Operational needs
Virescit Vulnere Virtus
Yep what?
By Invitation Only
- Thread starter Brownslave688
- Start date
oldngray
nowhere special
Wally
BrownCafe Innovator & King of Puns
Operational needs
Virescit Vulnere Virtus
@Shifting Contents and @Orion inc. did you guys make out okay?
Big Arrow Down...D
Leave the gun,take the cannoli
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
What were they so wrong about?
Operational needs
Virescit Vulnere Virtus
I didn't say they were wrong, Wally did. I think they did a great job guessing but they have no way to know for sure what will happen. It's the weather and subject to change at anytime, as it did.
Operational needs
Virescit Vulnere Virtus
On second thought, they were wrong with the direction and the guessing the Category in different locations. Then again, as I said, they're guessing from what information they have.
FrigidFTSup
Resident Suit
I don't think people appreciate the complexity of forecasting. The computers they use to run the models are among the biggest and most powerful in the world, but it still takes 4 hours for it to spit out results.
Its a no win for the forecasters. Underestimate and people die, overestimate and people bitch.
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
A major hurricane effected the whole state of Florida. I'd say they did ok.
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
And a hurricane moves at under 20 mph often. The slightest wobble changes a ton when you're moving thousands of miles at 20 mph
Operational needs
Virescit Vulnere Virtus
I didn't have a problem with their forecasts. Better safe than sorry.
Brownslave688
You want a toe? I can get you a toe.
That's what made Andrew so bad. A few of the forecasts before it had been off and people didn't take it seriously.
Operational needs
Virescit Vulnere Virtus
Gotta love New Yorkers.
oldngray
nowhere special
Which is why there is a built in bias to be more pessimistic. The mindset is that its better to piss off people with gloom and doom than to underestimate.
The problem is people start to discount constant chicken little predictions.
Wally
BrownCafe Innovator & King of Puns
Life goes on.
FrigidFTSup
Resident Suit
The problem is people think that a 5 day forecast should be 100% accurate, which it isn't. The models are really designed to be 90% accurate to 3 days.
Not to mention people see the cone and think it's going right down the middle. That is the area where the eye wall can travel over the forecast period
FrigidFTSup
Resident Suit
Then that's their fault for not listening or caring.
