How about some rampant speculation?

[Ricochet1a]

If you've already received Fred's July "From the Chairman", this may be old news to you. If you haven't, Fred makes a rather telling bit of "prophesy" regarding the imminent changes.

Quoting:

"...One business decision many of our customers have made is to trade speed for savings. Though that decision may be partly driven by the current economy, it's a mistake to think that it's temporary. (There is no "storm to ride out", this is the new normal) We have seen a steady shift from priority services to deferred (non-overnight Express) or from express services to ground, especially in the United States. This trend is likely to continue as many customers are recalilbrating their supply chain decisions. The good news for FedEx is that we have a full menu of services to offer and can keep this volume in our "family". ...

Cut Material

...Another good example is FedEx Ground. Over the past eight years, we have combined cutting-edge technologies and a passion for efficiency to reduce transit times by at least one full day in 69 percent of its continental U.S. transit times. FedEx Ground is now faster to more locations than any other ground carrier. And its service levels are at an all-time high. With that kind of dedication to efficiency, it's no wonder FedEx Ground has taken market share for 49 straight quarters...

And it is going to be getting even more market share shortly....

End Quote

In poker, this is what is known as a "tell".

It's good to know that everyone (those who work for Fred), is in the same "family" and will all prosper and be provided for out of the magnificence of Fred.

Cough, cough....

Another way I see the above excerpts, is that Fred has undone his trousers and is getting getting ready to take a dump on the Express Couriers...

Just look up and get what is coming your way in the not too distant future!!

SPLAT!!!

 

[westin]

Why do I somehow feel that all this Fedex Oct. drama will some how make me the Upser busier? As if 11 to 12hr days arent long enough. Ive noticed our morale at ups is as low as ever and I'm on my 24th year. I think Fred is stumped that a union company can make so much profits paying them high wages yet his company cant. Is Fred having a mid life profit crisis. I got an Idea, combine your entities, pay some real wages and save money by not duplicating your Processes-Fedex express, Ground, Home delivery. Damn, I see 6 different Fedex drivers doing what I do. Less trucks, less bldgs, less employees and walaaa--You can pay your employees more! If Ups can work with the union, Fedex can too. It just requires real efficiencies of which Fedex has no clue at the upper Managment level. Just my input.

 

[vantexan]

Switching to a new barcode at ground. Is express doing the same? As early as january 2013. Could be a sign...

If one division is picking up E-2, and another is delivering the same pkg, then they both have to be able to scan that pkg. Looks like it's coming quick.

 

[vantexan]

Why do I somehow feel that all this Fedex Oct. drama will some how make me the Upser busier? As if 11 to 12hr days arent long enough. Ive noticed our morale at ups is as low as ever and I'm on my 24th year. I think Fred is stumped that a union company can make so much profits paying them high wages yet his company cant. Is Fred having a mid life profit crisis. I got an Idea, combine your entities, pay some real wages and save money by not duplicating your Processes-Fedex express, Ground, Home delivery. Damn, I see 6 different Fedex drivers doing what I do. Less trucks, less bldgs, less employees and walaaa--You can pay your employees more! If Ups can work with the union, Fedex can too. It just requires real efficiencies of which Fedex has no clue at the upper Managment level. Just my input.

What they want is to be extremely profitable while paying us as little as possible. Keep in mind that as they take more and more from UPS it'll be tougher to pay those great wages and benefits. If you are going to get all competitive and say you won't lose to Ground then put yourself in the shoes of shipping mgrs at large corporations. They are going to go with the cheaper service as long as it gets there in a reasonable time. I've seen the prices. You can't compete and pay high wages and benefits. If UPS drivers are smart they'll start living like monks and save and invest until it hurts.

 

[DontThrowPackages]

Why do I somehow feel that all this Fedex Oct. drama will some how make me the Upser busier? As if 11 to 12hr days arent long enough. Ive noticed our morale at ups is as low as ever and I'm on my 24th year. I think Fred is stumped that a union company can make so much profits paying them high wages yet his company cant. Is Fred having a mid life profit crisis. I got an Idea, combine your entities, pay some real wages and save money by not duplicating your Processes-Fedex express, Ground, Home delivery. Damn, I see 6 different Fedex drivers doing what I do. Less trucks, less bldgs, less employees and walaaa--You can pay your employees more! If Ups can work with the union, Fedex can too. It just requires real efficiencies of which Fedex has no clue at the upper Managment level. Just my input.

Truth to what you say. Can't tell you how many times customers have asked an Express guy to take a ground PUP and the Express guy says, "sorry, Im not ground". And the customer replies," But its been here for a week now". "Did you call it in?" And so on. But combining the two would only happen if ground takes over all. Time will tell. It was a fun time but I can almost hear that song sung,in my youth, by that guy in the Monday night football booth in a 4th quarter blowout.

 

[bbsam]

Why do I somehow feel that all this Fedex Oct. drama will some how make me the Upser busier? As if 11 to 12hr days arent long enough. Ive noticed our morale at ups is as low as ever and I'm on my 24th year. I think Fred is stumped that a union company can make so much profits paying them high wages yet his company cant. Is Fred having a mid life profit crisis. I got an Idea, combine your entities, pay some real wages and save money by not duplicating your Processes-Fedex express, Ground, Home delivery. Damn, I see 6 different Fedex drivers doing what I do. Less trucks, less bldgs, less employees and walaaa--You can pay your employees more! If Ups can work with the union, Fedex can too. It just requires real efficiencies of which Fedex has no clue at the upper Managment level. Just my input.

I am betting that UPS management does not see it as you do. What you see as inefficiencies is really several things at once. It's advertising, specialized operations, and larger corporate footprint all at the same time. I've said many times that the profit UPS makes is impressive, but the profit Fedex makes, while definitely smaller, I think is more sustainable. Fedex plows that profit right back into the business continuously prepping for increased market share. The cheap labor makes it possible. They could be profitable paying higher wages, but growth would be severely slowed.

 

[Bailey4]

Fedex is taking this growth from itself. It is not taking it from UPS. I would imagine if Fedex needs growth so badly that it has to take it from Express .....then it must not be taking enough of it from UPS. Frankly, this would appear to give UPS an edge to me. Fedex would have restricted what Express can offer which makes using UPS easier and Ground cannot offer what UPS can even if E2 was to be added. Also, Ground is a network of contractors in which some are good and some not so much. The Ground network lacks the consistency that comes with paid employees with regard to control. Fedex would most likely need to add more and more pressure to hold it together. And when they do, it will most likely become weaker not stronger for a number of reasons.

 

[thedownhillEXPRESS]

Fedex is taking this growth from itself. It is not taking it from UPS. I would imagine if Fedex needs growth so badly that it has to take it from Express .....then it must not be taking enough of it from UPS. Frankly, this would appear to give UPS an edge to me. Fedex would have restricted what Express can offer which makes using UPS easier and Ground cannot offer what UPS can even if E2 was to be added. Also, Ground is a network of contractors in which some are good and some not so much. The Ground network lacks the consistency that comes with paid employees with regard to control. Fedex would most likely need to add more and more pressure to hold it together. And when they do, it will most likely become weaker not stronger for a number of reasons.

Hence why most of us are predicting the eventual collapse of Fedex....

 

[Glorifiedpackmule]

Truth to what you say. Can't tell you how many times customers have asked an Express guy to take a ground PUP and the Express guy says, "sorry, Im not ground". And the customer replies," But its been here for a week now". "Did you call it in?" And so on. But combining the two would only happen if ground takes over all. Time will tell. It was a fun time but I can almost hear that song sung,in my youth, by that guy in the Monday night football booth in a 4th quarter blowout.

I have to do this daily. "Can you take this pkg sir? No ma'm I cannot take that. I do not work for that company. You'll have to call FedEx ground to pick that up. But aren't you FedEx? I work for FedEx Express. We called for this to be picked up last week. Ma'm I'm sorry." I'm almost to the point of pointing people towards UPS for their Ground shipment needs. I have a hard time reccomending people to Use FedEx Ground.

 

[vantexan]

Fedex is taking this growth from itself. It is not taking it from UPS. I would imagine if Fedex needs growth so badly that it has to take it from Express .....then it must not be taking enough of it from UPS. Frankly, this would appear to give UPS an edge to me. Fedex would have restricted what Express can offer which makes using UPS easier and Ground cannot offer what UPS can even if E2 was to be added. Also, Ground is a network of contractors in which some are good and some not so much. The Ground network lacks the consistency that comes with paid employees with regard to control. Fedex would most likely need to add more and more pressure to hold it together. And when they do, it will most likely become weaker not stronger for a number of reasons.

If that were true UPS wouldn't be looking to restrict the pay of future newhires. Certainly Ground is cannibalizing Express, but they are also taking marketshare from UPS. With the low pay and no benefits there's just no way UPS can match Ground's prices. A lot of longtime UPS shippers may not be aware of this yet, but as they become aware it'll fuel further Ground growth.

 

[bbsam]

Hence why most of us are predicting the eventual collapse of Fedex....

I've literally been hearing this prediction for years...and years...and years. Oh, and those years kept seeing grownth, and growth, and more growth.

 

[thedownhillEXPRESS]

I've literally been hearing this prediction for years...and years...and years. Oh, and those years kept seeing grownth, and growth, and more growth.

we've been waiting for the official shift over of xs and e2 ...

 

[bbsam]

we've been waiting for the official shift over of xs and e2 ...

Not three years ago you weren't.

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

FedEx Ground is taking volume from UPS as well.

 

[MrFedEx]

FedEx Ground is taking volume from UPS as well.

Maybe UPS should show some level of concern.

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

Maybe UPS should show some level of concern.

Much like any other major corporation, UPS is reactive, not proactive.

 

[STFXG]

Another major facility going up in Philly... 64 mill!

 

[59 Dano]

If that were true UPS wouldn't be looking to restrict the pay of future newhires. Certainly Ground is cannibalizing Express, but they are also taking marketshare from UPS. With the low pay and no benefits there's just no way UPS can match Ground's prices. A lot of longtime UPS shippers may not be aware of this yet, but as they become aware it'll fuel further Ground growth.

You have hit the nail on the head.

 

[MrFedEx]

You have hit the nail on the head.

And you support it whole heartedly, don't you? It's "just business". Sorry, but you've lost any shred of credibility.

 

[Ricochet1a]

Maybe UPS should show some level of concern.

Maybe the IBT should show some level of concern...

It is their membership which will stand to lose - NOT UPS, they'll still make their profit, they'll just end up negotiating contracts with lower and lower compensation in order to stay somewhat competitive with Ground.