Future Speculation

[Star B]

Yep, because clinging to what they know... the past..... is what kept them voting R. They were sold on the past.

The past is... the past. Coals never coming back like it was. These people would be better served if they swallowed that reality and moved on.

 

[vantexan]

Yep, because clinging to what they know... the past..... is what kept them voting R. They were sold on the past.

The past is... the past. Coals never coming back like it was. These people would be better served if they swallowed that reality and moved on.

All Democrat States. And if China needs our coal it'll provide those jobs.

 

[Meat]

Yep, because clinging to what they know... the past..... is what kept them voting R. They were sold on the past.

The past is... the past. Coals never coming back like it was. These people would be better served if they swallowed that reality and moved on.

Exactly - not everyone gets to stay in their home town or even home state. If there are no jobs, it's time to move on.

 

[bacha29]

All dead end jobs. Coal is a dead man walking as it should be. It's the dirtiest form of energy that we have come up with. It should die. The country won't miss all the great minds and innovators coming out of Appalachia.

I've spent my entire life living in coal country, the worst kind strip mining. I can tell you from first hand experience that mining for steam coal is finished. The easy stripping is gone and billions of dollars of raw material wealth have been hauled out of here and nothing put back leaving tens of thousands of acres of worthless back filled strip mined ground with the water table destroyed. Environmental regulation did not kill the coal business electric utility deregulation killed it. Take a look at the forward looking statements of US electric utilities and they'll all tell you that the odds of a new coal fired plant being built in the US are basically zero. Nat gas plants can be built quickly. cheaply where the grid wants them built and operate cleanly and efficiently. Construction of a new nat gas plant in the adjoining county has just begun. It will be done in less than two years and employ the grand sum of 14 people when completed. That's half the time to build and require less than one tenth the number of people to operate as compared to a coal plant. Even the nukes are having a hard time competing in today's deregulated electric utility market A pair of nukes by Lake Erie are going to be shut down if the operator can't find a buyer . Likewise, Exelon will shut down the two remaining nukes at Three Mile Island in 2019 because it failed to gain supply contracts when PJM (the grid) put them out for bid for the deregulated market. Trump's promise of a revitalized coal industry was part of a line of BS any person with an IQ above 75 knew it was a lie because they knew that the utilities conversion to new technologies and cleaner burning fuels was already well under way and there is no turning back. I don't claim to be an industry expert but I've owned and traded electric utility stocks since 1978.

 

[vantexan]

I've spent my entire life living in coal country, the worst kind strip mining. I can tell you from first hand experience that mining for steam coal is finished. The easy stripping is gone and billions of dollars of raw material wealth have been hauled out of here and nothing put back leaving tens of thousands of acres of worthless back filled strip mined ground with the water table destroyed. Environmental regulation did not kill the coal business electric utility deregulation killed it. Take a look at the forward looking statements of US electric utilities and they'll all tell you that the odds of a new coal fired plant being built in the US are basically zero. Nat gas plants can be built quickly. cheaply where the grid wants them built and operate cleanly and efficiently. Construction of a new nat gas plant in the adjoining county has just begun. It will be done in less than two years and employ the grand sum of 14 people when completed. That's half the time to build and require less than one tenth the number of people to operate as compared to a coal plant. Even the nukes are having a hard time competing in today's deregulated electric utility market A pair of nukes by Lake Erie are going to be shut down if the operator can't find a buyer . Likewise, Exelon will shut down the two remaining nukes at Three Mile Island in 2019 because it failed to gain supply contracts when PJM (the grid) put them out for bid for the deregulated market. Trump's promise of a revitalized coal industry was part of a line of BS any person with an IQ above 75 knew it was a lie because they knew that the utilities conversion to new technologies and cleaner burning fuels was already well under way and there is no turning back. I don't claim to be an industry expert but I've owned and traded electric utility stocks since 1978.

And yet coal plants still produce 30% of our electricity, there's plenty of coal out there, and China can become a major customer.

 

[bacha29]

And yet coal plants still produce 30% of our electricity, there's plenty of coal out there, and China can become a major customer.

Just a couple of weeks ago China announced the cancellation of 100 coal fired power plants that were scheduled for construction in the coming years. Same thing too dirty, too expensive to operate. Much of that 30% coal generation you speak of is in the regulated markets but 9 of the 14 states under PJM's management are deregulated markets and the rest are expected to dereg soon.. Keep in mind projections are for oil to stabilize at $50 over the next 10 years and in the near term could drop into the 30's Nat gas is in the $3 range a fraction of what it once was and industry experts are expecting 1 billion cubic feet of new gas to come onto the market next year. That's 1 billion cubic feet per day. Oh yes there's coal out there but remember the easiest stuff to get to was pulled out decades ago.

 

[vantexan]

Just a couple of weeks ago China announced the cancellation of 100 coal fired power plants that were scheduled for construction in the coming years. Same thing too dirty, too expensive to operate. Much of that 30% coal generation you speak of is in the regulated markets but 9 of the 14 states under PJM's management are deregulated markets and the rest are expected to dereg soon.. Keep in mind projections are for oil to stabilize at $50 over the next 10 years and in the near term could drop into the 30's Nat gas is in the $3 range a fraction of what it once was and industry experts are expecting 1 billion cubic feet of new gas to come onto the market next year. That's 1 billion cubic feet per day. Oh yes there's coal out there but remember the easiest stuff to get to was pulled out decades ago.

But China has already built hundreds of them. They have to get the coal from somewhere. If we don't want it ship it to where they do.

 

[MAKAVELI]

But China has already built hundreds of them. They have to get the coal from somewhere. If we don't want it ship it to where they do.

China saving the coal industry is pipe dreams Van. Why not focus on the future and bringing newer, cleaner technologies to these areas that relied on coal jobs?

 

[vantexan]

China saving the coal industry is pipe dreams Van. Why not focus on the future and bringing newer, cleaner technologies to these areas that relied on coal jobs?

If they can, great. No one should have to rely on a job that's probably going to kill them at some point. But the reason coal mining is so prominent in that area is there has never been a real option to do anything else. What are they going to do, make solar panels? Cheaper in China. The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of Coal. But hey, if someone wants to build plants that can turn coal oil into diesel fuel that might be an option, if it's economically viable.

 

[bbsam]

As near as I can tell, the FedEx section of the BC is a place where front-line employees express their concerns (well, sometimes they just whine, but I digress) about their professional well being. Taking that into consideration, why would upper-management ever join the BC?

Why? To get a good laugh.

 

[Meat]

If they can, great. No one should have to rely on a job that's probably going to kill them at some point. But the reason coal mining is so prominent in that area is there has never been a real option to do anything else. What are they going to do, make solar panels? Cheaper in China. The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of Coal. But hey, if someone wants to build plants that can turn coal oil into diesel fuel that might be an option, if it's economically viable.

Key indicators suggest that coal will continue its decline as a viable job creator. For instance, your insistence that it has a future. From what I have seen, you're generally wrong about everything! In fact, I've taken to calling you "the oracle." - you make a prediction, and the opposite happens. Any favorites to win the Super Bowl this year?

 

[bbsam]

Key indicators suggest that coal will continue its decline as a viable job creator. For instance, your insistence that it has a future. From what I have seen, you're generally wrong about everything! In fact, I've taken to calling you "the oracle." - you make a prediction, and the opposite happens. Any favorites to win the Super Bowl this year?

Chicago Bears by 28 points.

 

[Meat]

Chicago Bears by 28 points.

What would the opposite be? Green Bay in a nail biter?

 

[bbsam]

What would the opposite be? Green Bay in a nail biter?

Opposite and far more likely.

 

[Serf]

Don't worry about your marginal retirement prospects; the system will implode prior to 2040, so no worries there.

In all actuality you are probably correct. Expect a buy out somewhere along the way.

 

[Serf]

I suspect that there will be a centralized location for management. Every morning employees will gather around a monitor for the meeting. No promotion from within, all managers hired off the street. A team leader will arrive early to get doors open, start sort. Any questions local CSA can't answer will be relayed to management headquarters. Costs related to managers being sued for harassment, sexual or otherwise, will be eliminated. No more SFA's. Any employees violating rules will be immediately terminated as there's a huge pool of applicants hoping to get hired. 4 weeks of vacation max. Only a 401k. HR is strictly automated online, and a survey will ask if they addressed your concerns. Computer will release a scent designed to leave you with a warm, fuzzy feeling.

I believe all of this.

 

[Serf]

By 2040, maybe even 2030, there won't be any human drivers, loaders, sorters. Robotics and AI are advancing far faster than most people realize. There are so many ways around the need for drivers when all the 'personnel' at delivery locations are robotic as well. For any situation you could hypothesize that might require a human, a workaround with AI could be figured. If nothing else, in particular situations, a 'remote' operator could operate the robot and communicate via a screen to solve any problem.

Robots will be so cheap that hiring people to do anything 'manual' would be a violation of a corporations duty to the stockholders to maximize ROI, unless laws are changed to protect jobs.

It is inevitable. The only silver lining is that most of us may make it to the end before it totally takes over. Otherwise, buyout for pathetic pittance of sheckles and relocation to hole in the wall spot.

 

[vantexan]

Key indicators suggest that coal will continue its decline as a viable job creator. For instance, your insistence that it has a future. From what I have seen, you're generally wrong about everything! In fact, I've taken to calling you "the oracle." - you make a prediction, and the opposite happens. Any favorites to win the Super Bowl this year?

Predicted Trump would beat Hillary. Still smarting over that one, huh?

 

[Wally]

I thought this was a @Future thread?

 

[vantexan]

It is inevitable. The only silver lining is that most of us may make it to the end before it totally takes over. Otherwise, buyout for pathetic pittance of sheckles and relocation to hole in the wall spot.

Google Kami and the Rest of the World Batumi. That's the kind of life you can have for less than half of the U.S..