UPS 20 yrs from now!

The only way you will have a pension check is if we stay union. It's a pyramid scheme and if we lose the base, the money won't last long.

Or is it a PONZIE scheme just like Social Security. The "boomers" are probably the last generation to collect on it. After all, how long can you live off of IOU slips!
 

klein

Für Meno :)
Yup, pension reductions will accur... already been notified from my last Teamster job.. :(
SS will no longer be what it was, and probably not available for anyone collecting a company pension or even 401K's.
Plus, higher taxes and a Vat tax.

Definilty won't be the same as pensioners enjoy today.

I also see home delivery will only occur upon request and with extra charges.
It will cut UPS driver jobs.
Basic delivery will only go to UPS Stores, for customer pick-up, (unless they want the "home delivery service" and pay extra ).
Businesses will still get delivery.

And ofcourse, less UPS drivers and employment, means less to the pension funds....
 

rod

Retired 22 years
Or is it a PONZIE scheme just like Social Security. The "boomers" are probably the last generation to collect on it. After all, how long can you live off of IOU slips!

For the last 25 years I have believed SS would never be there for me either. Now the time has come and they are suppose to cut me my first check on May 26th. Please let me get at least ONE check.:happy2:
 

SWORDFISH

Well-Known Member
ups will reap the harvest from the seeds they sew. ups is not sewing any seeds now. so they will not be harvesting. drivers are only being dispatched to cover current deliveries with just enough time to do deliveries. we are not allowed to sew any seeds. so i predict if this current trend continues and we are continually harvesting and not sewing, we will not have any thing to harvest in the future.


+1 UPS will crash if they dont change their unethical ways. People that study big business atest to this.
 
Less US drivers but larger workforce Internationally.
Logistics will be a larger revenue generator than US Ground Small Package.
UPS will have a different makeup in regards to which units generate revenue and profit.
UPS will have many business units providing goods and services that don't even exist today.

Hoax, I think you may be correct but, one thing you may have left out is that the company may become non-union or , the union may become very deminished in the future of UPS. Afterall, look at the problem with state budgets and the portion of there legacy costs in pensions and benefits to union members. Hey, I'm a teamster but unfortunately I believe the writing is on the wall. Maybe future concessions in these areas may be the only thing that keeps us going. I really hate to say that but it might happen. Many of my brothers live in between the pages of the contract book in instead of the real world. I know, I was part of that group, everything revolved around the teamsters until one day I just pulled the blinders off. It's already happening in the private sector and I'm not just talking about the auto industry.
 

RogerThat

Operations Supervisor
From a hub operational stand point, I see two major changes in the coming years. I will list each change in chronological order, with the succeeding change being a direct result of it's predecessor.

Firstly, we will see more facilities step into the current times as corporate transportation vists our US hubs, and installs automation systems. These automation systems include NGSS (Next Generation Smalls Sort), Bullfrog (Fully automated smalls sort), MDS (Misload Detection System.. no visit from corporate required for installation), and more. Each automation system feeds the fire in transforming the hub operations. When I say that each automation system fuels the fire, I am saying that NGSS will cut building staffing needs and increase production in smalls sort, while MDS will raise the MAR to about 1/5000. The bullfrog will eliminate the need for any smalls sort staffing as it is fully automated. Therefore, I see a great reduction in the amount of employed part-time employees. I do not forsee any layoffs or such, but I do forsee part-time employees leaving the company without being replaced. I also believe that smart scanners are avaliable as well which would replace our current emerald sanners produced by motorola. Although smart scanners are not exactly automation, they DO feed the fire in the transformation of UPS. They will allow our loaders to work at what once was, an unrealistic speed (since there would be no checking involved). This cuts the amount of hours in which it takes to wrap a belt, and also cuts the staffing to bare minimum. I would say that each outbound belt would be able to drop one loader. That one loader would probably be sent to the primary to help pump out the volume into the outbound. The primary would finish up, and the outbound would wrap up nearly right after at .5 or 30 minutes afterwards on a daily basis. The amount of automation, and automation-like tools will increase over the years, and the M.A.R's will continue to climb in nearly every operational element.

Secondly, I see major contract refinements. Because of automation, the current contract is not up to date with the times. The current contract is based on past practice. I am not saying that the contract needs to be completely demolished, and re-written from scratch because it certainley does not. However, do not be suprised if the company pushes for production standards in the next contract. Automation takes skilled positions, de-skills them, and makes them entry level UPS jobs. The bid book for many part-time operational positions will be closed, and open positions will be filled by new hires. The changes are dramatic, and the company is very aggressive when it comes to reciving a return on investment with new operational equipment. These changes are already taking place in many hubs, and are scheduled to take place in the remaining hubs. These are not posibilities. They are the future.

Other changes will take place as a direct result of these two changes I am sure. Worst part is: I am only a part-time supervisor :smart:
 

ups1990

Well-Known Member
UPS must find it's next "greatest generation". Young people, who will move this company forward, continue to make it profitable and give UPS a strong base of well trained, dedicated drivers with a high level of integrity. We are all at the mercy of this young and up coming group of employees. The health of this incredible company, whose success we've all enjoyed, depends on them all. Our pension, our benefits and jobs hangs on the balance, if we cannot find good workers to take us into the future. I'm amazed at the history of UPS and those that have come before us. Every time we see a driver retiring after 30 years of service, He or She is taking a tremendous amount of experience with them and it must be replaced.
 
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Hubrat98

Well-Known Member
RogerThat,

Please get out of my head. Ditto to everything you wrote, including having the highly-respected part-time supervisor title.
 

SWORDFISH

Well-Known Member
UPS must find it's next "greatest generation". Young people, who will move this company forward, continue to make it profitable and give UPS a strong base of well trained. dedicated drivers with a high level of integrity. We are all at the mercy of this young and up coming group of employees. The health of this incredible company, whose success we've all enjoyed, depends on them all. Our pension, our benefits and jobs hangs on the balance, if we cannot find good workers to take us into the future. I'm amazed at the history of UPS and those that have come before us. Every time we see a driver retiring after 30 years of service, He or She is taking a tremendous amount of experience with them and it must be replaced.


+1 ... Then I will raise you one and say "give UPS a strong base of well trained. dedicated MANAGERS with a high level of integrity". Sorry in advance to the few managers out there that already fit the profile and please transfer to my center.
 

JustTired

free at last.......
Secondly, I see major contract refinements. Because of automation, the current contract is not up to date with the times. The current contract is based on past practice. I am not saying that the contract needs to be completely demolished, and re-written from scratch because it certainley does not. However, do not be suprised if the company pushes for production standards in the next contract. Automation takes skilled positions, de-skills them, and makes them entry level UPS jobs. The bid book for many part-time operational positions will be closed, and open positions will be filled by new hires. The changes are dramatic, and the company is very aggressive when it comes to reciving a return on investment with new operational equipment. These changes are already taking place in many hubs, and are scheduled to take place in the remaining hubs. These are not posibilities. They are the future.

I tend to agree........I highlighted the part I have a problem with. While I agree with your evaluation.....this is where the problem lies. Of course the company wants a "return on investment". It's the over-aggressiveness to achieve this return that causes the problem. To rush implementation and expect immediate results is where the problem lies. One has to look no further than the PAS/EDD system to see what shoddy implementation will achieve (or not achieve). If the company was serious about obtaining a good return on investment, they would allow those tasked with implementation the proper amount of time to do the job right. I'm not saying they need an open-ended time frame.........just one that is more realistic.

I guess the key word to all things UPS related would be "realistic". It seems they are looking for something better than a "best case scenario" and in doing so are achieving a lot less. At least on paper. JMO
 

NHDRVR

Well-Known Member
What do you think UPS will look like 20 yrs from now. Larger/Smaller. Union/Non-union. Will it go the way of REA and cease to exist?

Great question.

I think the company will probably have a small percentage in the increase of employees compared to 2010. (Technology is increasing the output of all of us)

I believe we will all be more efficient because of this. (Good for business so it's good for us)

I also believe we will still be unionized (I will be retired by then) but will it still be the Teamsters??? There is a lot of speculation that maybe different union representation will be a welcome change for the future. I do not mean this as a slap to the Teamsters but lets face it. The best thing for business is competition. Keeps interest higher and prices lower. The union is Big Business after all...
 

Floridacargocat

Well-Known Member
"Firstly, we will see more facilities step into the current times as corporate transportation vists our US hubs, and installs automation systems. These automation systems include NGSS (Next Generation Smalls Sort), Bullfrog (Fully automated smalls sort), MDS (Misload Detection System.. no visit from corporate required for installation), and more. Each automation system feeds the fire in transforming the hub operations. When I say that each automation system fuels the fire, I am saying that NGSS will cut building staffing needs and increase production in smalls sort, while MDS will raise the MAR to about 1/5000. The bullfrog will eliminate the need for any smalls sort staffing as it is fully automated. Therefore, I see a great reduction in the amount of employed part-time employees. I do not forsee any layoffs or such, but I do forsee part-time employees leaving the company without being replaced. I also believe that smart scanners are avaliable as well which would replace our current emerald sanners produced by motorola. Although smart scanners are not exactly automation, they DO feed the fire in the transformation of UPS. They will allow our loaders to work at what once was, an unrealistic speed (since there would be no checking involved). This cuts the amount of hours in which it takes to wrap a belt, and also cuts the staffing to bare minimum. I would say that each outbound belt would be able to drop one loader. That one loader would probably be sent to the primary to help pump out the volume into the outbound. The primary would finish up, and the outbound would wrap up nearly right after at .5 or 30 minutes afterwards on a daily basis. The amount of automation, and automation-like tools will increase over the years, and the M.A.R's will continue to climb in nearly every operational element."
The forecast regarding a higher level of automation - linked to an objective of lower frequency of misloads - is very appropriate. However this can only be accomplished by integrating misload detection and prevention systems (automated) into the system of loading package cars.
It is conceivable that such a system (misload detection & prevention) is based to a very high degree on a mechanized (or assisted mechanized) system, thus reducing manual labor to a significantly lower level. DHL/Deutsche Bundespost and the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany are working on such systems for quite a few years.
Other opportunities (such as damaged packages) will be taken care of, thus eliminating (to a large degree) late arrival of repacked/damaged goods in the load areas for package cars.
Unnecessary loading activities (e.g. businesses closed/moved etc.) will be reduced by significantly improved communication, thus avoiding unloading and reloading.
A smarter utilization of the technical means already existing will increase flow and productivity, but only when the "human intervention" part is reduced to a level in line with cost-effective technical loading systems. Increasing the flow and expecting higher and higher loading rates will only happen, when the entire "envelope" (i.e. means available) is enlarged and adjusted. Rotating at higher and higher speeds (= more and more pph) will results in overspeed and unexpected failures of components (and human input is one of them).
The technologies for higher flow rates exist (see Worldport), but can they be implemented for lower margin products such as "Ground" (Ground ist still the bread and butter of the company)? Once other business areas contribute more than 10 % of revenue and profit, Ground may not get the attention regarding necessary capital investment).
There are definitely areas of possible improvement; existing technology has to be used in a smarter way, not a harder way. Labor as a means of production is a resource which will be reduced by capital investment. Proper communication is one of the essential elements in this exercise. Forcing more and product through a given orifice/nozzle (hub/center) will lead to a degradation of the "extruded product" (from experience in a different area of industrial production), i.e. resulting in a loss of quality.

Another key opportunity will be to find personnel with a very high degree of service committment, doing the last mile (which is the visible part for a customer). Service committment cannot be whipped into a service provider; it has to be there from the beginning. Attitudes are changing, the lures of easy life and easy money is prevailing; discipline is taught and demonstrated at which level by whom? Hard work is appreciated by whom? (customers rarely see the amount of physical labor that goes into the distribution of goods). Health aspects will not matter that much when at the beginning of a "career", but constant over-demand will have an impact on wear and tear (ask any mechanical engineer) and things need to be replaced (ask any aviation engineer why they replace so many parts to keep airplanes flying). Which mechanical/bio-mechanical parts can you replace in a human being so that it would extend the "usable life" of a UPS service provider including all those in the entire distribution system?
 
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pemanager

Well-Known Member
From a hub operational stand point, I see two major changes in the coming years. I will list each change in chronological order, with the succeeding change being a direct result of it's predecessor.

Firstly, we will see more facilities step into the current times as corporate transportation vists our US hubs, and installs automation systems. These automation systems include NGSS (Next Generation Smalls Sort), Bullfrog (Fully automated smalls sort), MDS (Misload Detection System.. no visit from corporate required for installation), and more. Each automation system feeds the fire in transforming the hub operations. When I say that each automation system fuels the fire, I am saying that NGSS will cut building staffing needs and increase production in smalls sort, while MDS will raise the MAR to about 1/5000. The bullfrog will eliminate the need for any smalls sort staffing as it is fully automated. Therefore, I see a great reduction in the amount of employed part-time employees. I do not forsee any layoffs or such, but I do forsee part-time employees leaving the company without being replaced. I also believe that smart scanners are avaliable as well which would replace our current emerald sanners produced by motorola. Although smart scanners are not exactly automation, they DO feed the fire in the transformation of UPS. They will allow our loaders to work at what once was, an unrealistic speed (since there would be no checking involved). This cuts the amount of hours in which it takes to wrap a belt, and also cuts the staffing to bare minimum. I would say that each outbound belt would be able to drop one loader. That one loader would probably be sent to the primary to help pump out the volume into the outbound. The primary would finish up, and the outbound would wrap up nearly right after at .5 or 30 minutes afterwards on a daily basis. The amount of automation, and automation-like tools will increase over the years, and the M.A.R's will continue to climb in nearly every operational element.

Secondly, I see major contract refinements. Because of automation, the current contract is not up to date with the times. The current contract is based on past practice. I am not saying that the contract needs to be completely demolished, and re-written from scratch because it certainley does not. However, do not be suprised if the company pushes for production standards in the next contract. Automation takes skilled positions, de-skills them, and makes them entry level UPS jobs. The bid book for many part-time operational positions will be closed, and open positions will be filled by new hires. The changes are dramatic, and the company is very aggressive when it comes to reciving a return on investment with new operational equipment. These changes are already taking place in many hubs, and are scheduled to take place in the remaining hubs. These are not posibilities. They are the future.

Other changes will take place as a direct result of these two changes I am sure. Worst part is: I am only a part-time supervisor :smart:

Roger,

I don't disagree with the intent of your post but do have a couple of clarifications. The first is that you will not see any new Bullfrogs. There are other automated Smalls systems that have better process rates, service frequencies, etc that are the current standard. The second is that the automated small sorts do not eliminate small sort staffing. At the very least you will have folks who close and label bags. Most scenarios will also have inductors and / or debaggers.
 

constructively dissatisfi

Well-Known Member
In 20 years about 1 employee in 100 will recognize the name "Jim Casey". UPS will be no different from any other large public company in the way it treats customers and employees. Significant stock ownership by management employees will be a distant memory. Job titles will be gone too. Everyone will just be a "Head Count - grade 1" thru "Head Count - Grade 26". The last remaining copy of the Policy Book will be in the UPS Archive. Current employees of the day will get a chuckle when they read it, and won't believe the company was ever run that way. It would be very easy to make a case that we are most of the way there on most of these right now.
 

RoyalFlush

One of Them
What do you think UPS will look like 20 yrs from now. Larger/Smaller. Union/Non-union. Will it go the way of REA and cease to exist?

UPS will either replicate the FDX business model or they will be out of business. FDX is growing like gangbusters. UPS is struggling to hold on to what they already have. Owner operators and union concessions (non-union has been getting concessions for several years) will be necessary when there's no cost cutting left to cut (were getting close). As FDX improves efficiencies they'll easily continue to take market share in the core UPS business. Hopefully UPS will find a way to offset the loss of core business, but I don't see it happening. It's basic economics. FDX has a lower cost to serve and lower cost equals increased demand. Higher cost equals lower demand. FDX owner operators will continue to be motivated by profit opportunity, thus taking the most profitable packages. UPS will get the stuff FDX doesn't want and our employees will resist productivity as there is no incentive to work harder and no incentive to grow profits. Union employees (other's have no choice) won't accept concessions until the company is on the brink of disaster. It only takes a small reduction in revenue to wipe out all the profits when the fixed costs are high and profit margins as slim.

White trucks - the last sacred thing standing will be the brown trucks, but they won't last much longer...

Not wishful thinking or union bashing, just reality.
 
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