So once the Senate passes the House version and Obama signs it do you think we might then see the gears turning to make Express strictly overnight? Seems it might be risky to start a major overhaul until the FAA bill is out of the way.
As I pointed out before, there were two separate but related issues driving Express reorganization: desire to keep out a union and a desire to restore corporate profitability in the current (and believed new normal) economic climate.
With the House version of the Reauthorization, Express is moved back to its previous status quo that existed before this latest go around started in 2009 - RLA status firmly in place with a union certification vote requiring BOTH a national level majority as determined by a majority of all ELIGIBLE to vote, not just a majority of those actually choosing to vote. Given the dispersed nature of DGO, this makes it an impossible task to succesfully organize a unionization effort, thus the reason why the Teamsters walked away this past January even with the change in definition of a majority. With the Republicans taking the House in the 2010 election, it was an uphill battle. The NLB's administrative ruling regarding definition of a majority vote was just a small crack in the armor of Express. That crack is going to be mended in a few days it seems.
The issue of the FAA bill will be decided most likely by the end of the week, at the latest by mid-August.
Once the bill is signed, it will actually slow down the impetus for a rapid change in Express structure. Remember, I stated that if, IF, the reauthorization went through and FedEx somehow lost its RLA status, then Express would move rapidly to alter its business structure. Since the House version looks to be the version that will be passed, Express won't feel itself pressured to move nearly as rapidly to reorganize. Reorganization will be driven purely by financial concerns and not any concern to prevent unionization (in the short term anyway).
The "major overhaul" is already been in the planning stages for over two years, so it isn't something hastily cooked up.
http://ir.fedex.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=388559
This is from a web page done by FedEx itself when this whole issue first started. Here's the last paragraph from the linked page (referenced the purchase of B777 cargo aircraft). Italics and underlining my emphasis:
Impact of RLA status on B-777 purchases at FedEx Express
In our latest B-777 contract with Boeing, a provision was included that cancels 15 orders if FedEx Express or any of its employees is removed from the jurisdiction of the RLA. This clause does not affect the first 15 B-777s we have on order, only the last 15 aircraft currently on order.
This provision was included in the contract as a prudent precaution against a possible major change in the circumstances of our business. It is a reasonable contingency to put in place because a change of that magnitude could affect the structure of our network or the fundamentals of our business model. At this time, we still plan to complete the purchases of all 30 B-777s.
Anyone reading the above paragraph with a bit of inductive reasoning can see that Express was making plans to alter its business model with the threat of unionization. It is also easy to see that Express saw the threat of unionization as REAL if it lost its RLA status - why else would Fred S engage in this sort of political extortion? Express KNEW that if it lost its RLA status, that unionization of a significant number of DGO locations would occur almost immediately. This is the company which you seem to think "cares" about you as an individual. Express was and is willing to engage in political extortion to protect its business classification (RLA) and will sell each and every wage (along with a few salaried employees) down the river if that is needed to protect itself.
Express has been moving to secure its status for sometime now. The reason why you haven't heard any monthly status reports in your station meeting (concerning the restructuring of Express) is because Express knows that if they start announcing obvious indications that changes are coming, that the rank and file may just decide to sign union cards in anticipation. Express lets you know what it wants you to know, when express wants you to know it. Right now, they don't want the rank and file to know anything.
Before I got out, most of the opposition to signing union cards from the Couriers was the fact that they were being asked to sign a Teamsters union card. The Teamsters don't have a sterling reputation out there. Many, MANY stated that if there was another union that could represent them they'd sign a union card for that union. It was a choice between Fred S and James Hoffa, most wanted "Choice C" in order to sign a union card and say no to what Fred was offering. The problem is that there isn't really another union out there that organizes on a national level (and with the resources to fight Express) which could pull off a union drive. Remember, the IBT is not affiliated with the AFL-CIO right now, they are affiliated with the CTW organization - which has a very leftist political orientation.
By comparison the AFL-CIO is considered more centrist or left of center politically.
But this points to the root of the issue. There are approximately 1.5 million members of the IBT at this time. One must assume at least half are satisified with the orientation of the IBT. Is the IBT going to change its political alliances - thus potentially pissing off 750,000 of its members - in order to secure an additional 30 to 50 thousand Express employees? Don't think so. Bird in hand.... "Mr FedEx" stated in another string that the teamsters essentially need to step up to the plate to organize Expresss - it is the other way around, Express employees need to "come to the Teamsters" in order to get them to expend any effort on behalf of the Express employees. A Mexican standoff defined...
Change is coming. Exactly what that change will be for those left at Express is difficult to precisely tell. You may just be able to hold out for a couple more years and leave as the brunt of the changes are being implemented, you may end up waiting too long and being turned into roadkill by Fred S.
When Express pulls the trigger, it will unfold over the course of a few months and not years. There haven't been reports of Ground terminals being installed with caster decking coming in, but there have been indications that FedEx engineering have already drawn up proposals based on existing floor plans to rapidly put out contracts for installation. This would take a couple of months at most once the decision is made. The rerouting of non-overnight freight would merely require Express to take the volume off the afternoon flights once they arrived at the ramps, immediately load it onto CTV's, then move the containers to the Ground terminals which would have caster decking installed in a small - yet large enough area - to permit unloading of the contents and staging of empty cans. The next day/afternoon, RTD's would go to the Ground terminals and load empty cans into their trailers in accordance with the loadplan of the station they were hauling to. They'd drive to the stations with enough empty cans to enable stations to perform their reload operation with cans meeting their load plan for their respective ramp. A simple exercise in logistic planning.
The issue is whether Ground is ready to accept the Express volume. Two years ago, Express was in a bind, Ground wasn't ready, was facing mounting litigation concerning its IC model and fears were that Ground could've been shut down in litigation. If Express pulled the trigger back then, it would've been (potentially) left in a position with a shut down Ground operation, and Express with DGO employees HIGHLY pissed off that they had been sold down the river. Imagine Fred trying to make a plea to Express employees to "trust" him and deliver non-overnight volume (after having kick them in the groin and pulling delivery of non-overnight volume). Even Express saw danger there.
Fast forward to 2011. Ground is making the transition to an ISP model (which should place it just on the otherside of the legality line), Ground has improved its service - ironically due to the poor economy, turnover at Ground has slowed considerably in the past 18 months and FedEx has confidence that Ground can meet the minimum service level needed to keep customers.
Is is just coincidence that the ISP model will be implemented in most terminals by the end of this year? Is is just coincidence that Ground is getting new hardware (and will be getting new software) for their drivers which will assuredly recognize Express ASTRA codes? Is it just coincidence that Express has been pushing hard not only for productivity improvements, but also tinkering with route structures on a national level?
What's that early 1970's song? Sign, sign, everywhere a sign...