Manchin won't have to worry about re-election if he votes to weaken/kill the filibuster
Time. It takes time and repetition for people to understand. In this case all they need to be shown is that they aren’t weakening or killing anything.
And if Manchin allowing reconciliation to go forward by this interpretation brings a flood of new business and opportunities to West Virginia, well in that case the senator has done quite well by his constituents. And republicans will unleash a culture war against him but he’s faced that in every election.
And the reason I think this is all in play? Because Joe Manchin didn’t have to say anything. He could have been vague but he wasn’t. In fact he very publicly tee’d it up for all to see. He put the spotlight on himself. He made himself and his state a huge barometer. Win popularity for bill and win it in West Virginia and the bill will pass. Manchin isn’t an idiot. He knows senate rules and their interpretations change and he knows he’s in a make or break position. He’ll milk this one, but at the end of the day he’s still a politician.