Will coronavirus kill me? Online calculator

Discussion in 'UPS Discussions' started by 35years, Mar 22, 2020.

  1. 35years

    35years Well-Known Member

    What are your chances of survival?
    Post your results here...

    Link to calculator:
    California projects 56 percent of population will be infected with coronavirus over 8-week period.

    Are you over 50?
    Are you a driver with lots of social contact (UPS)?
    Do you have diabetes, asthma, heat disease etc?
    Is your work environment sanitary?
    Does the U.S. test extensively?

    Study reased this week by Imerial College London,
    WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Imperial College London


    In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 Page 7 of 20 is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality. Figure 1: Unmitigated epidemic scenarios for GB and the US. (A) Projected deaths per day per 100,000 population in GB and US. (B) Case epidemic trajectories across the US by state. For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times greater than the maximum supply in both countries (Figure 2). The aim of mitigation is to reduce the impact of an epidemic by flattening the curve, reducing peak incidence and overall deaths (Figure 2). Since the aim of mitigation is to minimise mortality, the interventions need to remain in place for as much of the epidemic period as possible. Introducing such interventions too early risks allowing transmission to return once they are lifted (if insufficient herd immunity has developed); it is therefore necessary to balance the timing of introduction with the scale 0 5 10 15 20 25 Deaths per day per 100,000 population (A) GB
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
  2. 35years

    35years Well-Known Member

    I am over 55, have diabetes and asthma

    My calculator estimates I have a 5%-13% chance of death from the virus if I have no current symptoms...
    1 in 20 to 1 in 9 chance of contracting the virus + death
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
  3. Returntosender

    Returntosender Well-Known Member

  4. Returntosender

    Returntosender Well-Known Member

  5. Poop Head

    Poop Head Lovin' every minute of it!

    Our water started tasting funny recently. Can't seem to get myself to stop drinking it though.
  6. Yolo

    Yolo Active Member

    We have rampant obesity and tobacco use amongst our feeder drivers. Most of them wont make it to Independence Day.
  7. olroadbeech

    olroadbeech Happy Verified UPSer

    both of us high risk. over 60 with diabetes ( spouse ) and asthma ( me. ) but we are staying home.
  8. olroadbeech

    olroadbeech Happy Verified UPSer

    our enemies including ourselves have been working on biological weapons for decades.

    this may be a good wake up call on response and preparedness for the future.

    who knows, maybe this time it wasn't an by chance.
  9. Brownslave688

    Brownslave688 You want a toe? I can get you a toe.

    A little over 1% right now in the USA. Add in all of the people that have had it and not been tested and it’s probably more like .1%
  10. Box Ox

    Box Ox Well-Known Member

    I’ll be pretty upset if this thing takes @rod after the Civil War couldn’t.
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  11. Indecisi0n

    Indecisi0n Well-Known Member

    I'm going to die
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  12. over9five

    over9five Moderator Staff Member

    Some day I suppose some new virus will be an extinction event.
  13. Indecisi0n

    Indecisi0n Well-Known Member

    Who cares. I'll already be dead.
  14. olroadbeech

    olroadbeech Happy Verified UPSer

    hope so
  15. MECH-lift

    MECH-lift Union Brother

    I’ll believe in coronavirus when @Birdblue gets fired
  16. BadIdeaGuy

    BadIdeaGuy Coronavirus? What coronavirus?

    For a person in the "endangered" category, you sure do hope for a lot of people dying.
    I hope you get to experience just what you are wishing upon others.
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  17. Re-Raise

    Re-Raise Well-Known Member

    I’ve put my money in worse!
  18. rod

    rod #1 on Upstates "list"

    Not as upset as me.
  19. Re-Raise

    Re-Raise Well-Known Member

    Was the Spanish flu in 1918 this bad?

    I heard they suspended all buggy travel for a while
  20. Things was different back then. Nobody had Clorox wipes and they definitely didn't have the medical technology that we have now