Amazon will take all your ignorant route buyers

[Oldfart]

Claims? Really don't think that is an obstacle. Retention, that will be the contractors problem. Poor service, safety, undelivered packages? Tell me something X doesn't experience.
Fred S laughed at Bezo 5 years ago when he mentioned solving his shipping cost by delivering there own packages. Fred ain't laughing anymore.

Losing 2% of highly discounted volume isn't gonna make or break us. Just like when we lost the William-Sonoma account to Brown. The sun still shined the next day and we survived.

 

[Exec32]

Everyone is looking at it from Amazon's side. Let's flip it.
Amazon touts profits of up to $300,000. That that number is for 40 routes running at full capacity for a full year. As an investor, is it worth it? That's a lot of work for $7,500 per truck per YEAR.

As an investor this industry is not worth investing in. It is capital heavy, and time consuming. You have to reach a very large scale to even notice a good return. It's not Amazon, at least they are being honest about the meager return. However, if you are an owner operator and deploy low cost resources, (trucks) that margin will grow. Your salary is included in the expense side, and you may retain a profit. It all depends on how much one will be involved.

 

[bbsam]

Claims? Really don't think that is an obstacle. Retention, that will be the contractors problem. Poor service, safety, undelivered packages? Tell me something X doesn't experience.
Fred S laughed at Bezo 5 years ago when he mentioned solving his shipping cost by delivering there own packages. Fred ain't laughing anymore.

Something X is learning, you should realize and Bezos will learn is that “the contractor’s problem” is also the company’s problem.

Customers don’t give a about the contractor.

 

[Exec32]

Wait 5 years . Then we'll see how this thing plays out. Word of mouth is always either an employers best friend or his worst enemy and once contractor gets the reputation of being an employer who demands too much and pays too little he'll never keep up with the shippers ever increasing demands.

You heard it here..X ain't got 5 years. Walmart and Amazon will.make sure of that. There are two things that can happen, X expectations and forecasts will be significantly reduced, and reflect in its share price or they will go the way of Airborne. Both will be painful. X does have an ace up its slave,(sleeve) on all future cost Increases put on to the contractor, reduce their revenue and make up for some short falls.
X is in the business of delivering, Amazon and walmart are much more diversified. The days of just 2 carriers are over. What's most ironic is that Amazon is taking a page from the playbook that X perfected. Contractor Model.

 

[It will be fine]

X bottom line will be significantly hurt when Walmart resorts to utilizing there own infrastructure and trucking resources to deliver there own packages. Two of my trucks would lose 30% of there volume if walmart did this. Just imagine what X loss would be.
Walmart will do it, they have no choice. X will lose market share, ups not as much.
Amazon is redefining the shopping experience, bringing the store to your door. The last mile element to amazon is only one piece of its model, for X it is the only piece to theirs. Walmart will deploy a carrier element to their model also, and will succeed.
Both Amazon and Walmart will leave the scraps, unprofitable deliveries, to X and ups.
If you say they cant make it happen, well I say you are ignoring all the factors that are forcing them to do it. In the short term, X will bargain for cost to win accounts, this will be short lived. Welcome to the new world of ecommerce and delivery, one and the same. X didn't see this coming 5 years ago, or they failed to respond.

Walmart’s business model revolves around getting people in the stores. That’s why they offer free shipping to the store for pickup. They want traffic flow, they won’t cut their own legs out.

 

[Exec32]

Something X is learning, you should realize and Bezos will learn is that “the contractor’s problem” is also the company’s problem.

Customers don’t give a about the contractor.

BUT man don't they save the X Corp a lot of money... They will do the same for Amazon.

 

[Exec32]

Walmart’s business model revolves around getting people in the stores. That’s why they offer free shipping to the store for pickup. They want traffic flow, they won’t cut their own legs out.

Walmarts business model has evolved. It is about the sale, does not matter where. They will not be building as many stores. They will also increase their use of contractors.
Look it is about adapting, I'm sure sears is good example of what happens when you don't. Walmart will have to deliver packages, it would be ignorant to think that has not been on their radar for some time, espeacially with Amazon taking market share chunks.
You know they can use their own resources to get site to store packages to their own stores. Will happen soon. They have distribution centers everywhere, and if you haven't noticed they are utilizing contractors and building a network right now.

 

[Exec32]

Losing 2% of highly discounted volume isn't gonna make or break us. Just like when we lost the William-Sonoma account to Brown. The sun still shined the next day and we survived.

It's about the entry of new carriers. That will have a huge effect on X futures

 

[bacha29]

The market could go in a lot of different directions but based on what appears to be happening XG contractors are in a vulnerable position. Now one of the conditions AMZN has publicly stated is that their contractors have to provide their employees with something in the way of a benefit package. That is a carrot most XG contractors aren't dangling and it therefore has to count for something when it comes to recruiting and retention.
In addition I've never heard if AMZN will grant and recognize goodwill. If not it will likely make investment in an already unattractive business even less attractive. Likewise, opening up the books to an interested buyer and that buyer discovers shrinking margins over the previous 2-3 years and a contract nearing expiration that contractor will be lucky get a "take it off your hands" offer let alone one that is in range of what he wants for it.
The timeline for selling under the most favorable terms appears to be growing at least somewhat shorter if not a whole lot shorter.
What do you guys think the timeline is. My guess is that your best time to bail is between now and the next 2-3 years.

 

[Fred's Myth]

Walmart’s business model revolves around getting people in the stores. That’s why they offer free shipping to the store for pickup. They want traffic flow, they won’t cut their own legs out.

Even Walmart recognizes that the era of the Superstore is over, and is shrinking the size of its retail outlets. The ever-increasing ecommerce footprint is the wave of the future, and the future is now. They have already disclosed the likelihood that their Superstores will become distribution centers.
Wal-Mart is an underdog in the world of small stores. It's trying to change.

Is that sweat breaking out on your forehead? Maybe you can cut a deal with Walmart as a last-mile contractor.

 

[zeev]

The market could go in a lot of different directions but based on what appears to be happening XG contractors are in a vulnerable position. Now one of the conditions AMZN has publicly stated is that their contractors have to provide their employees with something in the way of a benefit package. That is a carrot most XG contractors aren't dangling and it therefore has to count for something when it comes to recruiting and retention.
In addition I've never heard if AMZN will grant and recognize goodwill. If not it will likely make investment in an already unattractive business even less attractive. Likewise, opening up the books to an interested buyer and that buyer discovers shrinking margins over the previous 2-3 years and a contract nearing expiration that contractor will be lucky get a "take it off your hands" offer let alone one that is in range of what he wants for it.
The timeline for selling under the most favorable terms appears to be growing at least somewhat shorter if not a whole lot shorter.
What do you guys think the timeline is. My guess is that your best time to bail is between now and the next 2-3 years.

Bail as son as possible Amazon is coming hard and ground is in the crosshairs

 

[bbsam]

So you guys are saying that in the next few years, I may lose 30 to 40% of my business?

And that rather than simply downsize and lay people off I should sell out now?

And that the end is already known and Amazon has won?

It’s obvious why most of you are not in business.

 

[bacha29]

So you guys are saying that in the next few years, I may lose 30 to 40% of my business?

And that rather than simply downsize and lay people off I should sell out now?

And that the end is already known and Amazon has won?

It’s obvious why most of you are not in business.

if you're in a position to downsize you could if you're not too heavily leveraged but given that contractors were given little choice but to position themselves for growth or leave a complete reversal of direction won't be quite so easy..

 

[It will be fine]

Even Walmart recognizes that the era of the Superstore is over, and is shrinking the size of its retail outlets. The ever-increasing ecommerce footprint is the wave of the future, and the future is now. They have already disclosed the likelihood that their Superstores will become distribution centers.
Wal-Mart is an underdog in the world of small stores. It's trying to change.

Is that sweat breaking out on your forehead? Maybe you can cut a deal with Walmart as a last-mile contractor.

You guys do know e-commerce expands well beyond Amazon and Walmart right?
Every other company still requires cheap shipping and they aren’t going to hand that over to their competition. Joe’s widgets isn’t going to have Amazon or Walmart deliver their product.

 

[bbsam]

if you're in a position to downsize you could if you're not too heavily leveraged but given that contractors were given little choice but to position themselves for growth or leave a complete reversal of direction won't be quite so easy..

Nonsense. Firstly, even laying off one driver easily makes the payment on 3 trucks.

If there is truly such a steep drop off, X easily increases revenue by pumping in smart post, something that has been hinted at anyway.

Amazon will have to prove that they can handle all of their own before I’ll believe they are a threat to take substantial volume from other shippers. That is quite a ways down the road.

Ground is still having to prove that.

 

[Fred's Myth]

You guys do know e-commerce expands well beyond Amazon and Walmart right?
Every other company still requires cheap shipping and they aren’t going to hand that over to their competition. Joe’s widgets isn’t going to have Amazon or Walmart deliver their product.

And the high volume shippers that support your business are precisely the ones that will be targeted by Amazon, because volume is where the profit is. FedEx wouldn't exist without volume.
A prudent businessman will have a plan in place to adjust, accommodate, or accede.

 

[59 Dano]

Faster delivery times means keeping people out of local stores

People already aren't going to local stores.

 

[59 Dano]

Fred S laughed at Bezo 5 years ago when he mentioned solving his shipping cost by delivering there own packages. Fred ain't laughing anymore.

In the last 5 years, FedEx saw revenues grow from $45 billion to $65 billion. I bet Fred is terrified.

 

[59 Dano]

So you guys are saying that in the next few years, I may lose 30 to 40% of my business?

And that rather than simply downsize and lay people off I should sell out now?

And that the end is already known and Amazon has won?

It’s obvious why most of you are not in business.

People were saying that Amazon Air was going to crush FedEx when it began operations more than 2 years ago. Haven't heard a peep since.

The same people are saying that Amazon can not only run an extensive national P&D network, but can do so so well that the competition will be annihilated seemingly from the outset... even though they've shown no reason why they should be expected to.

It's cheap seat chatter.

 

[59 Dano]

Amazon will have to prove that they can handle all of their own before I’ll believe they are a threat to take substantial volume from other shippers.

LOL, several here are already convinced!