"Amazon Logistics now ships more than 2.5 billion packages a year in the U.S., while FedEx ships 3 billion and UPS delivers 4.7 billion, Morgan Stanley estimated. Amazon's deliveries will probably swell to 6.5 billion by 2022, for a cost of $10 a package, the analysts said. That represents a loss of $65 billion in revenue for UPS, FedEx and the U.S. Postal Service from Amazon's business, less if the company gets a discount.
Rival firms could lose as much as $35 billion more with the potential launch of Amazon's third-party service fulfilling orders from independent web companies that pay Amazon to handle time-consuming deliveries, Morgan Stanley said.
Overall, bank analysts predict Amazon Logistics will ship more U.S. packages than FedEx in 2020 and more than UPS in 2022."