dow 23000

PASinterference

Yes, I know I'm working late.
Waiting until after Peak would be like protesting against a winning candidate after the election.

I can see us walking sometime Thanksgiving week.
That was my point, Dave. Like negotiating a contract with obvious loopholes that a 3rd grader would have caught. We just go through the motions now.
 

Benben

Working on a new degree, Masters in BS Detecting!
Tax reform is getting pushed into next year

Don't bet the farm on that. Trump doesn't have 1 legislative win yet and its October! Mueller and company are working 100x's harder than the White House. I would not be surprised if something (no matter how small) gets rammed through so that the powers that be can point to something that resembles a win.

2018 mid terms are right around the corner. Can you see DC doing something that can be twisted by the other side 2 or even 4 months before people vote? Factor in the bills from Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico coming into focus around January with the National Debt being revised and the cost of tax reform is going to be a small mountain to climb.
 

twoweeled

Well-Known Member
Yet somehow I bet your pension funds overall balance is down
True. I wonder how that happens! I also wonder why no one is surprised. That's probably why it happens, in part.
puzzled-look.jpg
 

twoweeled

Well-Known Member
You are equating 2 different values as if they were the same thing.


Trying to "time the market" is a fools errand unless you are in charge of say a $10 billion fund and can actually influence the market. Take a look at dividend investing. Its a lot less stressful.


I like how you are thinking. If we get Tax Reform there's going to be some crazy speculation. Hell one of the apps I have ran an article about the possibility of Apple buying Ford! If US Corps are able to repatriate money on the cheap I think the market is going to go sky high. I think if we get the Estate Tax removed We'll see a short term dip as (and IF) Charitable Trusts get dissolved and the money goes to the heirs. I think if Tax Reform falters in any way we will see a major correction in the short term as a warning to DC. Kind of like what we saw for 2 days right after Obama won his second term. I missed that chance but have dry powder waiting for this possibility.
you should read up on dollar cost averaging.
I'm aware of dollar cost averaging. I really just play the market for fun. I actually enjoy it. I don't think I'm beating the market overall, but I'm doing what I wasn't able to do when I was working. It's fun for me, but it's a lot more fun when I'm making a bunch of good moves. Which we all know isn't realistic. I am getting fairly close to setting myself up with dividend funds and mix and letting it go. We'll see. I think you are one of the people who mentioned a certain fund you went into. I remember looking into that. I think it was very conservative? We'll see what happens!
 

twoweeled

Well-Known Member
We are due for a correction. Does that correction become a recession is the million dollar question.
True! If it happens, there a long way down to go. Looking at a 1 year chart of DJ, S&P, Nas 100 is just too sweet. Just up and up! I don't know about a recession, but a pullback is long over due. but I've been expecting that for 3-4 months and it just doesn't seem to be coming. It's almost as though the market is trying to draw all the people sitting on the sidelines in, so the market can push everyone over a cliff! Sort of a house cleaning. I don't think I'm as crazy as I sound. Or maybe I am? LOL!
 

twoweeled

Well-Known Member
I had 738 shares of Apple which I sold at $161/share. I made just under $50K. I used the proceeds to fund my
S&P 400 and Russell 2000.
Yeah, that Apple can be a winner. I hesitated buying more aapl after this little pullback they had I think to about $150. We all knew it was going to come back to $160. I bought some, but not as much as I should've. I may get another chance close to that. Russel seems to be having issues, but could be it's time?
 

olroadbeech

Happy Verified UPSer
I'm aware of dollar cost averaging. I really just play the market for fun. I actually enjoy it. I don't think I'm beating the market overall, but I'm doing what I wasn't able to do when I was working. It's fun for me, but it's a lot more fun when I'm making a bunch of good moves. Which we all know isn't realistic. I am getting fairly close to setting myself up with dividend funds and mix and letting it go. We'll see. I think you are one of the people who mentioned a certain fund you went into. I remember looking into that. I think it was very conservative? We'll see what happens!
ive got a friend who is a day trader. he has a computer with 7 screens and is making trades all day......a trading junkie.

some days he does great , other days not so good. he admitted to me that he is down overall. if he had put all his money in the Vanguard 500 he would be up whatever the s and p is up for 2017.

we have made 65k this year from all our conservative investments this year. not bragging cause know it could be all wiped out tomorrow .

we are thinking of buying a rental. we do diversify quite a bit with precious metals , REIT mutuals , bonds, etc. since being retired , we have moved more stuff into very conservative areas.

it is fun to play with the market, I agree. I do that with our SMA. It's almost exactly like casino gambling and you should only do that with money you can afford to lose........unless you are another Buffet.

good luck.
 

twoweeled

Well-Known Member
ive got a friend who is a day trader. he has a computer with 7 screens and is making trades all day......a trading junkie.

some days he does great , other days not so good. he admitted to me that he is down overall. if he had put all his money in the Vanguard 500 he would be up whatever the s and p is up for 2017.

we have made 65k this year from all our conservative investments this year. not bragging cause know it could be all wiped out tomorrow .

we are thinking of buying a rental. we do diversify quite a bit with precious metals , REIT mutuals , bonds, etc. since being retired , we have moved more stuff into very conservative areas.

it is fun to play with the market, I agree. I do that with our SMA. It's almost exactly like casino gambling and you should only do that with money you can afford to lose........unless you are another Buffet.

good luck.
Yep, all true. It is like gambling. Sometimes I'll get in a mood where I just wanna do something. I'll grab something volatile with movement. buy enough of something on an uptrend and you can make a couple of bucks. You can also lose a few if it turns on you. The only Buffet I know, is the one I eat at.
 

twoweeled

Well-Known Member
If we allow pvds and are required to pay for health care we had better strike.
We should have had a strike at the last contract negotiations. I get the feeling UPS is willing to deal with a strike. I think UPS sees how weak the Union has become and how much stronger the company has become (aggressive too). The Union doesn't want a strike and won't be offering that as an option, Unless forced to do so. The Union will lose too much money going into a strike. I also don't believe the teamsters themselves will vote or push for strike. I also believe you will be paying something/someway for Healthcare. Maybe it'll just start out with reduced benefits. Then, "Oh, you'd like the same level of benefits? Well we can give them to you, but it'll cost you". Then you have just started paying for the same benefits, you've always had. One way or another, you will be paying for Healthcare. The Union will tell you, "well everyone is paying for healthcare", like if that should matter. Once you start paying, it'll just go up from there. Once that door is opened, there is no going back, EVER!! This next contract should open everyone's eyes to trend of our future. We're like the boxer who is swinging while moving backwards. UPS is coming forward and swinging. I'd be surprised if any Teamster sees us pushing the company backwards?
 

Faceplanted

Well-Known Member
Unless you have insider info the stock market is just like gambling on sports. You do the research, you play the emotions of humans and how they react, and you predict.

Both sports and the stock market have made people lots of money.
 
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