Volume Up or Down with Covid19 ???

RealPerson

Well-Known Member
So I see the USPS is saying without Money from the gov. they will go under.
Just read that FedX is taking out a Loan and cut CEO pay.

In my building the Volume seems to be the same or a tad bit higher.

We actually have had an increase in Surepost..............

How is it for your Building or UPS in general???
 

PT Car Washer

Well-Known Member
Our volume is down slightly. But still up from just a few years ago. With a whole lot of $20/hr delivery drivers working the OT while top rate drivers are going home early.
 

Socrates

Well-Known Member
So an increase in low or negative profit packages and packages per stop!

UPS will be borrowing soon ... whether in bonds or from US National government is the question.
We make plenty of profit from Resis, just not as much as we get from delivering 75 packages to Target in one stop. The more people order to their door, the more routes we put out, the more dense the deliveries, the more money we make. There's no such thing as a center going from 30 routes to 60 routes, and losing money. It just doesn't work that way, especially with the rapid increase in 1DA/2DA deliveries.

Amazon likes to snatch away the density packages in metro areas, but Macys, Nordstrom, Target, Wal-Mart, etc, are giving us more than ever. Rural areas have always been a drag, but if we're able to put 3 routes out there instead of 2, or 6 routes instead of 4 in a smaller city, that's a good thing. Access Point makes it even better because we avoid the 2nd and 3rd trips.

The only non-profit situation for UPS would be some drivers only working 2-3 days per week, but still qualifying for Benefits, and to my knowledge that isn't happening. UPS avoided that in 2007-2012ish with a hiring freeze and keeping guys on the Layoff list, even as other guys were working 50+ per week. They could have easily let those guys work 2-3 days per week, but then they'd be on the hook for Health/Dental payments and Pension contributions.

UPS will be like Ford back when Chrysler and GM got bail-outs - they'll decline, not just to keep the stock price up, but because they don't need it. They'd have to be objectively stupid to not take 0% interest loans, but any kind of loans with preconditions, I think they say No.
 

Old Man Jingles

Rat out of a cage
We make plenty of profit from Resis, just not as much as we get from delivering 75 packages to Target in one stop. The more people order to their door, the more routes we put out, the more dense the deliveries, the more money we make. There's no such thing as a center going from 30 routes to 60 routes, and losing money. It just doesn't work that way, especially with the rapid increase in 1DA/2DA deliveries.

Amazon likes to snatch away the density packages in metro areas, but Macys, Nordstrom, Target, Wal-Mart, etc, are giving us more than ever. Rural areas have always been a drag, but if we're able to put 3 routes out there instead of 2, or 6 routes instead of 4 in a smaller city, that's a good thing. Access Point makes it even better because we avoid the 2nd and 3rd trips.

The only non-profit situation for UPS would be some drivers only working 2-3 days per week, but still qualifying for Benefits, and to my knowledge that isn't happening. UPS avoided that in 2007-2012ish with a hiring freeze and keeping guys on the Layoff list, even as other guys were working 50+ per week. They could have easily let those guys work 2-3 days per week, but then they'd be on the hook for Health/Dental payments and Pension contributions.

UPS will be like Ford back when Chrysler and GM got bail-outs - they'll decline, not just to keep the stock price up, but because they don't need it. They'd have to be objectively stupid to not take 0% interest loans, but any kind of loans with preconditions, I think they say No.
Plato approves of your logic!

I haven't sat in on any cost/revenue per package segmentation in almost 10 years so I can't argue ... back then small package residential deliveries were 2% and 3 % margins. Just like FedEx, UPS made most of their profit off on business-to-business at 12% - 20% margins.
 

Socrates

Well-Known Member
Plato approves of your logic!

I haven't sat in on any cost/revenue per package segmentation in almost 10 years so I can't argue ... back then small package residential deliveries were 2% and 3 % margins. Just like FedEx, UPS made most of their profit off on business-to-business at 12% - 20% margins.
I would certainly HOPE they didn't push the progression back to 4 years, along with hiring all these 22.4 drivers, just to have their margins be smaller and smaller and smaller, even with the drastic increase in highly-profitable Air and International shipments. That would represent a monumental failure in leadership which, fortunately, isn't borne out by UPS's most recent financials.

Revenue is definitely down, no doubt about it, along with profit. But UPS still has plenty of profit to go around. What FedEx and USPS are agitating for is 0% interest loans, rather than those companies having to go out into the market and pay 2-4% or more. "Why pay for something when you can get it for free", so to speak. But while this shutdown continues, people with means are buying more and more crap (furniture, video games, home fitness equipment, clothing, etc) and the people who aren't working are, let's face it, not the type that buy lots of crap anyways (movie theater workers, Casino workers, Handymen, etc) - they're the more impulsive types who want it RIGHT NOW, they can't wait for Next Day or Ground delivery.

Once the Tech industry starts laying off people by the thousands, THEN I'll be worried. But, then again, with more and more people working from home - and the onus we'll have in late 2020/early 2021 to KEEP many of those jobs remote, indefinitely - we'll need new technology, hardware/software and apps/websites, so I don't think tech jobs are going anywhere. For now. Transportation/Aerospace/Carmakers/etc are another question, they can't hold out much longer. Discretionary Cash industries like travel/tourism, entertainment parks, beauty salons, etc, are getting brutalized right now.
 

MyTripisCut

“They” are coming for us.
Plato approves of your logic!

I haven't sat in on any cost/revenue per package segmentation in almost 10 years so I can't argue ... back then small package residential deliveries were 2% and 3 % margins. Just like FedEx, UPS made most of their profit off on business-to-business at 12% - 20% margins.
I refuse to believe the notion that residential deliveries don’t make money. Why would this company put themselves through “peak season” every year if this were true. And they put their five times as high profit margin on the back burner for six weeks? Get outta town Holmes!
 

cachmeifucan

Well-Known Member
I'm sure our domestic packages have a small decline but world wide were probably taking a hit. With many workers calling off and using vacation the staffing seems low. We make our money off the bulk packages 70s + and irregular. And online. Amazon way up target way up Walmart way up
 

detmaintainer

Detroit Maintenance Rat
Ours is down but we have alot of routes with businesses that are shut down. They say lay offs are coming unless we have enough employees off/ on quarantine.
 

Jones

fILE A GRIEVE!
Staff member
They tried to talk layoffs but no one's buying it. Ran 93k on preload last week, had all the doghouses on and loading floor cars.
 
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