Last Democratic Recession

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Meat, Aug 16, 2019.

  1. Meat

    Meat Active Member

    Has it really been 70 years since the last recession started under a Democratic presidency (1949)?
     
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  2. Indecisi0n

    Indecisi0n Well-Known Member

    Trump caused it
     
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  3. Obviously it's the Jew's fault.
    MAGA
     
  4. Old Man Jingles

    Old Man Jingles Rat out of a cage

    If one is a DemWit that is the default assignment of blame.
     
  5. If one is a little c uck for Israel she will defend her Jew leaders.
    Carry on.
     
  6. bacha29

    bacha29 Well-Known Member

    What does come to mind is the .Com bubble that was beginning to burst at the tail end on the Clinton presidency which to some degree spilled over into the Bush II presidency which was exasperated by 9-11. It serves as example as to why presidential administrations and presidential legacy's are often impacted by conditions they inherit and are in many cases beyond their control.
     
  7. Old Man Jingles

    Old Man Jingles Rat out of a cage

    Racist Anti-Semitic POS!
     
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  8. newfie

    newfie Well-Known Member

    jimmy carter
     
  9. Meat

    Meat Active Member

    Oddly enough, it doesn’t look like that’s the case.
     
  10. Meat

    Meat Active Member

    Attention Mods:

    The above poster is offering a nuanced point of view, which seems to be strictly forbidden on this site.

    Please ban him for life ASAP.
     
  11. It will be fine

    It will be fine Well-Known Member

    You mean the guy that basically solved inflation?
     
  12. Yup I'm a Trump voter now.
     
  13. silverbullet2893

    silverbullet2893 KILL KILL!!

  14. newfie

    newfie Well-Known Member

    1980 to 82
     
  15. Old Man Jingles

    Old Man Jingles Rat out of a cage

    Stagflation - The Carter Years
    'Solving inflation' is a very generous description.
    Inflation was around 6% (still high) in 1976 but Carter via Volcker's monetary policies pushed the inflation rate up to 13.5% on purpose.

    Carter cannot be blamed for the double-digit inflation that peaked on his watch, because inflation started growing in 1965 and snowballed for the next 15 years. To battle inflation, Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, who defeated it by putting the nation through an intentional recession. Once the threat of inflation abated in late 1982, Volcker cut interest rates and flooded the economy with money, fueling an expansion that lasted seven years. Neither Carter nor Reagan had much to do with the economic events that occurred during their terms.

    In 1980, the "misery index" -- unemployment plus inflation -- crested 20 percent for the first time since World War II. Ronald Reagan blamed this on Jimmy Carter, and went on to win the White House. Reagan then caught the business cycle on an upswing, for what conservatives call "the Seven Fat Years" or "the longest economic expansion in peacetime history."

    In the following chart, take special notice of the long, slow climb in the inflation column:

    Year Inflation Unemployment (1)
    -------------------------------
    1961 1.0% 6.7%
    1962 1.0 5.6
    1963 1.3 5.6
    1964 1.3 5.2
    1965 1.6 4.5 < Vietnam war spending increases
    1966 2.9 3.8
    1967 3.1 3.8
    1968 4.2 3.5

    1969 5.5 3.5
    1970 5.7 5.0
    1971 4.4 6.0
    1972 3.2 5.6
    1973 6.2 4.9
    1974 11.0 5.6 < First oil crisis
    1975 9.1 8.5
    1976 5.8 7.7

    1977 6.5 7.1 Carter takes office
    1978 7.6 6.1
    1979 11.3 5.9 < Second oil crisis
    1980 13.5 7.2

    1981 10.3 7.6 Reagan takes office
    1982 6.2 9.7
    1983 3.2 9.6
    1984 4.3 7.5


    Stagflation happened to reach its peak on Carter's watch, spurred on by the 1979 oil shock. How Carter can be blamed for a trend that began a decade and a half earlier is a mystery -- and a testimony as to how presidential candidates often exploit the public's economic ignorance for their own political gain.

    However, Carter did in fact take a tremendously important step in ending stagflation. He nominated Paul Volcker for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Volcker was committed to eradicating stagflation by giving the nation some bitter medicine: an intentional recession. In 1980, Volcker tightened the money supply, which stopped job growth in the economy. In response to hard times, businesses began cutting their prices, and workers their wage demands, to stay in business. Volcker argued that eventually this would wring inflationary expectations out of the system.

    The recovery of 1981 was unintentional, and with inflation still high, Volcker tightened the money supply even more severely in 1982. This resulted in the worst recession since the Great Depression. Unemployment in the final quarter of 1982 soared to over 10 percent, and Volcker was accused of the "cold-blooded murder of millions of jobs." Even high-ranking members of Reagan's staff were vehemently opposed to his actions. Congress actually considered bringing the independent Fed under the government's direct control, to avoid such economic pain in the future. Today, economists calculate that the cost of Volcker's anti-inflation medicine was $1 trillion -- an astounding sum. But Wall Street demanded that Volcker stay the course, and that may have been the only thing that saved him.

    In the late summer of 1982, inflation looked defeated, so Volcker sharply expanded the money supply. Once as high as 14 percent in 1981, the Fed's discount rate fell from 11 to 8.5 percent between August and December 1982. Within months, the economy roared to life, and took off on an expansion that would last seven years. Because the recession had been so deep, and the number of available workers so large (with not only laid-off workers waiting to return to work, but also a record number of women seeking to join the workforce), the recovery was guaranteed to be long and healthy.
     
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  16. oldngray

    oldngray nowhere special

    Whoever wrote that loves Carter almost as much as you do.
     
  17. Old Man Jingles

    Old Man Jingles Rat out of a cage

    Carter in 1976 was the last time I voted for a Democrat for President.
    Reagan in 1980 was the first time I voted for a Republican for President.
    Reagan in 1984 was the last time I voted for a Republican for President.
    1988 was the first time I voted for 3rd party candidate for President - Ron Paul.
     
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  18. Old Man Jingles

    Old Man Jingles Rat out of a cage

    I have always stood by Volcker's monetary policies for that place in time.
    By 1978, I had already resigned Carter to the trash bin of Presidential ineptitude.
    Ironically, he has been the most positive and respectable President after leaving office ... other than his involvement in American Partisan Politics in which he is perhaps the worst ex-President in my lifetime.
     
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  19. oldngray

    oldngray nowhere special

    We were stuck in stagflation and Volker had to take drastic steps to shock the system out of it. Short term pain but long term gains.

    Carter wasn't as bad as history makes him out to be. Mostly he was in over his head and state politics in Georgia didn't prepare him to run the country. And I agree he needs to keep his nose out politics now. He is a smart man making himself look stupid.
     
  20. It will be fine

    It will be fine Well-Known Member

    That’s just a long winded way of saying Carter solved inflation. He let the Fed do its thing and didn’t interfere despite it costing him a second term. It’s called patriotism, not something Republicans understand.
     
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