Wouldn't it be ironic if the pencil pusher was Ricochet and he was priming is for info all along?
I'm moving all my retirement into Fedex stock ASAP--until fuel prices rise. Then it's back into Walmart, McDonalds and Apple.
How about some rampant speculation?
- Thread starter bbsam
- Start date
Wouldn't it be ironic if the pencil pusher was Ricochet and he was priming is for info all along?
I'm moving all my retirement into Fedex stock ASAP--until fuel prices rise. Then it's back into Walmart, McDonalds and Apple.
More like we're hack chess players trying to keep up with grandmasters who are 30 moves ahead.
Ricochet1a
Well-Known Member
Something this big, has got to have operational planning take place. Once that occurs, the grapevine will be buzzing with what is about to happen. Senior managers will know that their operation will change, so they will need to make preparations to begin to adapt routes to the decrease in volume and change AM sort times. There will be hiring freezes for full-time Couriers, there will be construction going on within Ground terminals, job postings by Ground for additional positions, changes in software to accomodate scanning Express ASTRA and enable them to be sorted into the correct Ground delivery routing system. All of these necessary changes would by necessity take place in advance of actual implemention of a shift in business model.
To date, NONE OF THIS has occurred. There is no evidence of ANY operational level implementation going on. No construction at Ground terminals reported, no reports of contracts being signed with construction firms to do construction in the near (or even short) term. No reports from people working at Ground terminals using Express bar codes in a "trial" application for their computer equipment (running trial Express ASTRA through their scanners and making sure the correct results occur, etc).
For those who get their information from this forum, the dots may seem to be connecting, but from my sources of information, NOTHING has been implemented as of yet. From my perspective, the only thing that is happening is one bit of information has come out - the 28% increase bit. From that, inductive reasoning has been used by the readers to derive the conclusion that change is imminent. It may be - but again, from my sources, nothing is imminent. I would expect to get some form of confirming document or source that the trigger has been pulled - so far nothing.
So this leaves the question as to how this bit of information regarding the 28% business is being interpreted. This is what is so suspicious. No FedEx public announcement regarding expansion in Ground (they don't need to say where the volume is coming from, just that there is an anticipated increase in volume). Something like this would have some version of confirmation from FedEx in some form that would be available to shareholders. So far, NOTHING.
When all the bits of information lead to a conclusion that something is going to happen "in the future", then another bit of information arrives that leads people to believe that "the future is now". Something is missing. For the readers of this forum, thinking "the future is now", is logical inductive reasoning from everything that has been posted over the last couple of years - but I've received no outside confirming information that indeed "the future is now" - only "sometime in the future" (without a date specific given).
There needs to be other confirming data before it would be wise to assume the conversion will occur this July. If indeed it will happen, there will be a slow trickle of other information come out in the coming weeks, then a torrent of information - then finally sometime after Memorial Day an announcement from Express. I haven't received any "trickle" of information in the past few months regarding a date certain. If indeed FedEx has made up their mind about conversion, they've kept it so quiet, that it would rival national security in terms of not getting out and remaining a secret.
I had a heads up on the pay issue for 2012 and received internal memos, I had a heads up on the trial of Cheetah within Office (out of the blue). Nothing regarding actual implementaion of the business plan to actually begin the shiftover delivery of non-overnight over to Ground. However, given the "out of the blue" nature of being informed about Cheetah, it is a possibility that FedEx has made a decision to convert and is keeping it under tight control till they are ready to make a public announcement. Everyone knows that doing this will create a lot of problems within Express (both within AGFS implementing the plan and with employees in DGO), they've got to be in a position to handle those problems without having service disruptions.
So right now, don't look at a conversion as being a done deal - look into where that information regarding the 28% increase in volume for Ground is coming from and where this mystery volume is originating from. If this is an accurate bit of information, there has to be a way to get independent confirmation as to what source this volume is coming from. The movement of 900,000 packages of day isn't something that can be kept secret as to source or method. Either the bit of information is incorrect (or it is being incorrectly applied to a national level when the information was intended for a local bump in volume), or there is other information out there that can confirm the bit of info and give more info which would allow a high confidence conclusion to be reached BEFORE FedEx makes a public announcement.
To date, NONE OF THIS has occurred. There is no evidence of ANY operational level implementation going on. No construction at Ground terminals reported, no reports of contracts being signed with construction firms to do construction in the near (or even short) term. No reports from people working at Ground terminals using Express bar codes in a "trial" application for their computer equipment (running trial Express ASTRA through their scanners and making sure the correct results occur, etc).
For those who get their information from this forum, the dots may seem to be connecting, but from my sources of information, NOTHING has been implemented as of yet. From my perspective, the only thing that is happening is one bit of information has come out - the 28% increase bit. From that, inductive reasoning has been used by the readers to derive the conclusion that change is imminent. It may be - but again, from my sources, nothing is imminent. I would expect to get some form of confirming document or source that the trigger has been pulled - so far nothing.
So this leaves the question as to how this bit of information regarding the 28% business is being interpreted. This is what is so suspicious. No FedEx public announcement regarding expansion in Ground (they don't need to say where the volume is coming from, just that there is an anticipated increase in volume). Something like this would have some version of confirmation from FedEx in some form that would be available to shareholders. So far, NOTHING.
When all the bits of information lead to a conclusion that something is going to happen "in the future", then another bit of information arrives that leads people to believe that "the future is now". Something is missing. For the readers of this forum, thinking "the future is now", is logical inductive reasoning from everything that has been posted over the last couple of years - but I've received no outside confirming information that indeed "the future is now" - only "sometime in the future" (without a date specific given).
There needs to be other confirming data before it would be wise to assume the conversion will occur this July. If indeed it will happen, there will be a slow trickle of other information come out in the coming weeks, then a torrent of information - then finally sometime after Memorial Day an announcement from Express. I haven't received any "trickle" of information in the past few months regarding a date certain. If indeed FedEx has made up their mind about conversion, they've kept it so quiet, that it would rival national security in terms of not getting out and remaining a secret.
I had a heads up on the pay issue for 2012 and received internal memos, I had a heads up on the trial of Cheetah within Office (out of the blue). Nothing regarding actual implementaion of the business plan to actually begin the shiftover delivery of non-overnight over to Ground. However, given the "out of the blue" nature of being informed about Cheetah, it is a possibility that FedEx has made a decision to convert and is keeping it under tight control till they are ready to make a public announcement. Everyone knows that doing this will create a lot of problems within Express (both within AGFS implementing the plan and with employees in DGO), they've got to be in a position to handle those problems without having service disruptions.
So right now, don't look at a conversion as being a done deal - look into where that information regarding the 28% increase in volume for Ground is coming from and where this mystery volume is originating from. If this is an accurate bit of information, there has to be a way to get independent confirmation as to what source this volume is coming from. The movement of 900,000 packages of day isn't something that can be kept secret as to source or method. Either the bit of information is incorrect (or it is being incorrectly applied to a national level when the information was intended for a local bump in volume), or there is other information out there that can confirm the bit of info and give more info which would allow a high confidence conclusion to be reached BEFORE FedEx makes a public announcement.
Ricochet1a
Well-Known Member
Good analogy...
MrFedEx
Engorged Member
This has been the plan for a long time. I think most of us realize that.
GroundSwitcher
New Member
Hi all,
I have been following along on the forum for a while now and figured I'd add what I've heard about this whole express/ground deal.. I'm a switcher-yard driver-shifter whatever you want to call it at a fairly large ground terminal (60-70 delivery trucks) that is also the reginal OTP, and all the contractors here were notified about the impending spike in volume about 6 months ago (I caught a glimpse of the meeting powerpoint).. The linehaul contractor, who I speak to frequently, told me he was also told to prepare for additional volume, and just bought 3 new (used, of course) tractors.. and I have seen a few new vans parked on the lines inside. However, so far volume has stayed VERY steady since it recovered after peak.
The funny thing is, within a year or two (being vague here) we will be moving to a brand new facility roughly 5-6 times the size of our current building (stuff here still says RPS on it). There aren't any other terminals nearby that could be consolidated with ours, so I don't think that is the cause of the volume increase they are talking about. I have toured the new place and there weren't any roller decks, but a LOT more open dock doors (no extendo belts set up on the door), don't know if that means anything or not. Office folks don't seem to know a lot about the volume increase (I know some of them well, pretty sure they'd tell me if they knew). A lot of new positions are going up on the intranet and recently announced full-time package handler positions. Also rumors of a fourth sort, but so far no details about that.
Hope this info helps..might just be adding to the fire
I have been following along on the forum for a while now and figured I'd add what I've heard about this whole express/ground deal.. I'm a switcher-yard driver-shifter whatever you want to call it at a fairly large ground terminal (60-70 delivery trucks) that is also the reginal OTP, and all the contractors here were notified about the impending spike in volume about 6 months ago (I caught a glimpse of the meeting powerpoint).. The linehaul contractor, who I speak to frequently, told me he was also told to prepare for additional volume, and just bought 3 new (used, of course) tractors.. and I have seen a few new vans parked on the lines inside. However, so far volume has stayed VERY steady since it recovered after peak.
The funny thing is, within a year or two (being vague here) we will be moving to a brand new facility roughly 5-6 times the size of our current building (stuff here still says RPS on it). There aren't any other terminals nearby that could be consolidated with ours, so I don't think that is the cause of the volume increase they are talking about. I have toured the new place and there weren't any roller decks, but a LOT more open dock doors (no extendo belts set up on the door), don't know if that means anything or not. Office folks don't seem to know a lot about the volume increase (I know some of them well, pretty sure they'd tell me if they knew). A lot of new positions are going up on the intranet and recently announced full-time package handler positions. Also rumors of a fourth sort, but so far no details about that.
Hope this info helps..might just be adding to the fire
Ricochet1a
Well-Known Member
This information actually points to the expected increase in volume for Ground AWAY from getting anything from Express. This actually confirms (marginally) my NOT hearing anything coming out of Express/FedEx Corp sources regarding an impending Express conversion.
Here's why.
Ground linehaul wouldn't see ANY increase in volume when Express shifts volume, Express AGFS would do all the linehaul and then it would be trucked from Express ramps to Ground terminals.
Now if this linehaul contractor does "short" movements of volume too... another story.
What I'm seeing - from what you are describing - is FedEx Ground constructing what I'd describe as a regional level "hub" for the movement of Ground volume. A VERY large building (larger than anything you've seen to date), to accomodate receiving volume off of the Ground regional/national linehaul network, to be unloaded, resorted and reloaded onto trucks either going to local area Ground terminals or continuing along the Ground linehaul network.
This would require an additional sort to handle the trucks coming in at "odd hours" and there would indeed be enough work to have full time handlers (that would be a miserable job). There would be almost a "continuous sort" going on within a facility such as this.
So now at least there is news of construction going on at one Ground "terminal" - so nix the "no construction going on at Ground terminals" part.
Any volume coming from Express would quite easily be absorbed within the current Ground terminals (with minor modifications). There simply isn't enough Express volume that would require Ground to massively expand their terminal footprints - it just isn't there.
The other thing that points away from this being an Express shiftover, is the completion timeline of the building (year or two in the future). If a conversion was imminent (this July), any new building that was intended to handle the additional Express volume would need to be ready to go by late May (test out all the computer systems, the conveyors, have the decking installed, the lifts installed and tested, etc.)
What I'm seeing is some form of spike in either Smartpost (or expansion of what it does) - or FedEx Corp setting up business customers that currently (or in the very recent past) use pre-printed Express shipping labels for returns of products - to use Ground instead. I know that Verison recently shifted over the return of broken products from using Express shipping labels to having them go through Smartpost. I think this is where the trail leads.
Product returns AREN'T time sensitive. Gettting replacement items out to the customer is time sensitive, but the return of the "broken" item simply isn't time sensitive. If FedEx Corp realizes that these businesses are getting ready to bolt from using "FedEx", because of the high cost of product returns, FedEx may just be possibly taking proactive steps to reduce the costs of product returns for these companies by deliberately setting up a system where the replacement items go out Express, the returned items go back via Ground.
In a roundabout way though, if this is the case, then Express return volume (vast majority is 2nd day) would take a necessary hit. This wouldn't impact local level Express stations though (only the stations which receive this volume).
The return of items is a small part of each station's outgoing volume - all done via pickup routes. If this return volume were to go by Ground instead, then there would hardly be any noticible impact on a particular station - EXCEPTING those stations which have all these returns as inbound freight. Their bulk delivery routes to the businesses which are receiving this volume would no longer be needed. A loss of revenue for the Express side of FedEx (but FedEx Corp would be retaining the "volume" start to finish).
One has to remember, margins on Ground and Express are quite close (in many cases the movement of a particular piece through Ground creates a GREATER margin for FedEx Corp). If by saving the customer some money by offering Ground returns for items shipped out via Express - AND gaining a slight increase in absolute margin in the return movement of a piece - it would be a win for FedEx Corp and its customers.
The thing that still gets me, is the exact nature of the anticipated gain in volume - the ""28% increase". Sounds just too damn exact (or it is the "goal" of someone within FedEx Corp and that figure has made its way down to a local level).
I think the answer is somewhere in either Smartpost, or in FedEx shifting the movement of product returns from Express to Ground.
Either way, with the growth going on within Ground, it would by necessity be prudent to have construction going on to improve the Ground network carrying capacity - these things have to be done in advance of volume spikes, not after the fact (or bad things happen).
Here's why.
Ground linehaul wouldn't see ANY increase in volume when Express shifts volume, Express AGFS would do all the linehaul and then it would be trucked from Express ramps to Ground terminals.
Now if this linehaul contractor does "short" movements of volume too... another story.
What I'm seeing - from what you are describing - is FedEx Ground constructing what I'd describe as a regional level "hub" for the movement of Ground volume. A VERY large building (larger than anything you've seen to date), to accomodate receiving volume off of the Ground regional/national linehaul network, to be unloaded, resorted and reloaded onto trucks either going to local area Ground terminals or continuing along the Ground linehaul network.
This would require an additional sort to handle the trucks coming in at "odd hours" and there would indeed be enough work to have full time handlers (that would be a miserable job). There would be almost a "continuous sort" going on within a facility such as this.
So now at least there is news of construction going on at one Ground "terminal" - so nix the "no construction going on at Ground terminals" part.
Any volume coming from Express would quite easily be absorbed within the current Ground terminals (with minor modifications). There simply isn't enough Express volume that would require Ground to massively expand their terminal footprints - it just isn't there.
The other thing that points away from this being an Express shiftover, is the completion timeline of the building (year or two in the future). If a conversion was imminent (this July), any new building that was intended to handle the additional Express volume would need to be ready to go by late May (test out all the computer systems, the conveyors, have the decking installed, the lifts installed and tested, etc.)
What I'm seeing is some form of spike in either Smartpost (or expansion of what it does) - or FedEx Corp setting up business customers that currently (or in the very recent past) use pre-printed Express shipping labels for returns of products - to use Ground instead. I know that Verison recently shifted over the return of broken products from using Express shipping labels to having them go through Smartpost. I think this is where the trail leads.
Product returns AREN'T time sensitive. Gettting replacement items out to the customer is time sensitive, but the return of the "broken" item simply isn't time sensitive. If FedEx Corp realizes that these businesses are getting ready to bolt from using "FedEx", because of the high cost of product returns, FedEx may just be possibly taking proactive steps to reduce the costs of product returns for these companies by deliberately setting up a system where the replacement items go out Express, the returned items go back via Ground.
In a roundabout way though, if this is the case, then Express return volume (vast majority is 2nd day) would take a necessary hit. This wouldn't impact local level Express stations though (only the stations which receive this volume).
The return of items is a small part of each station's outgoing volume - all done via pickup routes. If this return volume were to go by Ground instead, then there would hardly be any noticible impact on a particular station - EXCEPTING those stations which have all these returns as inbound freight. Their bulk delivery routes to the businesses which are receiving this volume would no longer be needed. A loss of revenue for the Express side of FedEx (but FedEx Corp would be retaining the "volume" start to finish).
One has to remember, margins on Ground and Express are quite close (in many cases the movement of a particular piece through Ground creates a GREATER margin for FedEx Corp). If by saving the customer some money by offering Ground returns for items shipped out via Express - AND gaining a slight increase in absolute margin in the return movement of a piece - it would be a win for FedEx Corp and its customers.
The thing that still gets me, is the exact nature of the anticipated gain in volume - the ""28% increase". Sounds just too damn exact (or it is the "goal" of someone within FedEx Corp and that figure has made its way down to a local level).
I think the answer is somewhere in either Smartpost, or in FedEx shifting the movement of product returns from Express to Ground.
Either way, with the growth going on within Ground, it would by necessity be prudent to have construction going on to improve the Ground network carrying capacity - these things have to be done in advance of volume spikes, not after the fact (or bad things happen).
MrFedEx
Engorged Member
It almost sounds as if FedEx has intentionally been underselling Express in an attempt to shift customers over to Ground. Or, put differently, sacrificing one opco to promote another opco. If FedEx Sales Reps aren't selling the Express product, the big volume drop-offs make perfect sense. This would also be perfect "justification" when Fred and MT3 come on Frontline in a couple months telling us how "sorry" they are that we've all been made part-timers, or almost as bad, split-shifters with a huge gap in the middle of the day...every day.
This is one way they could still have full-timers, but screw us on hours, and I'm sure it would be presented in classic FedEx fashion as an "opportunity". Can you imagine a 3 hour split every day? You do your P1/SO cycle, take a huge split, and then you do pickups. This is increasingly sounding like a likely scenario, at least to me, and the intentional undercutting of Express also sounds logical given Fred's RLA protection and chance to cut his labor costs with the Ground wage slaves.
This is one way they could still have full-timers, but screw us on hours, and I'm sure it would be presented in classic FedEx fashion as an "opportunity". Can you imagine a 3 hour split every day? You do your P1/SO cycle, take a huge split, and then you do pickups. This is increasingly sounding like a likely scenario, at least to me, and the intentional undercutting of Express also sounds logical given Fred's RLA protection and chance to cut his labor costs with the Ground wage slaves.
dvalleyjim
Well-Known Member
yeah, I can't believe that there is going to be a 28% increase in 4 months. I say the July 28% thing has been declared bogus.
dvalleyjim
Well-Known Member
I only see 2 reason's they would move more express to ground (well 2 main reasons). It would have to save the company money or it would have to offer them some kind of union protection.
Kevinmevin
Active Member
Well not sure if this has anything to do with the 28% thing but there is definitely something coming I'm at one of the massive regional hubs and we are heavily expanding our already big footprint. I did just hear that our new unload wing will be operational beginning of August. Meanwhile we've got a new load wing being built (https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-...baFbm1Msp5g/s1158/2012-01-06_07-41-24_904.jpg) and another one on the way after that. Have not seen any express like equipment anywhere yet. Will keep and eye out though.
oldrps
Well-Known Member
One of two things may be happening, consolidating SmartPost into Ground or Express 2-Day and Express Saver to Ground.
To consolidate SmartPost would require a massive smalls sort at the Hubs/OTP's and bigger local facilities. There is a good chance this may be what they are looking to do to speed up SmartPost to compete with UPS Surepost. This would allow them to shut down the SmartPost hubs and save money by eliminating another network.
If the Express 2 and 3 day volume is moved to Ground, the Express packages will go to the Ground Hubs and OTPS's to be inducted in the Ground system after they have been sorted at Express by Ground Hub/OTP. It will then be loaded to the satellites on their inbound trailers from the Hubs/OTP's. There will not be any Express trailers going to the Ground terminals, only to the hubs and OTP's. The 2-Day and Express Savers will be mixed in with the Ground packages for the Ground preloads. Look to the past when RPS did 2 and 3 day air, this is how it was done before. One problem I see with this model is how will Ground deliver 2-Day AM.
To consolidate SmartPost would require a massive smalls sort at the Hubs/OTP's and bigger local facilities. There is a good chance this may be what they are looking to do to speed up SmartPost to compete with UPS Surepost. This would allow them to shut down the SmartPost hubs and save money by eliminating another network.
If the Express 2 and 3 day volume is moved to Ground, the Express packages will go to the Ground Hubs and OTPS's to be inducted in the Ground system after they have been sorted at Express by Ground Hub/OTP. It will then be loaded to the satellites on their inbound trailers from the Hubs/OTP's. There will not be any Express trailers going to the Ground terminals, only to the hubs and OTP's. The 2-Day and Express Savers will be mixed in with the Ground packages for the Ground preloads. Look to the past when RPS did 2 and 3 day air, this is how it was done before. One problem I see with this model is how will Ground deliver 2-Day AM.
My first courier job transferring from the Memphis Hub was a 3hr split in the Northeast. You'd have to be in an area with a big enough window for that to happen. Out west many stations close fairly early to get freight to ramp and make up time flying to Memphis. For stations like that you'd have in-town rts doing the sort and extended FTers starting later most likely. Logistics are local.
MrFedEx
Engorged Member
Fred already has incredible anti-union protection with his RLA Energy Dome. This was provided to him by the US Congress at tremendous expense to Smith, but he's impervious to the incredible evil of unions. His arch-enemy, "Do-Nothing Man", has been sitting on his ass living-up to his name at Teamster HQ.
Kevinmevin
Active Member
What exactly is the difference between an OTP an a hub?? I've heard OTP float around many times but have no idea what it is. Are they different then terminals??
That is a great question. OTP = overnight transfer point. Will find out more tomorrow.
Bump up to see if there has been any more information about this 28% increase for Ground and where is it coming from? The Ground O/O in my area is hiring. In addition, he is switching his drivers around. I know the Ops managers know something, I just wonder what it is. We have quite a lot of movement in our station, like rats fleeing the sinking ship LOL.
Using Express means overtime. Which FedEx is legally required to pay. Using Ground and Home means more work for the drivers with no more money. But the contractor/employers are still legally required to pay? hmmmmm.......Who in the hell is asked to do more work but is not paid for their additional time? That's insane! That literally means the longer these guys work, the less they are making per hour! Time for G/H drivers to demand changes!
HomeDelivery
Well-Known Member
well, that's for the drivers who are paid a flat rate by the day. If they're going to get more work, they should demand from their boss for an additional rate after a set number of stops...
the one terminal that i recently worked from this Saturday had a bunch of hourly TEMP drivers from the past peak season to help deliver those perishable packages (flowers and chocolates/ fruit baskets).
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I was dumb enough to sign up with a former contractor, but he paid me by the stop; however, i was kinda overloaded when compared to the temp drivers' loads (they only had 60 stops or so while i had close to 140).
I came in early at 0630, the truck wasn't ready for me, so i had to get a rental & set it up & fuel it.
Then as you know we don't get paid to load/sort our own vehicles. I wasn't out of the terminal until 0900 due to heavy volume and late arrivals for the presort.
~40% of my load was for flowers & perishables. I was lucky none of them was for a business address closed on a Saturday. Some houses i had to run it to the backdoor / side door or a passer-by may steal the package for themselves...
driving blind & having a poor turn-by-turn sequencing pushed my stops per road hour down to 11 & some misplots push my end time to 2100. I couldn't skip trace because I had a box truck instead of a stepvan with a pass through to the cargo area (that was covered in my older thread about driving a rental).
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so a 14 hour day would get a ups driver how much when compared to a 6-year Home Delivery driver?
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