China's Evergrande Problem

vantexan

Well-Known Member
US stocks down 2%. Worse day on Wall Street since July. LOL. Oil is down 2% also.
We're down over 900 pts last I looked. The market isn't going to drop 50% or more in a day. The bubbles that have been building for some time however are going to take the stock, bond, and real estate markets severely downward if they burst. That's your 401k, your pension, your home's value, just about everything at risk. And there's no printing your way out of it. IF it happens may be looking at a severe 2 years to recovery, may be looking at 20.
 

PT Car Washer

Well-Known Member
They owe $300 billion including to a lot of foreign banks. No one knows just how many other Chinese companies are in trouble also. If the Chinese government bails them out they most likely won't bail out foreign investors. Evergrande is offering real estate to its investors at a discount instead of money. If enough investors take them up on it there will be billions worth of real estate flooding the Chinese market. It will cause their economy to collapse. That will have a domino effect around the world. This isn't a partisan political issue. We may be looking at a Great Depression scenario.
You come up with these "possible" Great Depression scenarios every couple months. Markets are only off 2 1/2% at the moment. No matter because I moved most of my assets away from volatile areas when I got close to retirement age. I did lose out on a lot of growth but don't have to worry about market crashes.
 

PT Car Washer

Well-Known Member
We're down over 900 pts last I looked. The market isn't going to drop 50% or more in a day. The bubbles that have been building for some time however are going to take the stock, bond, and real estate markets severely downward if they burst. That's your 401k, your pension, your home's value, just about everything at risk. And there's no printing your way out of it. IF it happens may be looking at a severe 2 years to recovery, may be looking at 20.
I have reduced most of my risks. I will be fine.
 

vantexan

Well-Known Member
You come up with these "possible" Great Depression scenarios every couple months. Markets are only off 2 1/2% at the moment. No matter because I moved most of my assets away from volatile areas when I got close to retirement age. I did lose out on a lot of growth but don't have to worry about market crashes.
It's been building for some time. About the worst thing the Biden administration could do is go spend another $5 Trillion. And I didn't come up with these scenarios. But very well respected major investors like Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers have been pointing out what's been going on and how these bubbles are all aligning at the same time for possibly the worst downturn in our lifetime. Sooner or later the bill comes due.
 

DELACROIX

In the Spirit of Honore' Daumier
They owe $300 billion including to a lot of foreign banks. No one knows just how many other Chinese companies are in trouble also. If the Chinese government bails them out they most likely won't bail out foreign investors. Evergrande is offering real estate to its investors at a discount instead of money. If enough investors take them up on it there will be billions worth of real estate flooding the Chinese market. It will cause their economy to collapse. That will have a domino effect around the world. This isn't a partisan political issue. We may be looking at a Great Depression scenario.

Anybody who invests in China is a fool..

Money goes in and will never return... without approval from the communist overlords...
 

vantexan

Well-Known Member
Anybody who invests in China is a fool..

Money goes in and will never return... without approval from the communist overlords...
Exactly what do you think has been going on for more than 30 years? Our country is heavily invested in Chinese manufacturing, and they're the single biggest buyer of our bonds. What do you think happens without foreign investment in our Treasury bonds to finance our spending? If there's a worldwide financial meltdown it'll require a lot of belt tightening here.
 

PT Car Washer

Well-Known Member
Exactly what do you think has been going on for more than 30 years? Our country is heavily invested in Chinese manufacturing, and they're the single biggest buyer of our bonds. What do you think happens without foreign investment in our Treasury bonds to finance our spending? If there's a worldwide financial meltdown it'll require a lot of belt tightening here.
Some are saying it is just an overdue correction. If it was that serious China will step in and stabilize their markets. China is heavily dependent on the US trade.
 

Babagounj

Strength through joy
China overbuilt their EV manufacturing capabilities, mostly by having local governments give out to many incentives.
Covid and money issues have lead to making many promised factories into empty parking lots.
 
W

WestCoastBrown

Guest
Big commercial real estate firm in China, Evergrande, has $300 billion in debt and is having serious difficulty servicing it. The Hong Kong stock exchange dropped 794 points today and has dropped thousands of points in the last couple of weeks. Banks from all over the world are heavily invested in Evergrande and this could start a liquidity crisis, a domino effect. Will be interesting to see how our stock exchanges do today. Bonds, stocks, real estate are all overpriced bubbles and this may be the catalyst that pops them. As in an eventual 50-70% drop, maybe more.
I doubt this will create a ripple effect. Most all countries are in agreement that China's markets/state news is something to always be skeptical of. China currently owns a significant amount of the trade-ports in the world via the belt and road initiative. They trap developing countries into debt. They have other assets at play here. I hate the CCP, but let us be realistic here. The only market that will really be a tall-tale sign of such a "bubble burst" as you are implying, would be here in the United States just like it usually does. Most all markets look to us and rally around us.

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vantexan

Well-Known Member
I doubt this will create a ripple effect. Most all countries are in agreement that China's markets/state news is something to always be skeptical of. China currently owns a significant amount of the trade-ports in the world via the belt and road initiative. They trap developing countries into debt. They have other assets at play here. I hate the CCP, but let us be realistic here. The only market that will really be a tall-tale sign of such a "bubble burst" as you are implying, would be here in the United States just like it usually does. Most all markets look to us and rally around us.

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Was just watching a video about this. Real estate investing is one of the few avenues that average Chinese have to increase their wealth. Evergrande was doing "pre-sales", selling units before they were even built. A lot of them. And usually in China one has to put down 50%. Only Evergrande didn't build many of these units after taking the money. A lot of people are getting burned. And China's local economy depends very much on real estate. And so far the CCP hasn't given any indication they're willing to bail Evergrande out. The fact is Evergrande and other Chinese companies were depending on continued high growth and have way overextended themselves. And it's catching up with them. Evergrande has a lot of bonds due for payment on Thursday and every indication is they will default on them. Evergrande appears to be China's Lehman Brothers, and if China's economy collapses it will very much ripple around the world. The U.S. economy is $19 Trillion a year. China's is $14 Trillion+ and growing. You can't have an economy that big collapse without it fouling up everything.
 

DELACROIX

In the Spirit of Honore' Daumier
Sounds like it is a “China” problem... you reap what you sow.

Bail out time...similar to the current 89 billion for the underfunded pension funds in the US.

The markets react accordingly, investors will see this as an opportunity to adjust their portfolios..sell, sell and then speculate when to get back into the markets. This gave an excuse for an market adjustment.

If you collect money from real estate sales without a viable product is basically fraud...this bank found a loophole or took advantage of China’s criminal laws dealing with corporate dealings. If China tries to pin this on the rest of the world it will only hurt them more, they are already in the dog house over their mishandling over their COVID viruses.
 
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