Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Char, Jan 4, 2008.

  1. Char

    Char New Member

    I been off the forums for a while however, I have been monitoring them. Here is the breakdown of the candidates up until Iowa.

    Hillary Clinton has been knocked off her pedistal. The myth off her inevitability has been shattered as well as the myth that women will vote for in droves. Don't get me wrong, I still think she will get the nomination, but Obama is a real threat, and if she does get it, she will be bloodied and beaten in the end.

    John Edwards is finished. If he is too have any real influence in this election he should drop out some time soon and toss his support to Obama as Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich have. It is clear that the Democrat establishment does not want Hillary to get the nomination.

    As I said, Obama is a real threat. In 2004, we all heard how young people will turn out to defeat Bush but as in the past, young people proved once again in 2004, they cannot be counted on to show up. Obama has made headway with young people and women.

    This race is between Clinton and Obama. Clinton Inc can't do what they normally do to their opponents in a campaign. Their attacks on Obama backfired. Obama has female and young people support and can get them to the polls. Clintons support has peaked and can only go down. People who are voting for have already decided on her and those who do not support her probably never will. People used to say they are turned off by negative campaigns but they usually work. For the first time, negativity may backfire, and this may put Clinton at a real disadvantage if it holds true. It won't work against Obama.

    John McCain has risen from the dead and may be viable. Unfortunately for him, the only real connection he has to the Republican base is his desire for victory in Iraq. Other than that, he has alienated himself on alot of issues so I don't think he has a real shot.

    Rudy Guilliani may be finished. I just don't think the base will turn out for him in the primary. If Iowa has shown anything, it is that the Christian Right seems to leaning toward "one of their own". New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and 9/11 are not enough to pull out a primary win.

    Mitt Romney is gonna have a hard time. If McCain wins New Hampshire, his only shot of staying in is in Nevada and Michigan. He has to win something early to stay in. Being a Mormon is gonna make it tough, as well as he may appear to be too polished and not authentic.

    Fred Thompson I just don't think will cut it.

    Ron Paul is a unique candidate and I understand his appeal. Of all the candidates that talk about limiting the size and scope of government, and adhering to the Constitution, Ron Paul is probably the only one that really means it and would work towards it. His foreign policy in the matter of national security is just insane. Philosophically, I can see his point on Iraq and non-intervention, however it is just too dangerous of a world to stand by a watch others destabalize and get dictators entranched. Alot less isolationism would help. He might be a real contender if it wasn't for this.

    Mike Huckabee has locked himself in as a real contender with his 9 point victory in Iowa. The Christian Right seems to be on board with him. If this is proven to be factual, he may have the nomination locked up. He may be devastating in the South and Midwest. I believe he is counting on the other candidates to beat Romney in enough states to eliminate him as a threat.

    On the Republican side, it is a 4-way race and is up for grabs. There are 3 parts to the conservative coalition: social, national defense, and economic. The social conservatives want Romney or Huckabee. The economic wants Guilliani or Romney. The national defense wants McCain or Guilliani. Social conservatives are the biggest slice or at least have more influence over the other two. This gives the advantage to Huckabee as McCain and Guilliani may beat Romney in enough places while Huckabee is capable of beating in other places.

  2. moreluck

    moreluck golden ticket member

    I get the impression that all of those "quiet" people who let others try to take away Christmas and prayer in schools etc. are silently going to be casting their voice in the form of votes for Huckabee.

    With no major faux paux, he should do well in the south. I like the fact that really big money didn't beat Huckabee.
  3. wkmac

    wkmac Well-Known Member

    Very good post there Char. I guess I'm more surprised on the Repub. side with Huck's showing than anything else. For so long all we seemed to hear was Rudy and Romney and Huckee came out of no where so to speak and stole their thunder in Iowa.

    NH however is a whole different animal so that'll have to wait and see. I'd expect Huck to have a tougher road and Mitt and Rudy a bit of upperhand since they are neighborhood boys so to speak. You'd think Fred Thompson might do well here also but Fred puzzles me. I thought he'd be a top dog but it just hasn't happened yet.

    Both Iowa and NH are really not to meaningful IMO and no disrespect to those folks but the real clear picture will come after Fed 5th and Super Tuesday. I think then the race on both sides will then really narrow up quite a bit to at best 2 people. On the dem. side, one of the 3 amigos (Hill, Obamy or Johnny) will go home for good and on the repub. side we'll get a much clearer picture of whether Huckee is for real, Rudy and Mitt climb back to the front, McCain shows muscle or Fred finally becomes what many thought and begin his stretch run. And lingering in the shadows posed to play the unknown hand of cards is Ron Paul. Is he the 5% at best the so-called experts say he is or is he the dark shadow waiting to turn over the repub. apple cart.

    I happen to be on vacation during Super Tuesday so it'll be fun to watch the media as the day's results unfold.

    Speaking of Huckee, I did manage to listen to about an hour of Rush Limbaugh on my way to work early this afternoon and I had no idea he was no Huckee supporter at all. Seems these 2 have a bit of quiet war going on under the surface. I just tuned in to see what Rush might say about what he calls the Hawkeye Cawkeye (I like that) but I'm curious, do any of you regular listeners know if Rush has crowned his champion yet or not? Just curious. How about Hannity or Savage? Have they said where they are at?

    Thanks ahead if you can tell me!

    I'm not convinced yet that Newt won't ride in on White Stallion to save the day! Having seen this guy up close for 30 plus years in politics, that scenario fits him to a tee.
  4. Char

    Char New Member

    I would agree on its face that Iowa and NH are not all that important except that at least Iowa shows that people are going to turn out. It also shows that young people may get in this thing. It also shows that Hillary does not have the female vote locked in. It also shows that social conservatives are going to go for Huckabee. NH will be different. They will vote on economic, tax, and limiting government issues as they are in the northeast and social issues are not as important to them. They will go for Romney, Guilliani, or McCain. I don't see Huckabee doing well here.

    Hannity, Rush, and Savage have not made public their choice. Hannity probably wants Guilliani, Rush wants Thompson or Romney I think, and I would bet Savage doesn't like anyone of them.

    Newt won't get in. He won't give up American Solutions and he can't use that money.

  5. Jones

    Jones fILE A GRIEVE! Staff Member

    As near as I can tell, many establishment republican pundits (Coulter, Limbaugh, etc) seem to loathe Huckabee. He's the bumpkin who they need on election day, but outside of that they don't want him around:

    Two-Buck Huck
  6. traveler

    traveler Where next? Venice


    From the Sunday Orlando Sentinel... Quite appropriate.
  7. diesel96

    diesel96 New Member

    I love it !......This picture speaks a thousand words.

    From the News media to Talk Show Host to the average Joe, we all are armchair political quarterbacks making our case as to who's number one like in the NCAA College Football polls. Iowa was only the first scrimage game of the year, and naturally people are makng assumptions of who's going to the BCS Bowl at the end of the year. I think I will kick back and watch the season unfold, especially with the big boy states yet to test the political waters before I open up my mouth and say something stupid. Unfortunately people have a tendencey to switch or jump on the winning bandwagon as events unfold. In my case, as well as many others, my canidate (Biden) has thrown in the towel, so now is an important time for canidates to recruit voters in limbo. I guess I"m saying everyone has the right to state your case who's number one and why, but keep in mind it's just opinions and predictions and don't be swayed by the media, radio, or bloggers until the fat lady sings and number one plays number two for the right to reside at 1600 Pennsylvania ave.
  8. traveler

    traveler Where next? Venice

    In reference to that statement, I was listening to a bit of "Meet the Press" this morning and their pundits have just about written off Hillary as the nominee if Obama wins New Hampshire. (Which is quite likely). On the Republican side they concluded that Huckabee will be just about finished after New Hampshire and McCain will be looking good as a possible nominee. Wow, has that changed in just a few short weeks.
  9. moreluck

    moreluck golden ticket member

    Famous Presidential Lies Contest


    We were attacked (in the Gulf of Tonkin )


    • I am not a crook
    GHW Bush:

    • Read my lips - No New Taxes

    • I did not have sex with that woman... Miss Lewinski
    GW Bush:

    • Iraq has weapons of mass destruction

    • I will have the most transparent administration in history.
    • The stimulus will fund shovel-ready jobs.
    • I am focused like a laser on creating jobs.
    • The IRS is not targeting anyone.
    • It was a spontaneous riot about a movie.
    • I will put an end to the type of politics that "breeds division, conflict and cynicism".
    • You didn't build that!
    • I will restore trust in Government.
    • The Cambridge cops acted stupidly.
    • The public will have 5 days to look at every bill that lands on my desk
    • It's not my red line - it is the world's red line.
    • Whistle blowers will be protected in my administration.
    • We got back every dime we used to rescue the banks and auto companies, with interest.
    • I am not spying on American citizens.
    • Obama Care will be good for America ..
    • You can keep your family doctor.
    • Premiums will be lowered by $2500.
    • If you like it, you can keep your current healthcare plan.
    • It's just like shopping at Amazon.
    • I knew nothing about "Fast and Furious" gunrunning to Mexican drug cartels.
    • I knew nothing about IRS targeting conservative groups.
    • I knew nothing about what happened in Benghazi .
    • The attack in Benghazi was a result of a protest to a film about Islam
    • I have never known my uncle from Kenya who is in the country illegally and that was arrested and told to leave the country over 20 years ago.
    • And, I have never lived with that uncle. He finally admitted (12-05-2013) that he DID know his uncle and that he DID live with him.
    • ISIL (ISIS) is nothing but a j.v team.
    • If elected I promise not to renew the Patriot Act.
    • If elected I will end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan within the 1st 9 months of my term.
    • I will close Guantanamo within the first 6 months of my term.
    • I will bridge the gap between black and white and between America and other countries.
    And the biggest one of all:

    • "I, Barack Hussein Obama, pledge to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States of America ."
    • Winner Winner x 2
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    • List
  10. The Other Side

    The Other Side Well-Known Troll Troll

  11. realbrown1

    realbrown1 Annoy a liberal today. Hit them with facts.

    TOS must have violated the TOS.

    Never mind, he just posted in the OP's post.
  12. realbrown1

    realbrown1 Annoy a liberal today. Hit them with facts.

    OK TOS, what did Obama do that SAVED us all from the bad economy?

  13. Gumby

    Gumby *

    Gave out more foodstamps
  14. Baba gounj

    Baba gounj pensioner

    State of Maine reported that all people denied EBT cards due to the state's new rules actually saw an income increase .
  15. realbrown1

    realbrown1 Annoy a liberal today. Hit them with facts.

    I guess TOS can't name 1 thing Obama has done to help the economy.

    Maybe now he will admit, when it comes to helping America and Americans, Obama is an absentee President.
  16. Gumby

    Gumby *

    They reported drug money?
  17. Baba gounj

    Baba gounj pensioner

  18. Gumby

    Gumby *

    Hoes get retirement?
    You lucky....
  19. Baba gounj

    Baba gounj pensioner

    boat has been in for 3 weeks , caught 20 lobsters so far , getting a nice tan , listening every night to the traffic reports while I park along the seacoast and thinking how wonderful it is that I don't have to deal with that mess anymore .
  20. Baba gounj

    Baba gounj pensioner

    Come on TOS , you must be able to recall that obama has increased gun sales ever year he's been in office .
    It's been the most improving segment of the economy .
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