Amazon will take all your ignorant route buyers

[Exec32]

LOL, several here are already convinced!

And a few million elsewhere.

 

[Exec32]

People were saying that Amazon Air was going to crush FedEx when it began operations more than 2 years ago. Haven't heard a peep since.

The same people are saying that Amazon can not only run an extensive national P&D network, but can do so so well that the competition will be annihilated seemingly from the outset... even though they've shown no reason why they should be expected to.

It's cheap seat chatter.

Just to get you caught up..cheap talk
Phase one of the Amazon sort facility, encompassing 440 acres is scheduled for completion in 2020, while the remaining 479 acres will be developed by 2025-2027 during phase two. Amazon eventually plans to have over 100 aircraft based at CVG with over 200 daily flights and 15,000 employees.
They are called phases, and Amazon will hurt X bottom line. Amazon will use X model and compete. Last, Amazon is much more diversified and flooded with cash.
2 years, really?

 

[59 Dano]

And a few million elsewhere.

Everything works well in a limited, controlled environment.

 

[59 Dano]

Just to get you caught up..cheap talk
Phase one of the Amazon sort facility, encompassing 440 acres is scheduled for completion in 2020, while the remaining 479 acres will be developed by 2025-2027 during phase two. Amazon eventually plans to have over 100 aircraft based at CVG with over 200 daily flights and 15,000 employees.
They are called phases, and Amazon will hurt X bottom line. Amazon will use X model and compete. Last, Amazon is much more diversified and flooded with cash.
2 years, really?

Your predictions are based on what their Wiki entry says they hope to accomplish? LOL!!!

Guess what -- plans change.

 

[Exec32]

So you guys are saying that in the next few years, I may lose 30 to 40% of my business?

And that rather than simply downsize and lay people off I should sell out now?

And that the end is already known and Amazon has won?

It’s obvious why most of you are not in business.

Bro you ain't in business, you just work there and take all the risks. Of course you will tell everyone how much you make, and there are a few that do well. But the point of this thread is to highlight the impact this will have on your industry, or I'm sorry X industry, and your investor class.
You like most will try to spin it, but hopefully any buyer out there will do their due diligence and stay away or offer you far less than what you where expecting, or go to Amazon buy in for far less and the same. Of course you could keep working for X and have nothing but some old trucks and bad memories to leave someone, because your business dont exists.
Honestly I believe most of you on Brown cafe hear, are X cronies still pushing the same crap trying to fool unsuspecting people that you guys are making great money stress free. Dont listen to these guys people they have a conflict of interest.

 

[Exec32]

The market could go in a lot of different directions but based on what appears to be happening XG contractors are in a vulnerable position. Now one of the conditions AMZN has publicly stated is that their contractors have to provide their employees with something in the way of a benefit package. That is a carrot most XG contractors aren't dangling and it therefore has to count for something when it comes to recruiting and retention.
In addition I've never heard if AMZN will grant and recognize goodwill. If not it will likely make investment in an already unattractive business even less attractive. Likewise, opening up the books to an interested buyer and that buyer discovers shrinking margins over the previous 2-3 years and a contract nearing expiration that contractor will be lucky get a "take it off your hands" offer let alone one that is in range of what he wants for it.
The timeline for selling under the most favorable terms appears to be growing at least somewhat shorter if not a whole lot shorter.
What do you guys think the timeline is. My guess is that your best time to bail is between now and the next 2-3 years.

The timeline for selling is the question because you are exactly right that the future landscape looks difficult and shrinking margins will be hard to hide from foolish buyers. Especially if they can now choose to either start on up for Amazon, or buy an existing business with Amazon. Anybody here willing to sell for close 10000,,,,right I dont think so.

 

[Brown echo]

Why would Amazon want B to B customers? That’s not the network they are building. They have no interest in being a common carrier. They just want to deliver their products cheaper.

They have apparently limitless growth potential but much smaller margins still make their contracts less attractive in comparison. At least for me, I don’t have much interest in running hundreds of trucks daily.

agree, amzn has been about growth

 

[Exec32]

You guys do know e-commerce expands well beyond Amazon and Walmart right?
Every other company still requires cheap shipping and they aren’t going to hand that over to their competition. Joe’s widgets isn’t going to have Amazon or Walmart deliver their product.

Name the next guy that ships and sells on their scale.
It's not just a lost customer, they will also be a competitor. It is wise for them to start to solve the last mile for themselves. There just might not be enough room in this industry for many companies that simply just ship others products..Amazon has targeted X, walmart just followed suit. USPS will be fine. UPS will not be impacted as much initially. X, well fred is watching things crumble right before eyes.

 

[Exec32]

Your predictions are based on what their Wiki entry says they hope to accomplish? LOL!!!

Guess what -- plans change.

Actua

Your predictions are based on what their Wiki entry says they hope to accomplish? LOL!!!

Guess what -- plans change.

Your point?

 

[bbsam]

Bro you ain't in business, you just work there and take all the risks. Of course you will tell everyone how much you make, and there are a few that do well. But the point of this thread is to highlight the impact this will have on your industry, or I'm sorry X industry, and your investor class.
You like most will try to spin it, but hopefully any buyer out there will do their due diligence and stay away or offer you far less than what you where expecting, or go to Amazon buy in for far less and the same. Of course you could keep working for X and have nothing but some old trucks and bad memories to leave someone, because your business dont exists.
Honestly I believe most of you on Brown cafe hear, are X cronies still pushing the same crap trying to fool unsuspecting people that you guys are making great money stress free. Dont listen to these guys people they have a conflict of interest.

Bro, you’ve lost your mind. We’re the middle class.

In the end, we’re going to get screwed. Tomorrow? Six months from now? Ten years? Who knows? Fact is, it’s happened to the working class for generations. It’s not gonna change because of Amazon. It’s gonna change because that’s what happens when capitalism moves from sector to sector.

Personally, if it happened in a year, I wouldn’t really care too much. Declare bankruptcy and move on and wait for the mother in law to fall over dead. The idea that that my entire existence revolves around X is incredibly flawed. Almost as much as the thought that without X I will be destitute. There is so much more to life. I would have thought that by now, after being discarded by X, you would have figured that out.

 

[bacha29]

Here's an angle you guys aren't talking much about. Settling the class actions out of court X didn't have to admit to any fault, liability or wrong doing of any kind. While the eventual outcome was clouded and a bit inconclusive the process seemingly granted a degree of legal legitimacy to X's contractor model and paved the runway for other entrants using the same basic model given that it has been tested in court and could accelerate the building of new competitor networks.
If Trump, the DOJ and the prospects of anti trust lawsuit doesn't scare Bezos, there's nothing Fat Freddy could do that would keep him up at night.

No matter which factors are at fault even something as small as a 10% reduction in the size of the daily truck load is going to hurt especially if you're in a rural area where daily route mileage makes consolidating routes a not so easy thing to do.

 

[Exec32]

I have my man, I never stopped investing in real estate, and I still own a trucking company. With that mindset you should be fine.
Oh and get this i have my own authority and DOT number.

 

[Exec32]

Everything works well in a limited, controlled environment.

Said the employee..

 

[bbsam]

I have my man, I never stopped investing in real estate, and I still own a trucking company. With that mindset you should be fine.
Oh and get this i have my own authority and DOT number.

 

[dmac1]

You guys do know e-commerce expands well beyond Amazon and Walmart right?
Every other company still requires cheap shipping and they aren’t going to hand that over to their competition. Joe’s widgets isn’t going to have Amazon or Walmart deliver their product.

Joe's widgets may just have Amazon and Walmart sell their products.

 

[Exec32]

Two years ago, Fred S told stock analysts that concerns about Amazon shaking up the package shipping industry were "fueled by fantastical" reports. "In all likelihood, the primary deliverers of e-commerce shipments for the foreseeable future will be UPS, the U.S. Postal Service and FedEx," Smith said.
Amazon in 2017 splurged $13.2 billion on warehouses and other logistics buildup for its operations in North America, according to securities filings that combine Amazon's cash capital spending with its additions of physical real estate under leases and other financing arrangements. That was five times the comparable figure in 2015. For comparison, FedEx and United Parcel Service Inc. each had more than $5 billion in capital spending over the last year. This spending surge fits Amazon's pattern: When it sees potential in a new area of business, it puts its foot on the gas pedal.

This comes from Bloomberg article that was written almost a year ago. Again it's not about losing Amazon as a customer, they will be another carrier, or to put it short your competition.

 

[Exec32]

Joe's widgets may just have Amazon and Walmart sell their products.

Amazon doesn't compete with Joe's Widgets, they just provide a platform for them to sell. Another diverse angle to their business model that no other carrier has.

 

[SmithBarney]

No, the bottom line is No single company can carry all the AMZ freight, that's why UPS/FDX/USPS/CONTRACTORS/BIRDS/DRONES/NAKED TURTLES all get a cut of the action..

 

[SmithBarney]

Amazon doesn't compete with Joe's Widgets, they just provide a platform for them to sell. Another diverse angle to their business model that no other carrier has.

Oh yes they do, if they see a product that is successful, they will duplicate it sometimes from the same factories and sell it for less. Look at AmazonBasic products most are exact copies(or close enough to beat copyright rules)

 

[bbsam]

Two years ago, Fred S told stock analysts that concerns about Amazon shaking up the package shipping industry were "fueled by fantastical" reports. "In all likelihood, the primary deliverers of e-commerce shipments for the foreseeable future will be UPS, the U.S. Postal Service and FedEx," Smith said.
Amazon in 2017 splurged $13.2 billion on warehouses and other logistics buildup for its operations in North America, according to securities filings that combine Amazon's cash capital spending with its additions of physical real estate under leases and other financing arrangements. That was five times the comparable figure in 2015. For comparison, FedEx and United Parcel Service Inc. each had more than $5 billion in capital spending over the last year. This spending surge fits Amazon's pattern: When it sees potential in a new area of business, it puts its foot on the gas pedal.

This comes from Bloomberg article that was written almost a year ago. Again it's not about losing Amazon as a customer, they will be another carrier, or to put it short your competition.

Yes. And competition doesn’t get discounts.

The fact that a company puts a lot of money into the effort guarantees nothing. DHL found that out.