2 Billion Jobs to Disappear by 2030 (UPS DRIVER is one of them)

[sortaisle]

I think there'll be bailout teams instead of fulltime drivers. Or the more likely scenario until they do get up in the air and can go in straight lines, is we'll just be babysitters for the tech...and I don't know about you but the baby sitters and nannies I know make bank.

 

[ZJ NOMAD]

FuturistSpeaker.com – A Study of Future Trends and Predictions by Futurist Thomas Frey � Blog Archive � 2 Billion Jobs to Disappear by 2030

Just what the lazies have been yearning for - another excuse why they can't work.

 

[OPTION3]

How about when Google maps shows a street or road going thru, when in fact it doesn't?

​HAHA..lets see GOOGLE back that set up 1/2 mile....or break it down and re-build it going the other way.....HILARIOUS!

 

[chuchu]

Wasnt we supposed to have flying cars? by the year 2000?

We have them. Ever watch the new hires drive?

 

[Indecisi0n]

Sometimes I wish my job would disappear.

 

[3838373]

we supposed to have flying cars? by the year 2000?

Read more: http://www.browncafe.com/forum/f6/2...ver-one-them-352645/index3.html#ixzz2gCAr9RBA​

We could easily have flying cars we have the technology but it's not a very cost effective technology that would yet be affordable for the average consumer.

​

 

[iruhnman630]

3D printing...our biggest long-term threat?

 

[Logb17]

No way in the near future a self driven truck could make deliveries. They could not deliver to houses with gates, gravel roads or businesses with dropoff and pickup points. It would take very advanced AI to complete these task, close to the "singularity." It could get you to the approximate location and then have a driver takeover. We are VERY far away from robots actually delivering the packages as well, unless the owner came out of the house and the vehicle dispensed the package, which would not be cost effective.

Just imagine a computer looking at hanging down branches on a gravel road and deciding if it was safe to push through. Distant future. Same goes for driverless cars. pipe dream..

 

[tonyexpress]

Well, I guess if I had a 3 D printer I wouldn't need my wrench delivered by UPS.... Hmm..

​Amazing 3D Printer - YouTube

 

[Buck Fifty]

Only thing that will disappear is the pay ! The job will always be there !

 

[Brownslave688]

I was thinking about this thread today while I was driving a feeder tractor and trailer and I was trying to be unbiased about whether or not this technology could replace a tractor trailer driven by a human.



I assume the tractor trailer would have to have cameras all around the tractor and trailer so that the computer can do what it does on this google car. Of course the cameras would have to be powered by the tractor via a hookup cord, the same cord would transmit info back to the computer from the trailer cameras. Now we already have a power cord that we plug into a trailer that we pull and sometimes the connection is spotty . As we turn the combined units , the cord stretches and sometimes a light goes out momentarily. Based on this occurence, one can assume the cameras can lose power when they are needed most.

Now , sometimes I have to go over yellow lines to safely make a turn , will the "google tractor trailer" do that or will the yellow lines be sacred? Sometimes I am in deep deep traffic, metropolitan rush hour traffic in which I have to force the issue to make a lane change, if you know what I mean. Is this google computer up to task?


​Some of my thoughts on this.

no your way off on how this will work. No cameras simply sensors that will transmit information wirelessly to an on board computer. Likely not long after that cars will begin to communicate with each other.

 

[Brownslave688]

No way in the near future a self driven truck could make deliveries. They could not deliver to houses with gates, gravel roads or businesses with dropoff and pickup points. It would take very advanced AI to complete these task, close to the "singularity." It could get you to the approximate location and then have a driver takeover. We are VERY far away from robots actually delivering the packages as well, unless the owner came out of the house and the vehicle dispensed the package, which would not be cost effective.

Just imagine a computer looking at hanging down branches on a gravel road and deciding if it was safe to push through. Distant future. Same goes for driverless cars. pipe dream..

We have driverless cars now.... Also distant future? 20-30 is the distant future with the way computer tech is advancing. When I graduated high school only 10 years ago no one had an mp3 player. Now my 10 year old cousin has a smart phone.

 

[pickup]

no your way off on how this will work. No cameras simply sensors that will transmit information wirelessly to an on board computer. Likely not long after that cars will begin to communicate with each other.

Good point, good point. I was about to ask "what's the frequency, Kenneth?" ( A REM and/or Dan Assault reference pun). In other words, what protected bandwidth will these wireless transmissions be in so that the info is not interfered with by other transmissions in the limited electromagnetic band dedicated to transmissions? Then I think I answered my own question as the info would go (via wire) to a transmitter to the front of the trailer . The receiver would be at the back of tractor creating a small gap for transmission. This arrangement should preclude another transmitter on the same or overlapping frequency from overriding the input due to its much further distance.

You are probably going to still need a power source for the cameras and it is going to have to come from the tractor via the electrical power cord hookup. A rechargeable battery backup system would probably be needed in the event that the electrical cord gets pulled from the tractor.

 

[DriveInDriveOut]

Look at it this way. Planes have autopilot, a lot of them can even practically land themselves. Yet pilots are still making bank. DOT is still gonna require a driver whether it's a driverless car or not. There's no way the union is gonna let drivers lose their jobs or take a pay cut, driverless car or not. At the same time, I highly doubt 15-20 years from now new drivers are gonna be on the same pay scale.... how much do driver helpers make again?

I'm thinking this technology will work best when ALL cars have it.
Nissan has plans for a driverless car by 2020. Figure 10-15 years at least for it to trickle down to the cheap models. Then take into account the average age of a car on the road is about 10 years. I think the guy is at least 25 years off.

 

[JL 0513]

In 16 short years, there's going to be androids that can do everything we do during the course of a day? Um, no. This futurist is waaay off.

First, I'd like to get a truck that has power steering. A technology brought to market in the early 1950's. And some day, maybe I'll see a truck with an automatic transmission? Like thousands of other drivers, I drive a truck built in the '80s in 2013 This futurist expects us to believe that we'll be replaced in 16 years with remarkable new technology when UPS keeps trucks on the road for 30 years? In the year 2030, the best I can expect to see is to be driving a nice shiny truck built sometime in the early 2000's. Think about it, UPS just started putting in keyless start systems in a few years ago. My truck still doesn't have it. Even if a tech exists, doesn't mean everyone will get it right away.

For us to be replaced, not only would we need self driving trucks (by far, the easiest part of this equation), but a completely humanoid robot with AI. No less than the robots depicted in the film iRobot. To be able to select a package of a million varying sizes, shapes, and weights from an area where packages have been thrown around into a mess. Then be able to properly deliver a package to a completely unique situation each stop.

Not going to happen for a very, very, long time. Safe to say not during any of our careers even if we are only 22.