How about some rampant speculation?

[DOWNTRODDEN IN TEXAS]

I had a customer wrap Courier Pak's around solid silver bars. Yes, solid silver bars and they were freaking heavy. When I got there, I asked why this was done, and the guy looked at me like I was insane...it was cheaper. He even did it without the insurance!

I love geniuses.

 

[CJinx]

Crap like that belongs in a wooden crate. Large, heavy pieces of metal just tear right through cardboard and either get damaged on their own or end up destroying someone else's box. Then we (the qa clerks) have to spend 20 minutes constructing a 5 layer box out of cardboard and entire rolls of tape to contain a 100lb piece of garbage.

 

[Mr. 7]

I had a customer wrap Courier Pak's around solid silver bars. Yes, solid silver bars and they were freaking heavy. When I got there, I asked why this was done, and the guy looked at me like I was insane...it was cheaper. He even did it without the insurance!

I love geniuses.

I've seen that too.

 

[dvalleyjim]

Anyone hear that ground will be taking express's P2 business and using express for next day and international only? At ground(in CA) we will soon be able to scan express barcodes and we have same-day call ins until 4:00. This would fit with the manager who said that ground business is expected to increase 28% in July. Or is this just rampant speculation? We've been the test state before.

 

[dvalleyjim]

I can't see the economy producing 28% growth. It can only come from devouring another Fedex company, and if so what would be the reason?

 

[Ricochet1a]

Anyone hear that ground will be taking express's P2 business and using express for next day and international only? At ground(in CA) we will soon be able to scan express barcodes and we have same-day call ins until 4:00. This would fit with the manager who said that ground business is expected to increase 28% in July. Or is this just rampant speculation? We've been the test state before.

No we haven't.... please tell us all about it....

I'm assuming you are a Ground driver.

If so, look for caster decking to be installed, or for a dedicated semi trailer dock position to be set aside for Express bulk loaded trailers. A Ground terminal that would potentially handle Express volume would have to be set up to be able to scan individual packages as they are unloaded from a bulk trailer or aircraft cargo containers. There would also potentially need to be an area where bags of Express documents could be broken down, scanned and sorted out to the correct Ground routes for delivery.

There would need to be some new hires in the terminal (along with contractors expanding their capability), so there would have to be job postings come up fairly quickly if this is the case. If July is the target date, then job postings for the positions which would be necessary to handle this extra volume (particular the doc sort) would have to go up no later than the end of April - to get an applicant pool, have them screened and interviewed, then trained.

I haven't been able to get any independent confirmation on this expected 28% increase in Ground volume come date certain in July coming from Express - but there simply is no way to explain how Ground can be picking up volume of approximately 900,000 pieces a day to move any other way.

Again, I haven't heard any independent confirmation that this is beyond speculation (the July date, NOT the business plan). If Express has decided to pull the trigger, they've managed to keep it under wraps pretty damn good - I would've expected to hear something from my sources if July was a shiftover date.

 

[MrFedEx]

No we haven't.... please tell us all about it....

I'm assuming you are a Ground driver.

If so, look for caster decking to be installed, or for a dedicated semi trailer dock position to be set aside for Express bulk loaded trailers. A Ground terminal that would potentially handle Express volume would have to be set up to be able to scan individual packages as they are unloaded from a bulk trailer or aircraft cargo containers. There would also potentially need to be an area where bags of Express documents could be broken down, scanned and sorted out to the correct Ground routes for delivery.

There would need to be some new hires in the terminal (along with contractors expanding their capability), so there would have to be job postings come up fairly quickly if this is the case. If July is the target date, then job postings for the positions which would be necessary to handle this extra volume (particular the doc sort) would have to go up no later than the end of April - to get an applicant pool, have them screened and interviewed, then trained.

I haven't been able to get any independent confirmation on this expected 28% increase in Ground volume come date certain in July coming from Express - but there simply is no way to explain how Ground can be picking up volume of approximately 900,000 pieces a day to move any other way.

Again, I haven't heard any independent confirmation that this is beyond speculation (the July date, NOT the business plan). If Express has decided to pull the trigger, they've managed to keep it under wraps pretty damn good - I would've expected to hear something from my sources if July was a shiftover date.

They could have a scissor lift and ballmat/caster deck installed within a week, especially if it has been pre-arranged. Look for trailers with a rollerbed or a "Hydraroll" system that are air container capable.

I just thought of something that all of a sudden makes sense. Have any of you seen some of your largest delivery stops suddenly taper-off in volume over the last 2 months or so? Not just a little, but way-off.

 

[bbsam]

They could have a scissor lift and ballmat/caster deck installed within a week, especially if it has been pre-arranged. Look for trailers with a rollerbed or a "Hydraroll" system that are air container capable.

I just thought of something that all of a sudden makes sense. Have any of you seen some of your largest delivery stops suddenly taper-off in volume over the last 2 months or so? Not just a little, but way-off.

I still don't really understand the need for ballmats and caster decks. If what Ricochet said is correct, a bulk Express trailer with a sortation area for smalls sound like something we could run easily tomorrow. It's how we already process Ground.

 

[vantexan]

I still don't really understand the need for ballmats and caster decks. If what Ricochet said is correct, a bulk Express trailer with a sortation area for smalls sound like something we could run easily tomorrow. It's how we already process Ground.

If it's going to be flown on Express planes it'll be in containers. It's much more efficient to transfer containers from point to point, especially with time sensitive freight.

 

[newgirl]

Yea, more rampant speculation. Let's see, bbsam said 28% spike in volume July 1st. Right after the new fiscal year. When do we report our numbers (earnings)? With a number that distinct, (if bbsam isn't pulling our collective legs) then it has to be a segment of our deliveries, not one shipper. Could we have struck a deal with a big shipper that starts in the new fiscal year and promised them ground shipping with time-definite service at no extra cost? I would think that the UPS guys would have heard rumors that someone was leaving, that's a lot of freight.

From Sept earnings release ""The U.S. and global economy grew at a slower rate than we anticipated during the quarter," said Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer. "While FedEx Ground and FedEx Freight achieved improved operating results despite lower than expected growth, the more rapid decline in demand for FedEx Express services, particularly from Asia, outpaced our ability to reduce operating costs. We have slightly reduced our earnings forecast to reflect current business conditions and are aggressively working to adjust our cost structure to match demand levels."

Forewarned is forearmed I guess.

 

[vantexan]

Yea, more rampant speculation. Let's see, bbsam said 28% spike in volume July 1st. Right after the new fiscal year. When do we report our numbers (earnings)? With a number that distinct, (if bbsam isn't pulling our collective legs) then it has to be a segment of our deliveries, not one shipper. Could we have struck a deal with a big shipper that starts in the new fiscal year and promised them ground shipping with time-definite service at no extra cost? I would think that the UPS guys would have heard rumors that someone was leaving, that's a lot of freight. From Sept earnings release ""The U.S. and global economy grew at a slower rate than we anticipated during the quarter," said Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer. "While FedEx Ground and FedEx Freight achieved improved operating results despite lower than expected growth, the more rapid decline in demand for FedEx Express services, particularly from Asia, outpaced our ability to reduce operating costs. We have slightly reduced our earnings forecast to reflect current business conditions and are aggressively working to adjust our cost structure to match demand levels."
Forewarned is forearmed I guess.

Nothing speculative about that.

 

[Ricochet1a]

If it's going to be flown on Express planes it'll be in containers. It's much more efficient to transfer containers from point to point, especially with time sensitive freight.

It would be flown in containerized - but it isn't absolutely necessary for Ground terminals to be fitted out with decking and lifts to start the shiftover.

If Express wanted to, they could have the ramps unload the containers and have a "bucket brigade" of handlers loading bulk trailers. It is definately easier if there are "extendos" (powered, extendable conveyor belts that can reach inside trailers), but it can be done with more effort with "bucket brigades".

Labor inefficient? Yes, Buys FedEx some additional time to get the infrastructure setup within the Ground terminals - yes.

Transloading cargo from containerized to bulk trailers takes time. I know from my experience in AGFS that to transload containerized freight into trailers - getting it all scanned and stacked properly - requires 7-8 handlers (to do it efficiently using extendos) and they can work 6-8 aircraft positions an hour (filling a trailer in just under 1 hour). This equates to roughly one man-hour of labor to transload a single position (a cost to FedEx of about $15/hr in direct labor costs). With an average of 250 pcs per position, the cost to transload is 6 cents per piece.

That won't stop them if not having the infrastructure at Ground in place is an issue.

The PM sorts would change from sorting freight to transloading freight for Ground. Once all Ground terminals were fitted with the equipment to handle Express containers, then the PM sorts would more or less be put out of work (they couldn't "transfer" to the Ground terminals, separate opcos....). By the way, Ground handlers are also compensated less than Express handlers.

 

[bbsam]

We have "extendos". We are, however, an "Overnight Transfer Point". Not sure how relevant that is. Also, just as a side note, the ISP agreement cut times from the preload seemed pretty late. Maybe for processing a trailer brought across town from Express?

 

[Ricochet1a]

The non-overnight freight arrives at the destination ramps in the early evening the day BEFORE the delivery committment (volume to be delivered Friday arrives at the ramps Thursday evenings). This means that if the trigger is pulled, the Express non-overnight volume shifted over to Ground would arrive the early night before it was due for delivery - in most cases well before midnight at the Ground terminals. This means that the Express volume would be the first volume sorted at the Ground terminals in the AM (no potential delays).

The $64,000 question is how many ramps (within their current service areas) have more than 1 Ground terminal covering the same service area?

If a vast majority of ramps have only one Ground terminal covering the same service area, then it is all a no-brainer - truck the volume over to the Ground terminals and they sort it out without the ramps even opening the containers.

If as I believe, there is a situation of either more than one Ground terminal existing within the service area of each ramp - or overlapping service (one Ground terminal has an existing service area that overlaps two Express ramp service areas), then it gets a bit more complicated. The ramps would have to do a "terminal sort", to break out volume between the different terminals within the ramps existing coverage areas (perfectly "do-able").

However this would require changes to the ASTRA labeling, to enable the handlers to identify which terminal trailer/can was the correct location for the piece. Alternatively...

A possible work around to this would be the expansion of ROADS capability to the ramps. The ROADS systems can very easily be modified to enable each piece that is sorted at the ramps to be scanned, and a ROADS label to be placed on it identifying which Ground terminal trailer it is to be placed in. All that would need to be done is to slap in a network to work with the hand held labelers, then have engineering develop a system that would link package ZIP code to a particular terminal - then generate a label for handlers to visually determine which terminal to sort to. Then scan guns would be set up to give the familiar "beep" if the piece was being handled into the correct location or the triple beep if they grabbed the wrong piece.

Continuing on the speculation...

There is a possible explanation as to why I haven't heard of any decking or lifts being installed at Ground terminals - they won't receive Express air containers (I highly doubt this is the case, just a possible scenario)....

If there are overlapping service areas between Express ramps and Ground terminals (I just can't believe that FedEx had the foresight to make the service areas of Express ramps and Ground terminals correspond perfectly, FedEx isn't that good when it comes to advance planning) - then by necessity, the ramps will have to perform a sort. Instead of sorting out volume to destination Express station, they'd sort out volume to destination Ground terminal.

If this is the case, then all the infrastructure modifications would occur at Express ramps and not Ground terminals.

Back to what I've actually seen of business plans...

From the documents I've seen, the business plan is for Express to sort out the volume at the ramps (using existing infrastructure without significant modification), load the sorted volume into aircraft cargo containers, then truck the containers over to the Ground terminals where they'd unload the volume and run it through their sorts. This would virtually eliminate the need to modify Express facilities, and the only infrastructure changes would be the addition of decking and lifts at the Ground terminals.

Whether the semi drivers moving this volume around would be Express, Ground or contractors wasn't specified. Currently, contract drivers do move Express volume that doesn't go on aircraft (non-overnight volume between markets where the volume can be moved and committment made). Most ramps have contract routes (right now) that use contract carriers to move volume (including heavyweight) between adjoining service areas.

The only real changes to existing Express container movement would be the need to add truck routes to move the emptied air containers from the Ground terminals, to Express stations during the day, to enable the Express stations to load their outbound volume in the evening (they wouldn't be receiving the cans of non--overnight in the AM, just the overnight volume from the ramps as they currently do) - no big deal. So if this were to happen, the Express RTD's would actually benefit, since there would be more work for them in moving cargo containers around.

For the stations, since there wouldn't be any non-overnight volume to sort in the early AM, start times would be pushed back till when the overnight volume starts rolling in. With no non-overnight volume to deliver, routes (using existing structure, no changes envisioned there) would be done between 12 PM and 1 PM. "P1" would be gotten off as is done currently, then SO volume that didn't tagalong with P1 would be delivered. Most route would be back in the stations by 1 PM.

With a later start time in the morning and an earlier return to station time in the early afternoon, the overwhelming majority of Couriers would be on the clock less than 6 hours for a day. You know what that means...

 

[fedex_rtd]

"IF" this were to happen Express RTD's would NOT be part of the deal, in my opinion. Why add additional truck routes from the ramp to a Ground/Scab terminal when you could get one of the scab drivers to do it for pennies, plus the fools will pay for their own fuel. Yeh I could see the walmart drivers moving this freight and not a "real" FedEx employee.

 

[MrFedEx]

"IF" this were to happen Express RTD's would NOT be part of the deal, in my opinion. Why add additional truck routes from the ramp to a Ground/Scab terminal when you could get one of the scab drivers to do it for pennies, plus the fools will pay for their own fuel. Yeh I could see the walmart drivers moving this freight and not a "real" FedEx employee.

Your scenario sounds more plausible to me. If Fred can also screw the RTD's and save himself a penny, it would seem to me he'd do it in a heartbeat. It's kind of funny how the Ground scenario I've been talking about has all of a sudden become quite likely. Since we've stood idly by for years now and watched Fred have his way with us, I'm guessing the response to Ground will be mute acceptance as he pile-drives us again from behind. Or will there actually be real anger this time around? Unfortunately, passivity hasn't done Express employees any favors...now or ever.

I wonder if the Purple Suck-Ups will finally get the message when their 40-50 hours become about 30-35 hours per week?

 

[Ricochet1a]

"IF" this were to happen Express RTD's would NOT be part of the deal, in my opinion. Why add additional truck routes from the ramp to a Ground/Scab terminal when you could get one of the scab drivers to do it for pennies, plus the fools will pay for their own fuel. Yeh I could see the walmart drivers moving this freight and not a "real" FedEx employee.

While the title of this thread is "How about some rampant speculation", what I've posted is either directly taken from documents I've viewed (I clearly state this when I post), taken from conversations with people who have seen documents or been a party to a conversation which I have not personally or been consensus among the group I communicate with. I do my best to identify which category the information I post is derived from.

The consensus regarding RTDs is that Express wouldn't use Ground drivers to move Express air cargo containers. I know there have been posts regarding the existance of Ground trailers with roller beds.

The primary reason why it is believed that Express RTDs would do the movement has to do with airport security clearances. Express RTDs are already cleared for access to airport property. Ground drivers are not in most instances.

The movement of Express cans would require them to be tracked in Express' system, as to exact location and utilize Express RT routing numbers. Even the movement of empty cans requires can numbers be entered into the system which shows exact location or vehicle upon which they are loaded into at all time. Most RTDs are familiar with the system which allows history of ULD movement to be precisely tracked within the Express system, even down to the condition of the can and load when "built" (filled with packages/freight). When contract carriers are used for movement of Express containers, Express personnel perform all the necessary data entry as to which cans are on which route (VSL CONS, etc).

While it isn't beyond the capability to have Ground semi drivers move the cans from the airport to the Ground terminals, then move the emptied cans to Express stations for reload, it is believed that FedEx will avoid doing this, just to avoid any issues with SIDA/FAA regulations or even RLA status for Express. If Ground semi drivers start moving around Express volume before it arrives at Ground terminals (constructive cartage agent), there is an opening for Express to lose the RLA argument for the movement of ULDs - and thus the RTDs. Express wants to ensure that no existing employee can possibly be moved out from under RLA classification for any reason whatsoever. RTDs are one of the PRIMARY groups which Express wants to ensure stay under the RLA - they have the ability to cripple the Express operation should they gain the ability to organize on a local level.

To be clear, the exact process/method of moving volume from ramps to Ground terminals wasn't a topic in the documents I have seen or others have reported to me. This would be worked out in implementation of plan, not within the scope of business planning documents. I'm sure that if a decision has been made to shift the delivery of non-overnight over to Ground, that detailed operational planning has been performed, but I haven't been presented any documents which illustrate this, nor have those I communicate with stated that they've seen such operational plans. In order for a business plan to be put into effect, operational planning MUST be performed, and these are the documents which are currently being sought by those I communciate with - to date, none transmitted to me or even stated to exist by my sources.

This is why this supposed significant increase in volume in Ground come date certain in July is puzzling. There is no word of UPS losing any major customers. There is no word of Ground picking up volume from USPS (to the tune of 900,000 pieces a day). We are looking into whether or not SmartPost is going to be expanded somehow, to generate an additional 900,000 pieces a day (anticipated). If this bit of information regarding the significant anticipated increase in volume moved by Ground is accurate, there is no confirming information from other sources which would make sense of it. So far, the only rational explanation is that FedEx has indeed pulled the trigger on shifing volume over to Ground for delivery. However, absent ANY other confirming data - this supposed increase of volume for Ground is puzzling - if not outright suspicious in its origins.

 

[bbsam]

I vote for "suspicious in it's origin". No more info around here, not even reiterations of the same. I'm not much of a numbers guy though, so the 28% number still has me wondering. Seems to line up too perfectly with everything else.

 

[vantexan]

If this does happen it would seem likely that in many stations 4X10 rts would be converted to 5X8's with the 4X10 covers given their own rts, further insuring the near impossibility of getting overtime. The farthest outlying rts in PM areas could start later, which would allow them to cover pups and dropboxes in their area while preventing milking the clock. And ROADS will probably be implemented as just about everyone would see rt boundaries change so why not give us something to follow to help understand what goes where. This is change on a monumental scale if it happens.

 

[bbsam]

Wouldn't it be weird if some Memphis pencil pusher picked up this idea in "rampant speculation", presented the possibilities, and became a billionaire future CEO of the company? Ironic.