401k returns

Raw

Raw Member
But remember in order for your scheme to work you have to get lucky twice. You'd need to wait until the market is even lower and then buy back in. But the question is always, will it go lower from Friday's close? It may not. It could. But it might not ever be this low again.
Dow will go below 10,000
 

olroadbeech

Happy Verified UPSer
I've lost $179K since the Feb high, give or take a few dollars. { around 30 % }
I sincerely believe that when we beat this corona virus and we will the economy is gonna go gangbusters like it did sometime after World War II . People will be euphoric. May take some time to recover after the virus is contained but it will happen. That is why we continue to buy into the market even as it goes down.
 

Package Stick

"Send it."
This is not even close to done. People are going to start cashing out 401Ks to pay bills and buy food.

I'mma keep shorting speculative stocks. I sold my SPY puts 2 weeks ago, an expensive fail of judgment.

Next month's unemployment numbers...
 

olroadbeech

Happy Verified UPSer
This is not even close to done. People are going to start cashing out 401Ks to pay bills and buy food.

I'mma keep shorting speculative stocks. I sold my SPY puts 2 weeks ago, an expensive fail of judgment.

Next month's unemployment numbers...
I agree . but i did not say this is almost done. when it is the market will recover quickly. I'm betting big on it. I'll be either rich or poor if wrong .
 

Up In Smoke

Well-Known Member
I agree . but i did not say this is almost done. when it is the market will recover quickly. I'm betting big on it. I'll be either rich or poor if wrong .
If these closures last for three or four more weeks, small businesses will be lost. The ripple effect of people having to put their lives on a credit card will have long lasting financial effects. To date some 100 million people have been ordered home from work and school. If past stimulus action have taught us anything, the money goes to pay down debt. The 08-09 economic event caused 10% unemployment and this one is rumored to take us to or past 20%. Depending how this bill is written will determine how quickly the stock market gets back to pre-virus levels. If the bills are written and bailout will be payed back, similar to the auto bailouts, it will be a long slow recovery. Company's have already announced cutting or eliminating dividends for Q2 and Q3. I believe this is a 2-3 year slow recovery, seriously what airline is going to buy a new plane in the foreseeable future.
 

olroadbeech

Happy Verified UPSer
If these closures last for three or four more weeks, small businesses will be lost. The ripple effect of people having to put their lives on a credit card will have long lasting financial effects. To date some 100 million people have been ordered home from work and school. If past stimulus action have taught us anything, the money goes to pay down debt. The 08-09 economic event caused 10% unemployment and this one is rumored to take us to or past 20%. Depending how this bill is written will determine how quickly the stock market gets back to pre-virus levels. If the bills are written and bailout will be payed back, similar to the auto bailouts, it will be a long slow recovery. Company's have already announced cutting or eliminating dividends for Q2 and Q3. I believe this is a 2-3 year slow recovery, seriously what airline is going to buy a new plane in the foreseeable future.
Your theory is about as good as any.
landlords in my area are already giving a free months rent for people and businesses or significant discounts. they know most are in the same boat.

It depends on how long this crisis lasts. a couple months means a faster recovery. 3-6 months , several years like you think. longer than 6 months may be pretty devastating and a very long recession.

time will tell. not sure if what I read is true but some experts are saying that this virus does not like heat which mean summer may be the end. Experts can be wrong. Isn't it summer in Austrailia right now?
 

olroadbeech

Happy Verified UPSer
Your theory is about as good as any.
landlords in my area are already giving a free months rent for people and businesses or significant discounts. they know most are in the same boat.

It depends on how long this crisis lasts. a couple months means a faster recovery. 3-6 months , several years like you think. longer than 6 months may be pretty devastating and a very long recession.

time will tell. not sure if what I read is true but some experts are saying that this virus does not like heat which mean summer may be the end. Experts can be wrong. Isn't it summer in Austrailia right now?
almost 5 million people in New Zealand where it is summer and 102 cases. so that negates the heat issue.
 
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