A smart, experienced courier cannot be replaced by technology. No matter how much technology you thrust into the hands of an idiot, they'll still be an incompetent employee. First, unless the technology is completely simplified, they won't be able to use it properly. Second, as you just pointed out, what happens when it fails (and it will) and the idiot I just mentioned has no guidance except his/her own feeble mentality? Bad things.
What FedEx Corp is looking at is eliminating employees who are compensated at an equivalent rate of $25-28/hr (sum total of compensation divided per hour worked) and replacing them with employees making just over half of that. The efficiencies in getting labor to get more SPH have already been reached (although they constantly try to squeeze a bit more out).
The two methods of achieving that almost 50% reduction in labor costs is done with a two pronged approach: utilize part-time labor where labor is needed, utilize technology to eliminate the need to train the labor extensively (thus making the labor disposable if they complain too much). Screw ups will happen, but remember, FedEx Corp is no longer looking at providing exceptional service (that just costs too damn much), they are looking at providing good enough.
Quality has a price (to customers) and a cost to providers. What is being proven out is that the majority of customers would prefer a reduction in price, if that can be done with a slight reduction in quality of service.
FedEx used to be the "First Class" of package delivery services. What is happening is that FedEx believes - continuing the analogy - that they cannot be profitable and only offer First Class service, they've got to stuff the proverbial aircraft with as many "Coach" paying customers as possible to keep the operation going (from their point of view). Well, keeping that "Coach" operation going means that the employees of that future company cannot be compensated as much while maintaining (or growing) margins. They can try to increase volume of pieces, but in the end, in order to increase margins in a market that is practically constant in volume, they have to reduce labor costs. So guess who is going to "pay" for this future growth of the Corporation...
Really, think about it. Once FedEx Corporation bought the predecessor company of Ground and stuck the FedEx brand on it, they were no longer concerned about the FedEx brand being the absolute best. They wanted to cash in on the recognition that brand had and start to make it really pay - even if the brand didn't maintain its luster.
You've been at Express long enough (I wasn't there to remember this, but have heard of it), when Couriers were practically inspected each day for grooming and appearance. Uniforms had to be in excellent condition, Couriers properly groomed and devoid of "BO". When I started Express, the uniform standards were still there (no tattered uniforms), but by the time I left, management no longer commented on grooming standards at all and many Couriers were wearing uniforms over 5 years old with visible wear. Express was more concerned with cutting their uniform expense than in keeping their Couriers looking sharp. That should tell you something.
When labor makes up close to half the the total cost incurred by FedEx Corp in moving volume, if that labor cost on the pickup/delivery side of the operation can be cut by half - while maintaining a constant product pricing level - then margins will go through the roof. This is where FedEx is looking at improving its current margins of 4-8% (depending on opco) and pushing them up to the 15% level where they really want them. They want to do this while keeping all the perks established for the FedEx Corporate execs too - having their cake and eating at the same time. The people that will pay the price for all of this is the employees (wage employees in particular, but lower level salaried too).
The amazing thing about the problems Express is experiencing with the introduction of technology to the Courier side of the package movement business says more about the ineptitude of the IT department in Express more than anything else. I'm thinking this is where that Cheetah deal comes in. I'm thinking (after talking to a contact and taking notes) that part of FedEx's rationale for doing this (either cutting a deal with the existing company or buying it outright) is to gain access to the software (which actually works from what I'm reading). If this is indeed the case, the current IT department in FedEx will get the boot and replaced with the system developed by this company.
The obvious implication for Express wage employees is that if this software system is acquired by FedEx, proved to work in the planned Office application, then it can easily be ported over to Express and presto - the experienced Courier is no longer needed.
The writing is on the wall. Some choose to ignore it, others not. The complete disregard that Express showed in the latest pay raises demonstrates that they don't give a squat for those with under 12 years of service. This is telling. If they can keep those past 50% progression happy enough (or eliminate them for various reasons) while FedEx gets their vision implemented, then the hammer can be dropped on the employees with less than 12 years (hire date on or after 2000), and they will be powerless to do anything about it.
If this technology can be ported over to Express, then in the very unlikely event that future Express Couriers do indeed organize (fat chance in hell now) - a lockout can be performed and people taken off the street, put through a week long course in how to operate the technology and not play bumper cars while driving - and replace the whole lot.