What happens to all the new people once they have it figured out? Just toss them out? From what I have been seeing, PM Ops are in free fall because DRA doesn't "consider" the pickup cycle, which causes huge problems with Dispatch, and most of the new couriers are worthless, at least for now. Our station is sending untrained new hires on the road to do pickups every day...with predictable results. And I think you're right that the switchover to Ground might be accelerated in order to mitigate the DRA disaster. This would explain the current move of Ground hiring temporary drivers through temp agencies.
Between the natural attrition that is taking place right now and a certain amount of these new hires quitting in short order (once they figure out their job won't just be delivering docs and FedEx boxes...), Express won't have any problems. They are anticipating enough turnover to prevent having a handful getting minimums with nothing to do once they've served their purpose.
In all reality, a part-time Courier that is young (no health insurance costs - Express is self insured), only costs Express about $20,000 a year. In the greater scheme of things, this is chump change. Train them up to work DRA, some will quit, some will take the routes that currently exist when those Couriers have had enough. The actual cost when everything is balanced out across a station to get DRA ironed out and prevent service failures is minimal. Hell, they are spending $600 MILLION to get rid of the Memphis dead weight. Spending $100,000 per typical station in additional personnel expense is nothing (depending on assumptions one uses, this will cost Express between $40 and $60 MILLION to perform across all stations nationwide). It's not like they are paying union wages and benefits to these people....
In the greater scheme of things, even paying $100 MILLION to perfect DRA, will ensure that Express will be able to save that $250 MILLION EACH YEAR afterwards in terms of not needing experienced Couriers any longer. In terms of cash flow and return on investment, it is a no-brainer - get the program to work, then tell the current Couriers (in so many words), "friend... Off!!".
As far as the switchover.... they want to have DRA 'perfected' before they even think about it. They know damn good and well once they announce the shiftover, the topped out idiots will see the light and change their tune towards organizing real quick. This is why the 'damn the torpedoes' push to get DRA implemented and functioning to a certain degree of proficiency.
I had a friend send me yet another manifest and mapping for a DRA route this AM. It was for today, May 17th. He went ahead and sent me the RTB time of the route in question this PM (to compare to the predicted, "planned return building time") - and it was only off by a few minutes.
I took a look at the area (it is for an area I'm roughly familiar with), and I could EASILY follow it and get off volume. I did notice there was what appeared to be some backtracking in the stop ordering (by following the trace, it is obvious that some U turns would be involved, and there are some instances of crossing back and forth across a busy multilane state highway). It DEFINITELY isn't as good as an experienced Courier, BUT
it isn't intended to be. It breaks out stops that are at the same address (but different suites) quite logically. For instance, if "Stop 18" has multiple suites in it, the manifest has them listed in order: 18, 18.2, 18.3, 18.4, etc, etc.
I, yes I, after being out for almost 3 years and the last time I ran a delivery route was during peak 2009, could've shown up to the station in question, pulled the freight, placed it in stop order (with no assistance), hit the road and got the volume off with productivity of between 85-90% of that of an experienced Courier who regularly runs the route. The stop sequencing print out has the stops in order, with number of docs and boxes, along with intended recipient. All I'd have to do (being a clueless drone at this stage), would be to have 2 clipboards with me - one in the cab that has the map plot of the stops, another in the cargo area that has the piece count per stop, and I could run the route WITHOUT having been taken out on the route before hand. This is why I say that DRA (once a route has all of its issues ironed out), ACCOMPLISHES WHAT EXPRESS INTENDS FOR IT.
Once a station's routes have been correctly adjusted for DRA, that station could literally, bring in a fresh crop of Couriers who are trained in DRA procedure, RANDOMLY assign each to a route, send them out and get some decent productivity. Now admittedly, the first day, there would be issues. But if the same new hire Courier was to run the same route for a month, by the beginning of the 2nd week they'd be at 85-90% productivity, by the end of the month, I'd wager they'd be at 95% of productivity of an experienced Courier.
Do you all see where this is going for Express - it is plain as day to me...
You may be thinking (as an experienced Courier), "What about customer service"?
Express no longer cares about Couriers delivering customer service!!!! Just look at the call centers, just look at Ground.
If customers want service, they are instructed to call the 1-800 number or their sales agent. The Courier isn't required to think in the 'new' Express - the Courier is merely to get the pieces delivered or picked up from the correct location and move to the next 'dot on the map' on time. And yes, with DRA plotting and time estimations, there is NO TIME for 'customer service', there is only time to get to the next stop, get the pieces, drop them, get a signature if needed and run. Package Jockey 101.