Dangerous territory

O

OLDMAN3

Guest
Anyone else here feel we are overdue not only for a market correction but a severe bear market?
A strong case can be made for S & P 1000 or possibly 500 ...

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Regression-to-Trend.php

SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend.gif

The peak in 2000 marked an unprecedented 149% overshooting of the trend — nearly double the overshoot in 1929. The index had been above trend for two decades, with one exception: it dipped about 12% below trend briefly in March of 2009. But at the beginning of July 2014, it is 84% above trend, up from 79% above trend the month before. In sharp contrast, the major troughs of the past saw declines in excess of 50% below the trend. If the current S&P 500 were sitting squarely on the regression, it would be around the 1057 level. If the index should decline over the next few years to a level comparable to previous major bottoms, it would fall to the vicinity of 500.
Click to expand...
 
O

OLDMAN3

Guest
I have been in the market since 1986. This market feels like 2000 and 2008 but worse. I am taking ALL my money out. I personally believe we are going to witness a crash greater than 1929. I have been Bullish for decades (until this year).
 
upschuck

upschuck

Well-Known Member
I've got enough time to wait out any down market. Not worried. As you can readily see, the trend is to rise despite to downturns.
 
O

OLDMAN3

Guest
I cant take 15 to 20 years of a major Bear market. We are in nosebleed territory. The 1929 crash and resulting great depression crushed my family. Prudence is called for when greed is rampant. Good luck to you all.
 
O

OLDMAN3

Guest
upschuck said:
How old are you? You must be TC who seems not to want to retire. :funny:
Click to expand...
My great grandpa was a banker in 1929. My mom and dad lived through the great depression and had some stories to tell. What is TC?
And no, I am not giving up my cush route soon!:biggrin:
 
Brownslave688

Brownslave688

You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
MORION said:
I cant take 15 to 20 years of a major Bear market. We are in nosebleed territory. The 1929 crash and resulting great depression crushed my family. Prudence is called for when greed is rampant. Good luck to you all.
Click to expand...
We are not in nose bleed territory. Look up P/E ratios. Do I think we are due for a correction yes. Do I see a complete crash no way.

The market is near the top of its historical P/E ratio but here's the thing. Earnings are forecast to go up 7-12% next year. That means the market could go up the same amount and be no more inflated than it is today.
 
IVE GOTTA PACKAGE 4U

IVE GOTTA PACKAGE 4U

*
Brownslave688 said:
We are not in nose bleed territory. Look up P/E ratios. Do I think we are due for a correction yes. Do I see a complete crash no way.

The market is near the top of its historical P/E ratio but here's the thing. Earnings are forecast to go up 7-12% next year. That means the market could go up the same amount and be no more inflated than it is today.
Click to expand...
The market will go up! the dollar no!

Best bet,pay your bills off.
Best debt is,no debt.

A few bucks in your pocket,and no debt.
Is worth more than a big paper statement,and no cash!

Do not live,beyond your means!
 
Griff

Griff

Well-Known Member
The bull market will end the moment QE ends. The whole thing will shift upside down faster than you can click sell.

Anybody who thinks the whole market run-up since 2008 is because of a "recovering economy" needs their head examined and should probably stop watching the news.


Sent using BrownCafe App
 

Similar threads

cheryl
S&P upgrades UPS, says company set new bar for package delivery volumes
Replies
1
Views
2K
IVE GOTTA PACKAGE 4U
IVE GOTTA PACKAGE 4U
728ups
Dow Closes Above 17,000 as Stock Rally Outpaces Economy
5 6 7
Replies
124
Views
12K
wkmac
wkmac
P
Citigroup Still Loves UPS
Replies
5
Views
3K
proups
P
Top