. In fact, right now he is spending huge money on airplanes, buyouts, and new Ground infrastructure. All of the savings are theoretical and hypothetical until they actually happen, and I don't think Fredward is going to make his numbers.
Look at the dual disasters of ROADS and it's baby brother DRA. Neither of these abysmal failures will ever realize the level of savings they are expecting. Consider the new Express employee. You know, the one who could give a crap about customer service or SPH. It could take 2 of the new breed to do what one experienced courier used to do, or maybe it will be "1.4", or "1.7" FTE's to equal the productivity power of one competent FTE.
Ground? Wait until these assclowns have on-calls, and then watch the fun and non-productivity begin. When Borat is forced to mix pickups in with his formerly straightline delivery route, watch the feces hit the fan. He could have gotten off 8-10 deliveries in the time it takes him to find an address and make a pickup. That is lost profit, Uncle Fred. Borat's lowered productivity will also cost the ISP, reducing their profit margins.
Besides the RLA, the biggest money-saving factor Fred has realized from his labor force is their high levels of productivity relative to what they're being paid. If you have a competent courier who can integrate his deliveries and pickups well, you have an employee who generates a high level of revenue. That is simply no longer going to be the case, because good employees are leaving, and will continue to leave, and they will be replaced by people who chose FedEx as a last resort or second choice. Word is getting out that FedEx is a low-quality employer, and that equates to incompetency and inefficiency at both the hourly and management levels.
As the economy improves, the same thing wlll happen at Ground. Why would you put yourself through that indignity when a real job is available with a company that pays more and also has benefits? This is where on-calls will drive a nail into Ground's huge cost advantage. When Borat sees all of the extra crap he has to endure every day, maybe he'll apply somewhere else where he doesn't have to work so hard for so little in return. Eventually, Borat's ISP is going to have to pay more, which means Fred will save less as he pays the ISP a higher percentage to maintain the ISP's profit margin.
Investors beware. Maybe you should dump your stock before Wall Street realizes that Fred has pulled a fast one.
