Hurricane Irma

[UnconTROLLed]

Janice Dean (the weather machine) said (unofficially) that she thought the waters were warm enough prior to Irma's hit that it could get to Cat. 5. It would depend where it makes landfall.

Makes no difference if/when it makes landfall, whether it gets to category 5 intensity. A category 5 landfall is highly unlikely/nearly impossible unless it strikes Florida or Bahamas, and even then it's unlikely. Janice Dean was talking about peak intensity over open waters.

 

[BSWALKS]

hi

Damn, this could be 1938 all over again

 

[UnconTROLLed]

Damn, this could be 1938 all over again

that would be interesting, but probably not in our lifetime. LOL

 

[BSWALKS]

that would be interesting, but probably not in our lifetime. LOL

Hopefully not, but that spaghetti plot shows a direct hit for me.

 

[moreluck]

Makes no difference if/when it makes landfall, whether it gets to category 5 intensity. A category 5 landfall is highly unlikely/nearly impossible unless it strikes Florida or Bahamas, and even then it's unlikely. Janice Dean was talking about peak intensity over open waters.

that's why I specified "prior to the hit".

 

[Future]

Hopefully not, but that spaghetti plot shows a direct hit for me.

It's no where near Burma!

 

[BSWALKS]

It's no where near Burma!

Bullseye on Myanmar though

 

[Future]

Bullseye on Myanmar though

I am already preparing

 

[BSWALKS]

I am already preparing

Booking off?

 

[Brownslave688]

hi

934 mb that'll be one powerful storm

 

[UnconTROLLed]

As it stands, there is pretty amazing agreement that a SC/NC hit is likely. Well into the interior southeast, as well. Probably a 920-930mb category 4 hurricane similar to 1989's Hugo.

A little early to sound the alarms, but if I lived there, I'd definitely be taking this seriously and beginning, at least, basic preparations.

Still a few more days to see if the models are crapping the bed on the key features guiding Irma, but I would be surprised.

 

[silenze]

Still a few more days to see if the models are crapping the bed on the key features guiding Irma, but I would be surprised.

 

[Catatonic]

If Jersey sustained a direct hit, would anyone care? Any destruction would be an improvement.

Cuckland?

 

[BSWALKS]

Cuckland?

Sure.

You'd be on the outsude looking in, yes?

 

[Catatonic]

Sure.

You'd be on the outside looking in, yes?

Exactly where I would want to be.

 

[oldngray]

Exactly where I would want to be.

While holding a camera.

 

[BSWALKS]

Exactly where I would want to be.

Pervert









Post pics

 

[UnconTROLLed]

well the 12z operational European model shows the storm exiting stage right off of the OBX area (after brutalizing the Bahamas and etc)

It's own ensemble members are all over the place, as expected, but 60% -70% have a landfall.

It's going to come down whether or not a low pressure system develops over the Canadian Maritimes, in roughly 6-8 days. Most landfalling hurricanes have a high pressure over the N Atlantic and also extending into Maritime Canada.

We'll see if this idea holds.

 

[silenze]

im sure we will read it here first

 

[Johney]

It is
interesting to note that a ship (BATFR17) passed within 50 n mi to
the west of the center of Irma and has only reported winds of
about 40 kt, indicating that the core of Irma is compact.

Why in the hell would any ship pass that close to a hurricane? Surely they all remember the El Faro?