Stock Price

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rushfan

Guest
One cannot compare the airlines to ups. The airlines have always had problems. UPS management style and cost cutting measures are much better than the airline industry. We at ups seem to be more careful with our money. Their (the airline industry) problem stems from not controlling costs, having no direction etc. Many of the low cost carriers are doing quite well.Compairing the airline industry to ups is comparing apples to oranges.
Unlike many on this board who always think doomsday for ups, I feel ups has a good future...And I'm an hourly employee.
 
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wkmac

Guest
Very nicely said and dead-on proups. You get a big from me. The way the street reacted you would think we're about to report a loss rather than several cents shy of an earning position. This over reaction also reflects the problem that investing in America is no longer done using sound principles but rather a lottery ticket mentality. I wonder sometimes if we don't have a few of those very same folks among us and the worse part that scares me is those folks are the one's who make many decisions that effect all of us and present what we are to "The Street". JMO.

BTW: UPS has a current PE of 26 and FDX is around 21. Folks we just got ahead of ourselves. No doubt it was nice but truth hurts!

(Message edited by wkmac on January 14, 2005)
 
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rd0127

Guest
My husband and I have a conspriracy theory.

UPS is buying back shares. We feel like they are driving the cost of the shares down so they can buy back at a lower price. After they have the shares back, then their overall outlook is going to go back up and so will the price of the stock.
 
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afups

Guest
"My husband and I have a conspriracy theory."

I don't think there is one. My friend in Dallas told me he has seen no one from UPS hanging around the grassy knoll and he checks it daily.

If we can believe that UPS would engage in a conspiracy to drive our price down, we should sell all our stock today and invest in Krispy Kreme or some other such company.

Have a great day.
 
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revenuerecovery

Guest
rd:

UPS recently stated they are prepared to do a $4billion buy back of stock. If they did that at once, it would instantly drive the price of the stock up. When companies do large buy backs, they do it in smaller amounts over the course of a few months or even a year. When all else is constant, a reduction in shares outstanding (like from a stock buy back) should raise the stock price to match the current market cap (market value of the firm)
 
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moreluck

Guest
I thnk UPS is in its infancy when it comes to putting a spin on their projections. They come right out and tell the boldest truth......other companies flower their language,so the stock doesn't take a beating.

Since UPS went public around '99, that would
make it a kindergartner compared to the likes of the other,more senior publicly traded companies.

I'm not saying to lie about anything, but there's both a neg. and a pos. way to make the identical statement.
 
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moreluck

Guest
Am I the only one who had to look up "hubris" ??

Hubris: exaggerated pride or self confidence.
 
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upsdawg

Guest
Regarding the comparison of UPS and the Airlines, I do believe that UPS does a good job of controlling cost-----however, if you continue to increase pay and benefits over a period of time----and allo of your competition does not have to-----and the competition is able to offer much, much lower rates to buy business----and UPS can't charge rates lower than our cost otherwise we are faced with Preditory Pricing and are subject to civil action---how long would it take for UPS to lose major market share----------so here is the question:

Why is Southwest, a non- union carrier, doing so well , while all of the other Union carriers have either gone out of business or are ready to file Chapter 11??

I definitely see some comparisons-----let's do everything we can do to keep our current customers and not give them a reason to go to our competitors!!
 
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ok2bclever

Guest
It is normal for a stock price to drop when the company doesn't match or exceed expectations for the quarter.

Especially when they have been on a roll.

The weird reasoning given didn't help.

If a company loses stock investor's trust it loses it's stock price.

Especially after the Enron, Global Crossing, Worldcom, etc integrity failures.

UPS does NOT want to do anything to cause the investors to doubt UPS's word.

While Southwest did make a profit, it was barely.

All the rest, union and non-union lost varying degrees of money.

So obviously union labor is not the inherent troubling factor to that industry.

Sorry all you union haters.

The industry is in trouble because there is far more supply than demand and the over-competition versus actual operating costs are setting prices.

In the small package industry, DHL is causing an increase to the "supply" versus the "demand" and their artificial low rates at an operational loss to force their way into increased market share is causing UPS to raise rates less.

Both of these will negatively effect UPS in the short term, but DHL still has to prove it can provide a good and consistent service or financial reality will balance the equation by eliminating them.

The sky isn't falling.

It's just raining.

Brace up buckos.
 
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ezrider

Guest
Deliverman, my girl walked in and needed my help right then and there so I had to fire off that last rant of mine quickly. I'm glad you understand it's intended meaning.

Moreluck, I think the only reason I remember the word is because I had to reach for the dictionary the first few times I had seen it in print. By no means am I the only driver that refers to the term when asked by management why someone that would bother to get a college degree would continue to deliver packages rather than put on the tie.

Tieguy, I think if any of my teachers were to look at any of these boards they would be stunned by the numerous spelling errors of many posters and myself included. They likely would figure that if all UPS people were as bad at math as they are at grammar, that it shouldn't be a surprise that the company couldn't come up with the number that Wall Street was looking for.

Proups, no doubt the driver is paid higher than that of the competitors. That's why many like myself get irritated when they see the same mistakes made over and over due to the refusal of management to acknowledge where the mistakes originate from in operations as opposed to where and when the mistakes encountered. I and every guy I work with wearing the browns am all for streamlining the process and I don't even want a cut of the cash saved from doing so.

I don't expect the people in Atlanta to get a slam dunk every trip down the floor. Even the best can make mistakes. But when they start making the same mistakes over and over, something on thier end needs to be changed before any cost-saving measures can ever stand any realistic chance of success. And that's not just the driver's take. I know many of the sups(whether current or former) feel the same way towards the big cats.

They also have spoken the word hubris when describing what it's like on the other side. Many regret going there. After listening to them describe the treatment from above, I can start to see why.
 
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tieguy

Guest
"Deliverman, my girl walked in and needed my help right then and there so I had to fire off that last rant of mine quickly."

Ahhh the story gets better.

Don't sell yourself short the wording was interesting.
 
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tieguy

Guest
Back to the topic.

I'm wondering if the 1.4 million packages sitting in Louky cost us more than we may realize. Our normal response would be no refund due to weather delay. However if some large shippers were upset their christmas packages did not arrive by Christmas then I wonder if we would have refunded to retain their good. will.

The other reason given was peak volume lighter then expected. We plan extra equipment rentals well in advance. Once we have it we are basically stuck. You can't look at the volume trends the first two weeks of december and make adjustments because we would be fighting past trends. The past two or three peaks we have seen a last minute rush that did not happen this time.
I am surprised to see volume given as a reason because we were clearly up in my part of the world.

Did anyone see any large shippers leave us that were prominent shippers last peak?
 
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ok2bclever

Guest
We had all supervisors working the whole peak and only had one day of bad weather which was in the last week of Christmas.

I have several drivers that thought enough was enough and filed supe working grievances, something rare at least here as there has always been an unwritten rule of "whatever it took" for Christmas.

But this year we were not allowed to hire even one driver and had days where they wouldn't put all the drivers on the road as drivers, but used ten or so as helpers to stay at the driver numbers the geniuses up above dictated again while all the supes worked as mentioned.

Think I'll quote that stock reason given of "peak volume lighter then expected" when labor tries to use the "exhausted all reasonable means" at the next grievance hearing?
 
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ezrider

Guest
Ahh the story gets better

Well I wouldn't go that far. A tv show she wanted to record was about to start and she wasn't sure if she had the VCR set up correctly.

That was the case here with the rentals. Lack of capacity did occur the previous year at peak and I'm sure they didn't want to see that situation again. This time I swear there was one that never moved for maybe an entire week. I think the bosses may have used the other to shuttle some stops here and there, but I don't think it ever hit the building line-up.
 
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my2cents

Guest
Once the company is able to pinpoint the reasons for the missed projection, they should publically state them, even if negative. This should help take the current uncertainty out of the stock price. No doubt the market will give greater scrutiny to future earnings projections. It appears the market views UPS as the bellweather stock of the Dow Jones Transportation Index and as one of the barometers of the overall domestic economy, as part of the GDP passes through the delivery network each day. Bad volume projections are currently being interpreted by the market as either unforeseen weakness in the general economy and/or as an erosion of market share to the competition. Either way, once bad data is exposed, the market will punish the stock. Furthermore, given the above, IMO, the stock will probably see increased volitility in the future. The days of the stock trading in a sideways pattern over the first few years of public life are probably over for the time being. It will be interesting to see how the downside breakaway gap on the stock price chart fills over time.
 
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moreluck

Guest
Subject: [retiredups] Analyst reports


NEW YORK, January 28 Analysts at Robert W Baird reiterate
their "outperform" rating on United Parcel Service (UPS.NYS). The target price
has been reduced from $94 to $89.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the
company reported its 4Q04 earnings in-line with its disappointing
pre-announcement. The company plans to aggressively reduce its expenses and accelerate its
middle-market sales initiatives this year, Robert W Baird says. The current
valuation of United Parcel Service's stock is attractive, the analysts believe.
******************************************************************************
************
NEW YORK, January 28 - Analysts at UBS reiterate their
"neutral" rating on UPS (UPS.NYS). The target price has been reduced from $92 to
$85.
******************************************************************************
**************
NEW YORK, January 28 - In a research note published
yesterday, analysts at Raymond James reiterate their "outperform" rating on United
Parcel Service (UPS.NYS), while reducing their estimates for the company. The
target price has been reduced to $78.00.
******************************************************************************
********************
NEW YORK, January 28 - In a research note published
yesterday, analysts at Morgan Keegan maintain their "market perform" rating on United
Parcel Service (UPS.NYS), while revising their estimates for the company
 
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wily_old_vet

Guest
Can someone please explain to me what they mean by saying "outperform" and the other phrases used by analysts?
 
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my2cents

Guest
The standard benchmark to beat or "outperform" the market is the S&P 500. "Market perform" means it should roughly track the progress of the S&P 500. "Neutral" means to watch the stock because of its current unsettled short-term outlook. These are my own definitions and not anything official.

Personally, I'd rather look at a price chart and make my own determinations. Unfortunately, the short-term trend for the stock is down and it looks weak on the chart. It appears the price of the stock will probably drift a bit until it finds a new price equilibrium. Once that level is found, buying opportunities should present themselves. Long term support should be found around the $70 level. JMHO.
 
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moreluck

Guest
Outperform
An analyst recommendation meaning a stock is expected to do slightly better than the market return.



Exact definitions vary by brokerage, but in general this rating is better than neutral and worse than buy or strong buy.

Also known as market outperform, moderate buy, or accumulate.
 
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moreluck

Guest
Wow, that was some recovery today. If we'd had another 15 or 20 mins. of market time, we'd have been positive.
 
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