Contract Prediction

[35years]

That awful optimistic inflation. Eventually inflation and all that free money is gonna hit hard.

I don't disagree.
I just used the current inflation #s put out by the government.
The point was not to forecast the inflation rate, but to illustrate that even when assuming a low inflation rate, $.85 annual raises for 10 years would not keep up.

Inflation has been rising for the last 4 years, with no reason to think it will not continue to rise.

Even with a conservative 3% inflation projection, we would need to average more than $1.00 raises each year to keep up with inflation for a 5 year deal... $1.60 average annual raises at 4% inflation.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

First you say 75 then 85


The math is not quite that simple.
Each year you build off of the raise from the prior year.
Kind of like compound interest...
So $.85 a year for 5 years would be OK ; but for 10 years not so much.

Here is an online calculator
Best Inflation Calculator (2018) - Historical & Future Value | SmartAsset.com

Use 2017 as your starting year because otherwise we get no raise for 2018 in the calculation.
$36.90 is worth $46.51 in 2028 at 2.1% inflation.

Bro, I used the formula for simple compounding principal.

36.9 * 1.021^10

principal * rate ^ (time in years)

 

[Brownslave688]

So looks like about 1/4 of the people thing the national actually passes. Wow

 

[1989NW]

My prediction is that the company will be adding GPS to the diads in all of the centers, getting rid of all the stick shifts, and purchasing more package cars so that they can add more routes to be able to have low volume on each route so that anyone can handle the routes. They have already started doing all three of these things at my center. They will do all of this to be able to replace us easily when we go on strike. The company wants us to go on strike so that they can replace all of us right away. Hoffa will be paid off and he will go dancing off into the sunset and UPS will no longer be a Union company.

 

[twoweeled]

.......

That's a real old bike in your avatar. 1970ish? Do you know what it is? Those were the days of 4" suspension. Not this woosy 12" travel they have now!

 

[twoweeled]

Just extend this contract 10 more years. 75 cents a year raise. I can dig it.

That's exactly why we get the crap we do! Because they have taught us to be satisfied with less. Don't worry, that's exactly what we're going to get - LESS!!

 

[twoweeled]

$36.19 an hour is $46.33 in 10 years at 2.5% inflation.$1 per year

$36.19 with your $.75 raises is $43.69....1.9%

$44.55 using 2.1% inflation. I think that is fair.

First raise on Aug 1 2018 not 2019. And No split raises.

It appears that in 10 years you'd need to make $46.33 just to keep the buying power you have today. So $.75 per year for 10 years puts you at $43.69.
It appears, you have NOT only received any raise, but you have lost $.86 cents in 10 years. Don't go bragging to your neighbors about that screwing your taking. I'm sure upper management will be having a good laugh at that raise you think your getting, and with good reason.

 

[twoweeled]

i predict it will make no sense for anyone involved

NO doubt you are correct. And it will still be voted in!! Explain that one.

 

[twoweeled]

I don't know about smart, but they are well compensated for (in my opinion) ruining this company...

UPS Inc. increased the total compensation package for its Chief Executive Officer, David Abney, by 21 percent in 2016, according to the company’s latest filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Overall, Abney’s compensation for the year grew to $13.7 million, including a 10 percent base salary bump to $1.1 million and stock option awards of $10.2 million.
The increase comes after UPS upped Abney’s pay by 35 percent in 2015 and nearly 105 percent in 2014.
UPS ups CEO compensation again in 2016 | News | American Shipper

Are you implying we'd be stupid to accept a 2% raise with a couple of benefits lost in exchange along with it? Why should things change now?

 

[twoweeled]

As much sense as...... screwing the UPS aircraft mechanics for years
and.......................... screwing the UPS pilots union by mismanaging and renting 3rd party cargo jets
and.......................... forcing Saturdays on package drivers and raising the HOS to 70 hours during peak (TO COVER MISMANAGEMENT)
and.......................... pre-ordering Tesla tractors when the costs and maintenance costs are astronomical
and.......................... using Trump's tax handout on themselves and coming to the bargaining table empty handed

Sounds like the "smart ones" aren't too smart !!!

I don't know. Compare their raise, to the raise we're gonna get - They certainly don't look very stupid.

 

[twoweeled]

That’s why many here are quick to strike over just 1 or 2 minor issues. They don’t care that some might be out of a job.

Much deeper than that Bro. Way way deeper than that. We kept on giving a little more and more and more and more. Now look where we're at. I think we used to get 75 cent raises before we were making $10 an hour 40 year+ years ago. Look at us now. We keep giving and giving and this is what happens. Eventually we gotta make a stand against the bully, or just continue to get beat up.
They way it looks now, the beatings are going to continue. We need some orange jumpsuits.

 

[Brownslave688]

My prediction is that the company will be adding GPS to the diads in all of the centers, getting rid of all the stick shifts, and purchasing more package cars so that they can add more routes to be able to have low volume on each route so that anyone can handle the routes. They have already started doing all three of these things at my center. They will do all of this to be able to replace us easily when we go on strike. The company wants us to go on strike so that they can replace all of us right away. Hoffa will be paid off and he will go dancing off into the sunset and UPS will no longer be a Union company.

Riiiiiiiiight

 

[old levi's]

My prediction is that the company will be adding GPS to the diads in all of the centers, getting rid of all the stick shifts, and purchasing more package cars so that they can add more routes to be able to have low volume on each route so that anyone can handle the routes. They have already started doing all three of these things at my center. They will do all of this to be able to replace us easily when we go on strike. The company wants us to go on strike so that they can replace all of us right away. Hoffa will be paid off and he will go dancing off into the sunset and UPS will no longer be a Union company.

can you train a monkey to comprehend GPS, and still put off 20 SPORH?

 

[Non sequitur]

My prediction is that the company will be adding GPS to the diads in all of the centers, getting rid of all the stick shifts, and purchasing more package cars so that they can add more routes to be able to have low volume on each route so that anyone can handle the routes. They have already started doing all three of these things at my center. They will do all of this to be able to replace us easily when we go on strike. The company wants us to go on strike so that they can replace all of us right away. Hoffa will be paid off and he will go dancing off into the sunset and UPS will no longer be a Union company.

Talked to a DHL driver today. They are at $30/hr with $1 yearly raises for 5 years. Progression is 3 years at DHL. Also, DHL is hiring drivers in bunches.

 

[twoweeled]

can you train a monkey to comprehend GPS, and still put off 20 SPORH?

I also believe that was part of why the company instituted many of those changes. I don't believe they want us to go on strike, but the GPS and auto will help newbys if there is one. BUT!! The majority of buildings would need a lot more cars in to lower the workload per driver. I don't think the majority of building could deal with many more cars. That's one of the weak links. Even with the trailers out in the yard, with cars being loaded in them. I don't think they could pull it off smoothly.

 

[twoweeled]

Talked to a DHL driver today. They are at $30/hr with $1 yearly raises for 5 years. Progression is 3 years at DHL. Also, DHL is hiring drivers in bunches.

We are not the relatively high paid drivers, we once were. It's our own fault!! That's what we get!

 

[old levi's]

I also believe that was part of why the company instituted many of those changes. I don't believe they want us to go on strike, but the GPS and auto will help newbys if there is one. BUT!! The majority of buildings would need a lot more cars in to lower the workload per driver. I don't think the majority of building could deal with many more cars. That's one of the weak links. Even with the trailers out in the yard, with cars being loaded in them. I don't think they could pull it off smoothly.

the fail, is finding people that will work at the same level as current drivers

 

[eats packages]

I also believe that was part of why the company instituted many of those changes. I don't believe they want us to go on strike, but the GPS and auto will help newbys if there is one. BUT!! The majority of buildings would need a lot more cars in to lower the workload per driver. I don't think the majority of building could deal with many more cars. That's one of the weak links. Even with the trailers out in the yard, with cars being loaded in them. I don't think they could pull it off smoothly.

the solution to adding more cars is to pull out the rollers and park down the center asile. We had preload wrapping past 9:30 last they tried that.

 

[IVE GOTTA PACKAGE 4U]

the solution to adding more cars is to pull out the ancient rollers and park down the center asile. We had preload wrapping past 9:30 last they tried that.

Peak!!

 

[brownelf]

That's a real old bike in your avatar. 1970ish? Do you know what it is? Those were the days of 4" suspension. Not this woosy 12" travel they have now!

Looks like a late 60's Greeves, old British MX bike w/ leading link suspension. I raced a Montesa 125 back then.