Question for you IE boys and girls

[dannyboy]

I know you pride yourselves in the proper and accurate completion of your part of the job at UPS.

So how was it that your department missed the volume so badly.

From Thankgiving on, it was not even close. Here, the week after thanksgiving our volume was above the volume projected for peak week.

And the volume we had the three days before Christmas was also off by more than 300%.

Not to mention that this is the first year we have kept rentals this far into the first of the year.

this extra volume shipments that were to be delivered before Christmas, but was not processed? Or are we seeing an unusual trend in that we will not have the huge layoffs that were ordained before the new year?

You guys have all the answers, how about sharing them. What happened/is happening?

What happened that the projections got missed so badly?

Not that we are complaining. Job security is a great thing. But if we are to rely on data for our business plan, and that data is off by 50-300%, what good is it?

d

 

[trplnkl]

LOL, good luck on getting a clear response.

 

[dannyboy]

One more thing befor I go.

This is not to fault find or affix some sort of blame game.

I am really interested in what skewed or affected your numbers so badly that gave us the results that we saw/are seeing.

I know the easiest would have been to have forgotten to move the decimal point, but I dont think so.

and now that the season is over, it should be pretty easy to figure out.

d

 

[gded]

LOL, good luck on getting a clear response.

u wont get a response, cause they don't know the answer. maybe someone hit a delite button while they had their foot on the computer looking at drivers riding around.

 

[brownman15]

less drivers and trucks means more money in there pockets

 

[atatbl]

lol @ thinking the game plan for this involved a numerical mistake or bad forecast.

 

[brownman15]

the same thing happened here in the chicago area our center only hired 1 seasonal driver and gave every route a helper even bus routes and expected us 2 do twice the work. then looked surprised when they tried 2 send out res routes with 400 to 500 stops when those routes only did 170 to 200 non-peak. this was the worst peak ever worked 60hrs every week. had some people that could only work 5-8 hrs on fridays because they were working 13-14hrs the other 4 days they were bringing back 150-200 stops back so they did not violate. center manager response was pkgs not guaranteed they will eventually get delivered.

 

[Channahon]

This article may have some answers to your questions.

UPS won’t project peak-day package volume


By Harry R. Weber • Associated Press • November 16, 2008

ATLANTA — Weak October retail sales and the uncertainty of the upcoming holiday season amid the worst financial crisis to hit the U.S. in decades have prompted shipping giant UPS to decide not to release a projection for the number of packages it expects to deliver on its busiest day of the year.

It’s the first year since the world’s largest shipping carrier went public in 1999 that it won’t make that projection, spokesman Norman Black said. The company had been scheduled to discuss its peak projection during an online news conference Tuesday, but that has been canceled, Black said.

The Atlanta-based company also will not project how many seasonal employees it will hire this year to help it through the holiday shipping season, Black said.

Louisville and its Worldport sorting hub are a major part of holiday shipping at UPS. The company said last month that it expected to hire about 900 local seasonal workers this year — down from 1,100 in 2007. Company spokesman Mike Mangeot said Sunday that the local hiring estimate hasn’t changed. UPS employs about 20,500 people locally.

Last year, UPS delivered more than 22 million packages on its peak shipping day, which was Dec. 19, and it hired about 60,000 seasonal employees globally.

UPS has roughly 425,000 employees worldwide, 358,000 of whom are in this country.

“This year, early indicators — such as the just-reported 2.8 percent drop in October retail sales — are making any projection difficult” for the holiday season, Black said. “So while it is a bit unusual for UPS not to make peak projections, these are unusual times for the U.S. economy.”

He said, “We’re just not comfortable making public projections this year.”

UPS reported last month that its third-quarter profit fell nearly 10 percent. It also projected its full-year earnings per share will come in toward the lower end of the guidance of $3.50 to $3.70 it gave in July. It warned that U.S. shipping volume would be down about 4 percent in the fourth quarter, which includes the holiday shipping period.

Separately, UPS has been hoping to complete an agreement with DHL by the end of the year that would involve UPS carrying some of DHL’s air packages. However, on Nov. 10, Deutsche Post AG, the German parent of DHL, said it will no longer offer U.S. domestic-only air and ground services as of Jan. 30, though international shipping to and from the U.S. will continue.

The decision could lead to higher shipping prices and greatly scale back the possible venture between UPS and DHL, the fourth-largest shipper of packages in the U.S. DHL, which has been hit by heavy losses and fierce competition, is cutting 9,500 American jobs.


Having been gone for a while, here's my perspective on the volume projections for this peak season.

Peak volume is based on historical data, meaning data from last peak was used, index the economy, and consumer spending, the projections are estimated by center, division and district.

Understanding the state of the economy, and how dismal the retail reports were for this year, add to that massive layoffs that came after the Wall St meltdown, the Big 3 auto issues, foreclosures and mall stores going out of business. Many consumers expressed concern about spending what money they had on Christmas gifts.

DHL leaving the ground business would be another factor, in both ground and international, however, that volume could have either gone to UPS or FedEx.

If you remember UPS did not even publicly state what they thought peak volume would be this year, the first time ever since 1978, that I can remember.

Has anyone heard what the peak volume was for 2008 as opposed to projected volume, because I haven't seen or heard anything in a press release

 

[upsgrunt]

Let me add something to this. Since fuel prices were down, and stops and volume were up, when do we get to hear the "good news" about how our revenue and profits are/were up instead of the gloom and doom and how we need to cut back and have layoffs. In other words, share the good news as well as the bad with us- we all help row this ship.

 

[atatbl]

Let me add something to this. Since fuel prices were down, and stops and volume were up, when do we get to hear the "good news" about how our revenue and profits are/were up instead of the gloom and doom and how we need to cut back and have layoffs. In other words, share the good news as well as the bad with us- we all help row this ship.

Fuel prices are based on the previous quarter. Makes predicting unnecessary (or so the thought goes).

 

[Cementups]

IE = Intercourse and Exercise..................If they're not busy screwing you, then they are giving you the run around.

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

Let me add something to this. Since fuel prices were down, and stops and volume were up, when do we get to hear the "good news" about how our revenue and profits are/were up instead of the gloom and doom and how we need to cut back and have layoffs. In other words, share the good news as well as the bad with us- we all help row this ship.

We all may help row this ship but only a select few get to go up on deck.

 

[cancun]

Were the volume spikes the results of the DHL conversion efforts?

 

[tieguy]

I know you pride yourselves in the proper and accurate completion of your part of the job at UPS.

So how was it that your department missed the volume so badly.

From Thankgiving on, it was not even close. Here, the week after thanksgiving our volume was above the volume projected for peak week.

And the volume we had the three days before Christmas was also off by more than 300%.

Not to mention that this is the first year we have kept rentals this far into the first of the year.

this extra volume shipments that were to be delivered before Christmas, but was not processed? Or are we seeing an unusual trend in that we will not have the huge layoffs that were ordained before the new year?

You guys have all the answers, how about sharing them. What happened/is happening?

What happened that the projections got missed so badly?

Not that we are complaining. Job security is a great thing. But if we are to rely on data for our business plan, and that data is off by 50-300%, what good is it?

d

its really not that difficult to explain. they take last years numbers and then bump the projections up or down depending on current trends. In this case the pressure was on from corporate to project down. If you wanted to plan your volume being up then you had to be able to explain it. With the september / october volume swoon that many of us saw it was difficult for planners justifying the volume being up during peak. I dealt with this all through peak. Region level planners arguing as if there would be no peak at all.

 

[Big Babooba]

Were the volume spikes the results of the DHL conversion efforts?

DHL = Didn't Have a Lot

 

[dilligaf]

......................................................
Having been gone for a while, here's my perspective on the volume projections for this peak season.

Peak volume is based on historical data, meaning data from last peak was used, index the economy, and consumer spending, the projections are estimated by center, division and district.................................

Chan, theoretically speaking, if UPS planned according to last years numbers then one could say that UPS should have been over-staffed. At our center our peak day was, at least a 1/4 less than what we had last year and probably closer to 1/2 of what we had last year. Last year we ran 21-23 rtes, this year we had for the most part 19 rtes. Setting aside the economy index and consumer spending (which we knew was going to be down), based only on volume from last year, UPS was still horribly unprepared. Starting the season (and for that matter, working the whole year) understaffed does not help.

 

[soberups]

In this case the pressure was on from corporate to project down. If you wanted to plan your volume being up then you had to be able to explain it.

Corporate didn't want there to be a peak, because they didnt want to spend the money on it.

Therefore, the pressure was on to IE to tell Corporate what it wanted to hear instead of what it needed to hear.

The underlying problem with IE is a total lack of accountability. IE makes its projections and mandates the number of routes that each center is allowed to dispatch, but is then free of any responsibility for actually making service on those packages when its projections are wrong.

I remember prior to Y2K when everyone was worried about the computers malfunctioning. There was a guy, I cant remember his name, who was in charge of making sure that the all of the nation's airport flight control radars and computers would be updated to work properly on 1-1-00. This guy made an announcement that he and his family would be on an aircraft making final approach and landing just after 12:00 AM on New Years Day. THAT my friends is accountability, and being willing to stand behind your numbers. We need that kind of accountability from IE. What we have instead are a bunch of butt-kissing number crunchers who can hide in an office when their "projections" are off by 300% because they never have to get their hands dirty cleaning up the resulting mess.

 

[dannyboy]

He said, “We’re just not comfortable making public projections this year.”

But they did not have any discomfort cutting back on the people trained and hired. And not allowing many part timers extra hours, well that is just poor business practices.

Nothing like a politician. That should read, we dont have a clue what will happen this christmas. and to keep from looking like a bunch of fools, we are not saying what we are planning. Cause we aint.

In this case the pressure was on from corporate to project down. If you wanted to plan your volume being up then you had to be able to explain it.

I see how that works. The guys with the view have a vision, and they dictate what will be. Without any proof, any documentation, nothing. They put the pressure on everyone else to agree with them. The only exception is when you can explain (read prove beyond a shadow of doubt) your plan for peak volume to be up.

So they can rely on the doomers and gloomers of wall street to talk us into a recession, but the rest of us have to see and prove the future before we are allowed to act on it. An impossible task.

The story of the emperor and his no clothes comes to mind here.

With the september / October volume swoon that many of us saw it was difficult for planners justifying the volume being up during peak. I dealt with this all through peak. Region level planners arguing as if there would be no peak at all

Hello, its christmas.........Lets see, historical data shows that there has been a peak since when, the 20's or before? Even during the depression, there was christmas and peak. So why would there not be a peak now?

It sounds like to me that Region level planners arguing as if there would be no peak at all this would be a great place to start with those 5-10% employee cuts.

One last thing tie, and I know this will put you in the hot seat.

Why and where is the post season volume coming from? Is it volume that we picked up before christmas and just could not work it into the already maxed system, or is our economy not as bad as those regional planers think.

Best

d

 

[rod]

Being in IE must be like being a weatherman making a long range forecast. Nobody believes you because you've made so many wrong predictions that all your creditability is gone

 

[705red]

its really not that difficult to explain. they take last years numbers and then bump the projections up or down depending on current trends. In this case the pressure was on from corporate to project down. If you wanted to plan your volume being up then you had to be able to explain it. With the september / october volume swoon that many of us saw it was difficult for planners justifying the volume being up during peak. I dealt with this all through peak. Region level planners arguing as if there would be no peak at all.

Here lies a huge problem! This is were every day managers after having all of their power removed and being yes men for the previous 10 months of the year were lost and not sure on how to explain.

You can not take power away from the operations managers and than expect their input after disregarding everything they have said previously. Why would any one of these managers be willing to stand up and say whats right, when after all its a forbidden practice within our company!