worldwide
Well-Known Member
"Monday there was an analysis published by Morgan Stanley out of Germany (Jan. 7, 2008) regarding its opinion of Deutsche Post as a stock. They are bullish on the DP stock because they believe that Deutsche Post is about to take some radical action here in the USA to reduce the operating losses of its DHL Express operation. Rumors in the marketplace were that DHL Express USA lost close to a billion dollars in 2006 and probably did not make a huge dent in the number in 2007. A similar train of thought regarding DHL Express was posed by Bear Sterns on December 6, 2007.
So what conclusion could this lead to? A suspicion could be that the radical change alluded to by the financial analysts is that Deutsche Post is going to downsize the domestic system in a significant way and in the not-too-distant future. One could suspect from the Morgan Stanley piece that in order to make their financial goals for 2008, Deutsche Post can’t wait very long to fix the loss situation in the US. This could mean a dramatic reduction in the number of flights they operate. It could mean they close terminals. It could mean they lay off a large number of employees. None of this spells improved service for shippers, or DHL lowering the price they offer in exchange for the reduction in service. The unthinkable that I believe the analysts are alluding to is that they (DHL Express USA) file for voluntary reorganization (most people call this bankruptcy). That does not mean that they go away, they just reorganize in a much smaller version of DHL and perhaps go back looking like the DHL of 2003. (Urban legend has it DHL was only losing $200 million a year pre-Airborne)"
So what conclusion could this lead to? A suspicion could be that the radical change alluded to by the financial analysts is that Deutsche Post is going to downsize the domestic system in a significant way and in the not-too-distant future. One could suspect from the Morgan Stanley piece that in order to make their financial goals for 2008, Deutsche Post can’t wait very long to fix the loss situation in the US. This could mean a dramatic reduction in the number of flights they operate. It could mean they close terminals. It could mean they lay off a large number of employees. None of this spells improved service for shippers, or DHL lowering the price they offer in exchange for the reduction in service. The unthinkable that I believe the analysts are alluding to is that they (DHL Express USA) file for voluntary reorganization (most people call this bankruptcy). That does not mean that they go away, they just reorganize in a much smaller version of DHL and perhaps go back looking like the DHL of 2003. (Urban legend has it DHL was only losing $200 million a year pre-Airborne)"
