UnconTROLLed
perfection
Not intentional
Hurricane Irma
- Thread starter UnconTROLLed
- Start date
Johney
Well-Known Member
Not intentional? What are they idiots? No modern day communications,satellite,weather reports?
UnconTROLLed
perfection
These ships are generally capable of handling a hurricane, as are the captain and crew.
The biggest unknown in hurricane forecasting is not "track", but intensity forecasting. Irma went through "RI" rapid intensification much earlier than the NHC or any agency/outlet forecasted. In 18 hours, from a meager tropical storm to a powerful major hurricane.
Basically, the ship was stuck on it's track and the hurricane intensified well beyond forecasts. This was really a coincidence more than anything.
oldngray
nowhere special
Ships can usually weather it out if they are in open ocean. The problems are usually when they get caught too close to shore.
UnconTROLLed
perfection
From 8/31 5pm EST discussion...intensity forecasting is a pain in the butt . none of the guidance, even the most aggressive, had a 50kt increase in max wind speed in less than 24hr.
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall
convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to
rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB
support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt
increase from yesterday at this time.
Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement
cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the
eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for
this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment
for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles
and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast
intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend,
Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to
be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be
strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC
prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line
with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional
hurricane models at that time.
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall
convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to
rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB
support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt
increase from yesterday at this time.
Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement
cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the
eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for
this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment
for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles
and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast
intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend,
Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to
be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be
strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC
prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line
with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional
hurricane models at that time.
rod
Retired 22 years
Johney
Well-Known Member
Yea that's what the captain of the El Faro thought. See what that got him and his crew.
UnconTROLLed
perfection
On the latest operational 18z gfs model, it shows a devastating, basically catastrophic hit to SE Florida, particularly Miami/Dade county. The minimum pressure is ~890 mb, which would be a nearly unprecedented hurricane. Even with a correction of +30 mb, that's a 920mb hurricane and devastating.
Also, some chance (30%?) this cuts across FL and reaches the gulf. That needs to be watched.
I would say the odds of a U.S. landfall are near 80% right now.
Also, some chance (30%?) this cuts across FL and reaches the gulf. That needs to be watched.
I would say the odds of a U.S. landfall are near 80% right now.
Attachments
rod
Retired 22 years
rod
Retired 22 years
retiredTxfeeder
cap'n crunch
Chynna
Member
Why is it that UPS can not adopt a natural disaster protocol that actually protects and supports their drivers and staff. To keep your TEAM working up to the moment so to speak does not allow time for your own PEOPLE to prepare. That is despicable.
What is the very worst weather you see in SoCal?
MAKAVELI
Well-Known Member
Too much sun. It's blinding.
moreluck
golden ticket member
fire! Is that weather????
It's pretty perfect! Luv it!
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