Think the latest thing that's been really spooking investors has been the US Treasury bond yield curve inversion, which itself may have indeed been caused by investors' self-fulfilling prophecies of doom and gloom. They cash out of stocks and head to bonds. T-bond yields decrease as investor demand increases. Such yield curve inversions have preceded recessions by a year or two in 1978, 1988, 2000 and 2005/6. Did invert without preceding a recession in 1998.
Amazon building an air hub..do you think they can make ups go down?
- Thread starter Troylynn
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Think the latest thing that's been really spooking investors has been the US Treasury bond yield curve inversion, which itself may have indeed been caused by investors' self-fulfilling prophecies of doom and gloom. They cash out of stocks and head to bonds. T-bond yields decrease as investor demand increases. Such yield curve inversions have preceded recessions by a year or two in 1978, 1988, 2000 and 2005/6. Did invert without preceding a recession in 1998.
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
The housing bubble had burst in 2006. Subprime loans were being defaulted on left and right. Consumers were spending borrowed money. It was a ticking time bomb.
The greatest recession since the Great Depression didn’t happen just because news anchors claimed it might be the start of a recession. Come on. There were serious fundamental flaws in our banking system.
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
And the fact that we are in one of the longest stretches ever without a recession. Everyone knows it’s just a matter of time. The tax cuts probably put it off for a year or two but will make it worse in the long run.
Agree. I think it was a mistake for Congress to blow its stimulus load with the $1.5 T tax cuts during good economic times rather than saving them for a downturn.
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
Kick the can down the road. The politicians way for 100’s of years.
Overpaid Union Thug
Well-Known Member
The housing bubble alone would not cause a recession. Panic, as a result of convincing enough people to spend less money, can. When companies start to see the drastic dip in cash flow and makes cuts the recession that everyone feared has just been created. I remember listening to Dave Ramsey complain about this in 2008. He kept asking why the media kept claiming we were in a recession when, by definition, we weren't even halfway there yet. It was like they wanted a recession. Well, they got one.
It takes six months, by definition, of GDP loss to be considered a recession. It doesn't have to happen but when panic sets in after one month of GDP loss the stage is set. People need to just calm down and stop regurgitating premature fear.
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Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
People spent less because they were no longer buying homes with instant huge equity. Flippers had their asses handed to them. Builders were not building anymore. Just because we had not technically been going down that long doesn’t mean the signs were hard to see.
While not technically in a Recession yet auto sales had declined as early as 2006. Same with housing.
We didn’t have the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression because the media scared people. There were fundamental flaws whose time finally came up.
Overpaid Union Thug
Well-Known Member
People not affected by the housing boom spent less and had a more drastic affect on the economy than the minority of people involved in the housing crisis. That 70% is huge. The housing crisis was, is, definitely a problem but fear mongering, both by individuals but fueled by the media, caused what should have been a GDP loss of two or three months into a full blown recession. Panic and misinformation togerher are a powerful thing.
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
We had banks that had given out so many risky loans they had to be bailed out by the government to keep from going under. That was never gonna be a 2-3 month downturn.
Of course they do, UPS is just a small speck compared to what Amazon does revenue wise. Also, drones are going to put UPS out of business while day
Overpaid Union Thug
Well-Known Member
True but that's not a recession. Nor should it cause one. While my helper and I were eating lunch at Wendy's there were two tv's on tuned to two different "news" channels. Both were in full doom and gloom mode about a recession. We both were wondering how many people were watching, or had watched similar "reports" and took it as factual. That is dangerous.
Mooseknuckle
Well-Known Member
Well. they are already impacting a lot of retailers...
Overpaid Union Thug
Well-Known Member
Might be too early for them to look at Amazon but the USPS should have been looked at years ago. How is a legitimate business supposed to compete with a government entity that can undercut them because they don't have to worry about profits? Not to mention all the other unfair advantages they have over private companies. The USPS needs to go.
Rick Ross
I'm into distribution!!
Forget Drones. Amazon’s Jeff Bezos Needs Lots of Delivery Guys
A guy with 40 Amazon trucks is making roughly $1000 off of each per month. He has roughly 2 employees per truck and works that vehicle every day of the month to make $33 per day in profit and I'm guessing that is gross profit.
What do you think will happen when he starts factoring in major maintenance issues or has to raise wages to keep employees? What if he has a major breakdown and also needs a rental?
These vehicles are gonna be falling apart in 2-3 years if they are run every day, especially with throw away employees.
And some on here think this will bankrupt UPS in a matter of years...fools!
A guy with 40 Amazon trucks is making roughly $1000 off of each per month. He has roughly 2 employees per truck and works that vehicle every day of the month to make $33 per day in profit and I'm guessing that is gross profit.
What do you think will happen when he starts factoring in major maintenance issues or has to raise wages to keep employees? What if he has a major breakdown and also needs a rental?
These vehicles are gonna be falling apart in 2-3 years if they are run every day, especially with throw away employees.
And some on here think this will bankrupt UPS in a matter of years...fools!
Foamer Pyle
Well-Known Member
Amazon is about 15% of our business.
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
And online shopping is supposed to almost double in 3 years.
Foamer Pyle
Well-Known Member
Amazon is only one online retailer.
And 50% of our headaches
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
The post office should only be allowed to price match. They have a monopoly on mail service that gives them a built in advantage
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