The annual vacation bidding process does offer the chance to gather some VITAL information about the typical Express Courier (which would determine if Express has a snowball's chance in hell of organizing). Express already has this information as part of their employee demographic information - if a serious attempt at organizing is to be done, the organizers will need to know the 'lay of the land' prior to really getting into the process...
Here's the logic...
Most Couriers with between 2 and 10 years in almost always want to sign a union card if given the opportunity (all from my first hand experience while I was a Courier). Those with over 20 years will almost NEVER sign a card if offered and are openly hostile to the concept. Those with 10-15 years in want the extra compensation being a union member would offer, but are very hesitant to sign a card without some list of 'guarantees' being met prior. Those with 15-20 years in are generally against, but if they are ticked off enough, are willing.
What is needed is an idea of what the median 'time in' is for Express Couriers.
With the vacation bidding listings out, this info can be gathered on a station level basis quite easily.
Look at the vacation bidding sheet. Look at the total number of Couriers listed. Divide that number by 2, then look for that Courier's date of hire.
Example: Your station has 48 Couriers bidding for vacation. Divide 48 by 2 to get '24'. Look down the roster to the 24th Courier, and note their date of hire. That's it. It is called the statistical median, and is useful in generating information as to where the 'dividing line' is between the top and bottom half of a population (in this case, the 'population' of station Couriers).
If my 'hypothesis' is correct, if the median Express Courier has 10 or less years in (hire date 2003 or later), then Express Couriers have a DAMN GOOD CHANCE of pulling off organizing if they get to work NOW. If the median Express Courier has 13 or more years in (median hire date 2000 or earlier), then the odds are slim (in my opinion).
What would be needed is as many posters here to report this information in. DO NOT GIVE STATION ID. Just give the median date of hire for the station you work at and leave it at that. If you want, give the REGION you are in, but nothing lower down (no info as to what district you are in).
There aren't enough posters here among all the Express stations to give a really hyper-accurate statistic, but there should be enough to give a decent idea (large statistical margin of error).
If you guys and gals are serious about organizing, this is part of the process, gathering the information about the group you wish to organize and making a determination as to whether or not it is actually possible - or just wishful thinking on your part.
The more that submit the median date of hire for their station the better, but at least 20 would be needed to have any sort of 'confidence' in that the data is applicable to the US as a whole (RLA is nationwide, not location by location).
