PJM Advisory

[bacha29]

Last evening PJM issued an emergency advisory to all plants supplying PJM's service area that they need to standby prepared to come online at full capacity.
Looks like the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions are about to get a small taste of the misery the South and Southwest have been enduring for weeks.

 

[burrheadd]

Ok then
Roger that

 

[Box Ox]

Should be fine as long as lots of people don't start trying to charge electric vehicles. Peak demand is forecast to be 18% below full generating capacity.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2023-07-27/us-grid-operator-pjm-declares-level-one-emergency-amid-scorching-heat

"PJM oversees supply in a 13-state region, managing and paying on-call generators to keep power systems running.

Demand is forecast to reach 153,286 MW as of 5:00 EPT on Thursday, and has approximately 186,000 MW of generating capacity."

 

[DriveInDriveOut]

If everyone would just eat bugs we could stop the climate apocalypse.

 

[bacha29]

Should be fine as long as lots of people don't start trying to charge electric vehicles. Peak demand is forecast to be 18% below full generating capacity.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2023-07-27/us-grid-operator-pjm-declares-level-one-emergency-amid-scorching-heat

"PJM oversees supply in a 13-state region, managing and paying on-call generators to keep power systems running.

Demand is forecast to reach 153,286 MW as of 5:00 EPT on Thursday, and has approximately 186,000 MW of generating capacity."

Much credit is owed to Andrew Ott for his modernization of PJM. Fortunately, PJM had the foresight to put Andy Ott in charge of the grid. For once you didn't have a lawyer or an administrator or some other clueless soul running the grid. Andy Ott is an electrical engineer .

ERCOT would be doing themselves a favor if they could lure Andy Ott out of retirement. if they could he would have Texas tied onto the national grid immediately so it would be prepared for the next storm or heat wave.

 

[Wally]

Plain to see, we need more generating capacity from gas, coal, and nuclear. The Green Raw Deal isn't working.

 

[bacha29]

Plain to see, we need more generating capacity from gas, coal, and nuclear. The Green Raw Deal isn't working.

The issue is not generating capacity and clean energy at that. If fact there is quite a bit waiting to come on line , Wally. The problem rests with the cost of modernization and upgrading of the grid. Years to do it and billions to be spent.

In fact just yesterday plans for a twin (1240 megawatt each) gas turbine fired power plant in Pennsylvania were scrapped for several different reasons.
1. Too close to town to meet air quality requirements.
2. Would have to run a gas line (16") 7 miles to the plant.
3. Would have a pretty tough time generating power at a cost that could compete in today's deregulated market.

 

[Wally]

The issue is not generating capacity and clean energy at that. If fact there is quite a bit waiting to come on line , Wally. The problem rests with the cost of modernization and upgrading of the grid. Years to do it and billions to be spent.

In fact just yesterday plans for a twin (1240 megawatt each) gas turbine fired power plant in Pennsylvania were scrapped for several different reasons.
1. Too close to town to meet air quality requirements.
2. Would have to run a gas line (16") 7 miles to the plant.
3. Would have a pretty tough time generating power at a cost that could compete in today's deregulated market.

Yep. Environment wacko's blocking progress.

 

[bacha29]

Yep. Environment wacko's blocking progress.

Nope. Economics pure and simple. Right now 30 states and DC are deregulated electricity markets and some are both natural gas and electric. Perhaps your state isn't one of them.

Now how many construction permits for big coal fired labor intensive power plants are being issued today? Zero. Too expensive to build. too expensive to operate , takes too long to build them.

Instead what you're seeing are the smaller, cleaner, easier and faster to build pre fabricated gas plants that use a fraction of the labor. Now those are the ones that can compete in today's deregulated markets. And most importantly, they can be built where the grid wants and needs them located.

In fact first and second stage approval has been granted for a solar power farm to be built not far from where I live on an old back filled strip mine. The developers are saying that they can generate and sell power for 10-15% less than the most commonly used supplier in this area and can power 1500 homes.

 

[Wally]

Nope. Economics pure and simple. Right now 30 states and DC are deregulated electricity markets and some are both natural gas and electric. Perhaps your state isn't one of them.

Now how many construction permits for big coal fired labor intensive power plants are being issued today? Zero. Too expensive to build. too expensive to operate , takes too long to build them.

Instead what you're seeing are the smaller, cleaner, easier and faster to build pre fabricated gas plants that use a fraction of the labor. Now those are the ones that can compete in today's deregulated markets. And most importantly, they can be built where the grid wants and needs them located.

In fact first and second stage approval has been granted for a solar power farm to be built not far from where I live on an old back filled strip mine. The developers are saying that they can generate and sell power for 10-15% less than the most commonly used supplier in this area and can power 1500 homes.

Solar is totally dependent on free government money. Add that cost and the cost of removing and replacing all that plastic.

Solar is fine, but not the answer.

 

[newolddude]

Solar is totally dependent on free government money. Add that cost and the cost of removing and replacing all that plastic.

Solar is fine, but not the answer

Solar is not the answer. Nobody is saying solar fixes everything. But it’s another tool that you guys don’t like simply don’t like because it’s not manly.

 

[Wally]

Solar is not the answer. Nobody is saying solar fixes everything. But it’s another tool that you guys don’t like simply don’t like because it’s not manly.

Bottom line, we need power plants built, coal, gas, oil, and nuclear.

 

[bacha29]

Bottom line, we need power plants built, coal, gas, oil, and nuclear.

Bottom line. Only those power plants that will be needed will be the ones that can compete in a deregulated market and are compliant with long standing environmental laws.

If fact you might be doing yourself a favor if you were to read and familiarize yourself with the HB6/Generation Now scandal when it comes to the competitive standing of ageing power plants.

 

[vantexan]

Solar is not the answer. Nobody is saying solar fixes everything. But it’s another tool that you guys don’t like simply don’t like because it’s not manly.

That's just silly. If solar is the solution it would already be the solution. @bacha29 said they are going to put in a solar power plant that'll generate enough power to run 1500 plants. Do the math. We'd have to have these farms literally everywhere. And that doesn't address cloudy days, especially in the winter. Then have all those households charging EV's, and all appliances switched to electric, particularly ovens and water heaters. Furnaces too. He has the audacity to say generating capacity isn't the issue. And he fails to mention the reason coal and natural gas can't compete is the Democrats have regulated them to the point that many had no choice but to shut down. At the end of the day they will destroy our country's ability to be competitive and the world will keep using fossil fuels.

 

[bacha29]

That's just silly. If solar is the solution it would already be the solution. @bacha29 said they are going to put in a solar power plant that'll generate enough power to run 1500 plants. Do the math. We'd have to have these farms literally everywhere. And that doesn't address cloudy days, especially in the winter. Then have all those households charging EV's, and all appliances switched to electric, particularly ovens and water heaters. Furnaces too. He has the audacity to say generating capacity isn't the issue. And he fails to mention the reason coal and natural gas can't compete is the Democrats have regulated them to the point that many had no choice but to shut down. At the end of the day they will destroy our country's ability to be competitive and the world will keep using fossil fuels.

Having difficulty reading? I said 1500 homes. Understand Florida is not a rate deregulated state. That keeps old plants running because they serve a regulated market. They can get the raises they want through rate requests made to the state of Florida to generate electricity to pay for all that air conditioning just to keep Florida livable In deregulated states such as mine what shut the big old coal and nuclear down was their inability to win contracts in a deregulated market at rates that allowed those plants to operate profitably. In addition, many of those big old coal plants that you love so dearly were built 50+ years ago and now need timely and expensive overhauls that further inhibits their chances of competing.

Now I know how much some of you guys still want to live in the 1950's I 've got a story for you. At the other end of my county is an old coal power plant built in 1954. About 10 years ago the utility seeing how much it would cost to upgrade the plant sold it to a third party operator. That new operator spent big money to convert it to natural gas believing that it could compete as a base load plant. Didn't turn out that way. Today is a supplemental load plant that only runs when the grid says it needs the power.

I think you would do yourself a favor if you too read and familiarized yourself with the HB6/Generation Now scandal. If you did you would come to the understanding that solutions are just not quite as easy to come by as Fox News has you believing they are.

 

[vantexan]

Having difficulty reading? I said 1500 homes. Understand Florida is not a rate deregulated state. That keeps old plants running because they serve a regulated market. They can get the raises they want through rate requests made to the state of Florida to generate electricity to pay for all that air conditioning just to keep Florida livable In deregulated states such as mine what shut the big old coal and nuclear down was their inability to win contracts in a deregulated market at rates that allowed those plants to operate profitably. In addition, many of those big old coal plants that you love so dearly were built 50+ years ago and now need timely and expensive overhauls that further inhibits their chances of competing.

Now I know how much some of you guys still want to live in the 1950's I 've got a story for you. At the other end of my county is an old coal power plant built in 1954. About 10 years ago the utility seeing how much it would cost to upgrade the plant sold it to a third party operator. That new operator spent big money to convert it to natural gas believing that it could compete as a base load plant. Didn't turn out that way. Today is a supplemental load plant that only runs when the grid says it needs the power.

I think you would do yourself a favor if you too read and familiarized yourself with the HB6/Generation Now scandal. If you did you would come to the understanding that solutions are just not quite as easy to come by as Fox News has you believing they are.

You're avoiding natural gas to demonize coal but many plants are using natural gas as it's a cheap byproduct of oil production and easily moved with pipelines. But you don't want any fossil fuels and while you talk about deregulated markets it was the Obama administration that so heavily regulated power plants that quite a few had no choice but to shut down.

What did I get wrong about 1500 homes? If you build a solar farm to run 1500 homes how many solar farms will you need to power millions, tens of millions of homes? And with the demands put on them by moving to EV's and all electric appliances those solar farms will see the number of homes they can support go down considerably. And that's without even talking about nature's unwillingness to cooperate with constant sun.

And I don't get this from FOX News. That's a lazy intellectual out designed to marginalize an argument. You libs just haven't thought this through but you're willing to run us into the ground trying to make it work. Yeah, you'll need tens of millions of new voters because the hardship you'll cause will turn many of your own voters against you.

 

[bacha29]

You're avoiding natural gas to demonize coal but many plants are using natural gas as it's a cheap byproduct of oil production and easily moved with pipelines. But you don't want any fossil fuels and while you talk about deregulated markets it was the Obama administration that so heavily regulated power plants that quite a few had no choice but to shut down.

What did I get wrong about 1500 homes? If you build a solar farm to run 1500 homes how many solar farms will you need to power millions, tens of millions of homes? And with the demands put on them by moving to EV's and all electric appliances those solar farms will see the number of homes they can support go down considerably. And that's without even talking about nature's unwillingness to cooperate with constant sun.

And I don't get this from FOX News. That's a lazy intellectual out designed to marginalize an argument. You libs just haven't thought this through but you're willing to run us into the ground trying to make it work. Yeah, you'll need tens of millions of new voters because the hardship you'll cause will turn many of your own voters against you.

As the South and Southwest broils under what is expected to be the hottest July in the recorded history of human civilization and the only way people can survive down there is to run from one air conditioned building to the next and the AMOC report is based on corroborated date....are you trying to tell me that this is NOT climate change?

Funny, you don't hear much out of the climate deniers anymore. Perhaps they themselves are too busy running from one air conditioned building to the next to say anything.

So I gather that in your opinion we should burn even more fossil fuels dumping even even more carbon into the atmosphere just to continue to keep the South livable?

And even if we did build more fossil fuel plants what good is that going to do if the distribution network that being the power grid can't withstand the additional load because it's already maxed out? You'll have substations and transformers blowing up all over the place. In fact just the other day a substation outside Pittsburgh blew up. Because of the huge fire and the smoke created by the burning transformer oil is toxic all they could do is let it burn itself out.

 

[vantexan]

As the South and Southwest broils under what is expected to be the hottest July in the recorded history of human civilization and the only way people can survive down there is to run from one air conditioned building to the next and the AMOC report is based on corroborated date....are you trying to tell me that this is NOT climate change?

Funny, you don't hear much out of the climate deniers anymore. Perhaps they themselves are too busy running from one air conditioned building to the next to say anything.

So I gather that in your opinion we should burn even more fossil fuels dumping even even more carbon into the atmosphere just to continue to keep the South livable?

And even if we did build more fossil fuel plants what good is that going to do if the distribution network that being the power grid can't withstand the additional load because it's already maxed out? You'll have substations and transformers blowing up all over the place. In fact just the other day a substation outside Pittsburgh blew up. Because of the huge fire and the smoke created by the burning transformer oil is toxic all they could do is let it burn itself out.

You're running away from the points I made. Tell me something, the latest heatwave broke records. When were those records set? Decades ago. Many decades ago. Were the previous records 20 degrees cooler? No, they weren't. And to act like this is the hottest the Earth has ever been when records only go back so far is misleading at best.

P.S. In the dry Southwest they use swamp coolers. Much cheaper and can easily be run by solar. Meanwhile you're dodging how we're supposed to build enough solar farms to run every 1500 houses, even in the Northeast where getting enough sun is problematic.

 

[bacha29]

You're running away from the points I made. Tell me something, the latest heatwave broke records. When were those records set? Decades ago. Many decades ago. Were the previous records 20 degrees cooler? No, they weren't. And to act like this is the hottest the Earth has ever been when records only go back so far is misleading at best.

P.S. In the dry Southwest they use swamp coolers. Much cheaper and can easily be run by solar. Meanwhile you're dodging how we're supposed to build enough solar farms to run every 1500 houses, even in the Northeast where getting enough sun is problematic.

I never said solar farms could supply 100% BUT the well established facts whether you want to accept it or not those big old coal and nukes which take a battalion size group of people to run them simply cannot compete in a deregulated market.

Instead of 200 or more people to run those old things the smaller gas plants that can be put up in half the time employ only a couple of dozen and the solar farms 2 or 3 with nowhere near the pollution. And the cancelled gas power plant I mentioned earlier. The one turbine was designed to go on PJM and the other was to go up north. Andy Ott of PJM told the developers that they would have to find a way to cut 70 million dollars out of the construction cost if they had any chance of competing in a deregulated market with no guarantee that they would even need the power to begin with,

Not to mention the fact that the amperage losses from trying to push power through those old grid lines is substantial.

And BTW global temperatures have been slowly move up for the past several decades. The most important fact however is that I've not heard a single qualified climatologist who will tell you that it's not going to get worse.

 

[vantexan]

I never said solar farms could supply 100% BUT the well established facts whether you want to accept it or not those big old coal and nukes which take a battalion size group of people to run them simply cannot compete in a deregulated market.

Instead of 200 or more people to run those old things the smaller gas plants that can be put up in half the time employ only a couple of dozen and the solar farms 2 or 3 with nowhere near the pollution. And the cancelled gas power plant I mentioned earlier. The one turbine was designed to go on PJM and the other was to go up north. Andy Ott of PJM told the developers that they would have to find a way to cut 70 million dollars out of the construction cost if they had any chance of competing in a deregulated market with no guarantee that they would even need the power to begin with,

Not to mention the fact that the amperage losses from trying to push power through those old grid lines is substantial.

And BTW global temperatures have been slowly move up for the past several decades. The most important fact however is that I've not heard a single qualified climatologist who will tell you that it's not going to get worse.

You pointed out that a solar farm being built can supply power to 1500 homes. OK, how many solar farms would it take to address a power shortfall given that fossil fuels are being pushed out? Assuming you do keep natural gas to some extent.

And much smaller nuclear plants have been developed.

The founder of the Weather Channel, a respected climatologist, says climate change is a hoax. Others have too.

You may not have noticed but we recently went through a number of years with cooler temps.