UPS in 2022

Discussion in 'UPS Discussions' started by magoo57, Dec 16, 2007.

  1. magoo57

    magoo57 Member

    Well folks, in a week Peak is over. Then we have the New Year and our thoughts focus on the future. So let's start a 'thought experiment' as the great Einstein did.......
    What will UPS look like in 15 years in the Peak of 2022?
    Oh, I see the long knives are already out. If you think that our company will no longer be solvent, give the reasons and the consequences(Fredex conducting a hostile takeover will be annulled by the Justice Department. Anti-trust laws.) If you really believe that you will be delivering stops in the brown version of the Jetson's flying cars, point to the scientific articles. If you believe that all supes will be cloned from a spore, give your sources. ( Robot deliverymen are nothing but a steal from the movie I, Robot. Teamsters would never allow this to happen.)
    So, with no further ado, I will start. Here are my 'predictions' all based on off-the-rack technologies currently available....
    1) Diad 22 will have the following:
    a) all stops prerecorded as soon as the preloader places the package on the shelf;
    b) the ability to photo all recipents and through self contained cameras with face recognition, matched to the ID swiped by the card reader (or fingerprint reading)
    c) ability to swipe credit cards so as to make COD checks a thing of the past
    d) package cars will not allow sliding doors of package cars to open except by diad signal
    e) package cars will not be able to start until the diad is in the cradle
    f) diads will have bluetooth generation 10 technology to allow centers to speak with drivers. Hundreds or phrases can be 'spoken' by diad 22 in a multitude of languages
    g) diad 22 will have instant ability to contact emergency services such as 911
    2) The package cars will have the following:
    a) scanners at the back door of all cars. This will scan the packages that the preloader is carrying into the car. A beep will sound to prevent the preloader misloads
    b) When the package is scanned by the backdoor, the appropriate spot on the shelf will light up by LED. The preloader knows where to load the package.
    Overhead secondary scanners will beep when pacages of the same address are not together, when a section needs to be resnaked, or add/pulls are needed.
    c) the 'back' of all package cars are detachable from the cab/engine of the cars. With two 'back's to every car , preloaders can load the car for the following day instead of filling a boxline and then the cars.
    d) all cars will be non-fossil fuel
    3) Competitors and changes in service
    a) more of our business will be providing for aged baby boomers who cannot leave their retirement homes. Drivers will dread the Happy Hills Rest Home like they now dread the Wal-Mart or the Pottery Barn.
    b) DHL will give up in North America . A bidding war will ensue between UPS and Fedex. UPS will bid mainly to make certain that Fedex doesn't get DHL. Post Office hasn't gone private yet.
    d) NDA letters of documents will be a thing of the past with secure internet .
    e) guaranteed ground coast-to- coast in 2 days.(48 contiguous states) as high speed trains are constructed
    g)nightime home deliveries. Possibly a guaranteed 2 hour delivery time frame. RFID technology can 'call' the customer with a hour's warning. Address changes can be done instantly by the dreiver or the preloader. ESIS clerks and Customer Counters are now just fond memories.

    I am certain more than a few of you got a chuckle from this exercise, but what say you?
    P.S. One last prediction: UPS stock price still at $75.00
  2. BigBrownSanta

    BigBrownSanta New Member

    Superscanner that:

    1. Reads and stores pkg size and weight for robotic preload arms that load the trucks.
    2. Relabels pkgs with bad addresses based on driver's last delivery GPS coordinate.

    Robotic arms that:

    1. Unload trailers in about 3 min per trailer.
    2. Load pkg cars based on AI software programs. (Robotic arm still misloads pkgs due to PAS/EDD's built-in stupidity.)
    3. Still damage pkgs due to AI program being written by IE dept.

    Package cars:

    1. Will not allow sliding doors of package cars to open except by diad signal based on GPS coordinates.
    2. Still without power steering, but easier to drive due to new robotic uniforms.

    Robotic uniforms that:

    1. Enable carrying of up to 500 lbs at a time, two wheelers phased out.
    2. Force drivers to walk at a brisk 4 steps per second.

    DIAD 22:

    1. Still has signature key precisely where the customer grabs the DIAD.
    2. Built in to the robotic uniform which flips up upon arrival to the customer. (Customers upset because DIAD has to be signed at crotch level).


    1. Are reduced to robot repair guys or,
    2. Phased out to pay for the Central States buyout in 2008...
  3. magoo57

    magoo57 Member

    BrownSanta, your tongue is firmly in your cheek, but I had not thought of a robotic uniform. The closest I have seen that idea was Sigourney's Exo suit in the best of the Alien movies, number 2("Let go of her, you b++ch!"). I certainly see this in an unload situation, but not in a driver application.
    I know how giddy we all on this site get when we start kvetching about PAS/PAL, but really, I am old enough to remember the drivers screaming about diad 1 and how could we trust any system except a person's signature on a piece of paper? This too, shall pass.
    The robot arms remind me of the chipmunks in the canned tomato factory in the old Looney Tunes cartoons. I know you were using this to comic effect, but I can't see it. Hydraulics, maybe. But I firmly believe that drivers, unloaders and preloaders will not be replaced by machines in my lifetime. Pickoffs could be replaced and have been in that new hub.But those jobs will be here for a while.

    BLACKBOX Life is a Highway...

    This is what I hope the future brings:

    No more apartment deliveries everything goes to apartment manager, if you want apt dels this will be an extra charge.

    Their will be a picture of the next stop on your dashboard screen resi or commercial.

    All residential stops will be called ahead to expect driver and if COD not ready driver will not attempt delivery.

    There will be technology to temporarily disable dogs.

    Your truck will be programmed to take the most efficient route. You will not need to drive, you are now classified as a "distributor" and will do all the running. If not back in reasonable time truck's horn will automatically start honking.

    The Diad will no longer be a separate device. It will be flat and wrapped around your arm (like NFL Quarterbacks use) with full video and consignee recognition.
  5. special delivery

    special delivery New Member

    Drivers will be able to get online and see exacly the stops they will have for the next day.:angry:
  6. HazMatMan

    HazMatMan New Member

    Hopefully, I will be retired..:happy-very:
  7. JustTired

    JustTired free at last.......

    In 2022 the position of Industrial Engineer falls out of favor with most companies. In a bold move, UPS hires tens of thousands of Industrial Engineering students at minimum wage to replace the Teamster workforce.

    The plan is scrapped, however, when it is determined that those hired to load pkg cars know where the pkg should go but can't get past the mountain of pkgs they have already loaded to put it there. Those hired to drive know which stop is next but have no idea how to get there.

    Rather than admit that maybe the old workforce knew more than the company gave them credit for, UPS brings in "green card" workers from south of the border by the bus loads. They are no more efficient than the IE workers, but, at least they could read the delivery notices.
  8. Fnix

    Fnix Active Member

    UPS can already implement a moving wall at the end of a trailer and it moves slowly towards the door and pushes all the boxes onto a chute where the boxes are sorted onto conveyors. It's faster and you dont need an unloader.
  9. Dutch Dawg

    Dutch Dawg Active Member

    We were just discussing keyless entry for the bulk doors in our building as one of the package car manufacturers was here doing R&D for that very reason. One of the rookies questioned why the company would pursue that technology, when they’ve yet to devise a passenger side mirror that’s easily adjusted on any of their vehicles. I had to set him straight and point out to him on paper the company would be reaping big rewards from the lock investment by adding more stops to a driver for time saved ratio. He questioned my response by pointing out all the time he wastes adjusting the mirror on a regular basis. I tell you... some people just don’t get it.
  10. JustTired

    JustTired free at last.......

    I'm pretty sure you were being sarcastic (at least that's the way I took it), but just in case you weren't.................... Unless the door opens on a voice command, I don't see any time savings. I can pop that key in there just as fast as it takes to pull the chain to open the door. Any driver that's been around (and closes the bulkhead door) could do the same. The voice command thing does have some merit though. Until the door answered back that it can't open because there's 500 lbs of packages jammed up against it.
  11. magoo57

    magoo57 Member

    The keyless diad opening of back doors will save a lot of time when drivers are approaching the back doors to put pickups on. Also the diad 22 will automatically LOCK doors when the driver/diad is more than ,say, 20 feet away.
  12. freeloader

    freeloader geek

    Will that have a direct impact on whether you come down with some type of "itis" the next morning?
  13. JustTired

    JustTired free at last.......

    This UPSers day in 2022:

    Get up and grab a cup of coffee.
    Log on to Brown Cafe and find out things haven't changed much since 2007.
    Laugh a little.......feel sorry for some.......and realize that my decision to retire in 2008 was justified.
    Get on the treadmill to lose that extra weight typically put on by someone who is not being run to death.
    Cash my check and look for something to buy online.
  14. Big Babooba

    Big Babooba Well-Known Member

    If the door answered me back,I would know that it was time to put down the bottle.:knockedout:
  15. Channahon

    Channahon New Member

    If you really believe that you will be delivering stops in the brown version of the Jetson's flying cars, point to the scientific articles.

    I don't have a scientific article, but have been waiting for the Jetson's flying cars since the 60's. Kinda disappointed it never came about at the turn of the century. Oh well, probably not in my lifetime. Loved the show, wouldn't mind having a Rosie the Robot around the house.
  16. moreluck

    moreluck golden ticket member

    The financial section in 2022:

    An amazing 15 yr. run for this sleeping giant from 2007. Three, 2 for 1 splits after the price of the stock was driven beyond the $100 mark three separate times. The shareholders of this stock are rolling in their greenbacks as this article goes to press.

    All the 'naysayers' are a site to behold crying in their beers because they didn't jump on the gravy train when they had many chances. This stock proved the old adage to be true..."You snooze, you lose".

    (from my thoughts to God's ear)
  17. browniehound

    browniehound Well-Known Member

    Guy and gals, I think you are all getting ahead of yourselfs. You are taking about 2022 and not 2122, correct? 2022 is 15 short years from now.

    My guess is the company will advance our technology to keep pace with the times, but our vehicles will be slowly phased out, meaning there will still be some package cars without power steering.

    You guys are talking about DIAD 22? UPS dosen't upgrade this fast. Based on our history, we'll be looking at DIAD 8 or 9 in 2022. I base this assumption on prior progressions. We went from DIAD 1 to DIAD 4 in the years 1991-present (17 years counting '08) so its reasonable to predict that UPS will produce the same amount in the next 15 years giving us DIAD VIII!

    My guess is we will be doing more residential than ever before because internet sales are going to increase over the next decade as people would rather sit at home and shop than fight mall traffic.

    So I foresee us gaining volume that we don't want (house calls from internet sales) and losing the volume we do want (businesses, which are bulk PU's to buk deliveriesl which means higher profit margins) to our competition.

    I tried to give a realistic prediction as to the direction of our compmany. Some people chose to talk about flying cars and robots (which is great if your dreaming).

    So can I re-phrase the topic and ask in reality how you think we will be running the operation in'22. Let's face it, there will be no robots or flying cars in use for UPS in '22.

    The oldest package cars in the fleet now are '84s (thats the oldest I have seen), so there are going to be many package cars made in 2000 come the year '22.

    So, it looks like by this year all the non powe steering will be gone from the fleet! But I'm sure there will be 1 or 2 kicking around some centers. What else do you guys think?
  18. UPS Driver

    UPS Driver Guest

    We will no longer have preloaders or assigned routes. cars no longer parked inside building along belt. instead there will be a bucket slide system. that consist of individual slide area for each route that can hold enough packages to fill a package car installed running along the belt, a robotic arm will PAL then push packages off the belt as they pass by into each slide area. drivers will be told which car to use and what route they will do when they punch in. this way the company can design new routes each day and have the option to choose the size of package car and the driver who will run it based on his historical profile. the driver will back up to the slide of the route assigned to him and load his own car, he will also be required to unload his pickups each day then park the car in the lot. this will eliminate preloaders, carwashers, and package car unloaders.
  19. tups

    tups New Member

    Brownie, Sorry, but in the center I work in near Boston, the package car age averages around 1980. There are at least 25-35 older than 1977, and the majority of them made between 1978 and 1984. There are maybe 20 that are newer than 1985, and none newer than 1987. I work in the Center thwere package cars go to die. So in 2022, in my center all the cars will be at least 1980 to 2000, if we're lucky.
  20. 2Slow

    2Slow Member

    I drove my '83 P1000 today. 300,000 plus miles, god knows how many engines. I've blown up a couple.