Polling Methodologies Insight

Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage

While the majority of the polls suggest that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading, or at best that it’s close,
those polls suffer from at least three problems.
  • First, the tone of the questions.
  • Second, the sample of respondents.
  • Third, the content of the current news cycle.
Admittedly, no poll is perfect. That’s why RealClearPolitics takes a step forward by “averaging out” these errors across polls. But “averaging out” only works when errors are made in both directions. Here, many polls make errors primarily in one direction, so the average will still reflect some of the biases that exist.

Gallup conducted a recent survey finding that 56 percent of respondents report that they are better off than they were four years ago, which is striking given that we are in the midst of a pandemic with a recovering labor market and deepening political polarization.

Moreover, if we look at voter registration in Pennsylvania, we see a similar pattern. There were 803,427 more registered Democrats than Republicans as of May, but that gap has narrowed to 700,853 as of October. In fact, Republicans have netted seven times as many registered Republican voters than Democrats since 2016. Similar trends are taking place in North Carolina and Florida.

We don’t pretend to have all the answers, but we do have some of the right questions. How are people actually feeling? Surveys are great when respondents know what they’re answering and when the sample is representative, but surveys can be misleading otherwise.
 

sailfish

Master of Karate and Friendship for Everyone
People from Canada voted in the Trump vs Biden poll on here. Shows how useless it is to look at pre-election polls for valid insight.
 

Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage
Note from OMJ ... Trafalgar Groups polling correctly predicted Trump's victory in 2016 whilst the other polls predicted a Clinton victory.


Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.

Trafalgar Group's polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.

“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.
 

Box Ox

Well-Known Member
“We predict that President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election — and win big.”

I’m bracing for a screaming Trump inauguration woman x 1,000,000 level of hard leftist butthurt just in case.
 

DriveInDriveOut

Inordinately Right
“We predict that President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election — and win big.”

I’m bracing for a screaming Trump inauguration woman x 1,000,000 level of hard leftist butthurt just in case.
I don't see President Trump winning at this point, but I'll tell you one thing.... If it looks like a Trump win on election night, every liberal outlet is gonna refuse to call it and insist we wait on mail in ballots and court challenges.
 

Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage
I don't see President Trump winning at this point, but I'll tell you one thing.... If it looks like a Trump win on election night, every liberal outlet is gonna refuse to call it and insist we wait on mail in ballots and court challenges.
And if Biden wins, Trump's legal team is gonna refuse to call it and insist we wait on mail in ballots and court challenges.
 

Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage
I don't see President Trump winning at this point, but I'll tell you one thing.... If it looks like a Trump win on election night, every liberal outlet is gonna refuse to call it and insist we wait on mail in ballots and court challenges.
And if Biden wins, Trump's legal team is gonna refuse to call it and insist we wait on mail in ballots and court challenges.
And the liberal media will call it for Biden and claim Trump is trying to cheat democracy.
Damn! We spoiled next week for everybody!
 

Babagounj

Strength through joy
I go by who draws the biggest crowds.
Anyone who will stand for hours just to wait to hear someone speak , will want to make sure their vote counts.
 

Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage

Conducted 10/24/20 - 10/25/20
• 1082 Respondents
• Likely 2020 General Election Voters
• Response Rate: 1.44%
Margin of Error: 2.89%
• Confidence: 95%
• Response Distribution: 50%
• Methodology: TheTrafalgarGroup.org/Polling-Methodology

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Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage
Trafalgar Group and InsiderAdvantage are the two pollsters I have been following.
They were on Hannity Tuesday night ... it has to be somebody special for me to watch Hannity.
There is a video of Robert Cahaly and Matt Towery, in the link, explaining their approach and predictions for 2020.


Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly and InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery, two pollsters that correctly predicted the 2016 election result, appeared on "Hannity" Tuesday night (October 27, 2020) to weigh in on the state of the 2020 election.

"Major pollsters are missing President Donald Trump’s true voting strengths and he predicts the national African-American turnout for the president could be around 15 percent. That would be a record for a modern Republican presidential candidate," InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery said.

"Donald Trump is the most dynamic presidential candidate of my lifetime. I’ve never seen anything like it," Towery said. "Him personally going to these locations and drawing people out, particularly in the semi-rural and rural areas where they need to pile those votes up, that’s going to come back home in a big way to Donald Trump on Election Night and I don’t think these polls are picking that up."

Towery also said he is seeing a shift with voters aged 30-44 from Biden to Trump as talk of another lockdown ramps us.

"I really believe that has something to do with the dichotomy between what Trump is saying, which is we’re going to keep this country open and moving and Biden alluding to the fact we may have another shutdown," he said.

Cahaly said North Carolina will be "very tight," races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin "are very close" and "the margin of error is very tight." The pollster also said he is "very concerned about voter fraud, especially in Pennsylvania."
 

burrheadd

KING Of GIFS
Trafalgar Group and InsiderAdvantage are the two pollsters I have been following.
They were on Hannity Tuesday night ... it has to be somebody special for me to watch Hannity.
There is a video of Robert Cahaly and Matt Towery, in the link, explaining their approach and predictions for 2020.



You back on the weed
Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly and InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery, two pollsters that correctly predicted the 2016 election result, appeared on "Hannity" Tuesday night (October 27, 2020) to weigh in on the state of the 2020 election.

"Major pollsters are missing President Donald Trump’s true voting strengths and he predicts the national African-American turnout for the president could be around 15 percent. That would be a record for a modern Republican presidential candidate," InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery said.

"Donald Trump is the most dynamic presidential candidate of my lifetime. I’ve never seen anything like it," Towery said. "Him personally going to these locations and drawing people out, particularly in the semi-rural and rural areas where they need to pile those votes up, that’s going to come back home in a big way to Donald Trump on Election Night and I don’t think these polls are picking that up."

Towery also said he is seeing a shift with voters aged 30-44 from Biden to Trump as talk of another lockdown ramps us.

"I really believe that has something to do with the dichotomy between what Trump is saying, which is we’re going to keep this country open and moving and Biden alluding to the fact we may have another shutdown," he said.

Cahaly said North Carolina will be "very tight," races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin "are very close" and "the margin of error is very tight." The pollster also said he is "very concerned about voter fraud, especially in Pennsylvania."
 
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