First, a couple of points of clarification.... There are two seperate issues.
UPS believes that FedEx is illegally classifying employees as contractors. I've posted the IRS rules before, but generally if the company can direct the work being performed the person is an employuee. This includes includes methods, tools, work hours, etc.
From my perspective these IC's look like employees, act like employees, and from the public's perspective are represented as employees. If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck....
The second issue is that FedEx is the only express carrier giverned by the RLA for employees that have nothing to do with airline work. There is a resolution that just passed the house I think to change that classification.
Here is a quote from the Teamsters on that issue "Employees at FedEx Express who perform precisely the same work requiring the same skill sets are treated dramatically different under our labor laws and are subject to the Railway Labor Act even though they never touch an airplane," said hall, Teamsters International Vice President and Package Division Director. "Employees performing the same work, employed by companies that provide the same services, should have the same rights to organize a union."
So now to your question. ...
I think that if FedEx ground employees were no longer classified as IC's I think FedEx would immediately look to combine their air and ground networks. This will help offset the additional cost.
I think they will look to offset more cost by providing more performance controls similar to UPS.
If the reauthorization bill eventually passes to change their RLA classification, I think FedEx will go on an internal education campaign to convince their workers that they don't want to joing the union. They will tout their "best places to work" status and downplay any benefits of being a unionized.
P-Man