Obama the oil baron

unionman

Well-Known Member
Shorted oil from 110-130 levels to the 30's, Went long in the 40's . Closing half the position @ 90. The US consumes 25 barrels per person. China 2 per person. India .9 per person....How will the world keep up with demand? Fundamentally oil is going higher. It won't be a green back play any longer.

"Wall Street failed America," CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler told Mr. Cho. That comment could apply to countless aspects of the economy these days. "And Washington's regulatory system failed America. And if we don't fix it, it's going to happen again."
The essential similarities between the oil fiasco and the larger financial crisis are striking. Both episodes showed us the same cast of characters—Goldman Sachs, AIG and the rest—taking advantage of deregulation.
And the whole rotten thing was then defended by the same bunch of free-market wise men, who brushed off doubts with a condescending laugh and a snort of indignation. How little critics know about the fantastic complexities of markets. And how arrogant they are as they threaten our freedom to speculate.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052702303411604575168162988817630.html?mod=dist_smartbrief
 

tieguy

Banned
"Wall Street failed America," CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler told Mr. Cho. That comment could apply to countless aspects of the economy these days. "And Washington's regulatory system failed America. And if we don't fix it, it's going to happen again."
The essential similarities between the oil fiasco and the larger financial crisis are striking. Both episodes showed us the same cast of characters—Goldman Sachs, AIG and the rest—taking advantage of deregulation.
And the whole rotten thing was then defended by the same bunch of free-market wise men, who brushed off doubts with a condescending laugh and a snort of indignation. How little critics know about the fantastic complexities of markets. And how arrogant they are as they threaten our freedom to speculate.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052702303411604575168162988817630.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

this wall street article is much more interesting.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...169830444238658.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion

We have heard for months that the Democrats' election prospects would brighten once they pivot from health care to the economy. But that seems increasingly unlikely. The reason is simple: President Barack Obama overpromised on his stimulus package and then grossly underdelivered. That has caused public confidence in his ability to handle the economy to drop.
Of course, that hasn't stopped the administration from spinning. Take this past Sunday's media blitz in which White House advisers swarmed the morning talk programs. National Economic Council Director Larry Summers, for one, said on ABC's "This Week" that the most recent unemployment numbers ...
 

1989

Well-Known Member
Well, just 2 or 3 years ago, I thought the same with natural gas, esspecially when all of North America was in a housing boom. (more houses = more heat = more gas).
But, it tanked !
So, in my opinion, even though inventory says we have enough. Natural gas might be a better bet ??


I love coal, (we could never get rid of this filthy stuff) aluminum, and gaming right now...Patriot Coal, Century Aluminum, and Las Vegas Sands have been tearing it up.
 

1989

Well-Known Member
Look around....the inherited freefalling economy is improving, and can you really explain the difference between Liberal spending and Conservative spending. When was the last time you can honestly claim we had fiscal conservatives in the Whitehouse....

The free fall was over once TARP kicked in.
 

1989

Well-Known Member
1989, how high will oil go and will the Government step in if it goes above 100?

I think it will be over 100 by year end, but who really knows the future? The price we pay for oil is the same price the world pays. I can't see any steps the US government can take without the agreement of markets around the world.
 

tieguy

Banned
Look around....the inherited freefalling economy is improving, and can you really explain the difference between Liberal spending and Conservative spending. When was the last time you can honestly claim we had fiscal conservatives in the Whitehouse....

improving from what? at what cost?

unemployment improved thanks to census workers being hired. realistically most new job growth is government funded.

real estate market still sucks beyond the new home owner incentive being offered by the government.

money flow still tight.

companies reporting earnings are still reporting they have done a better job of cutting cost, very little growth above and beyond the normal bounce from last years economic thunk.

what will be the affect of the "health care reform" on hiring. companies are already lining up to announce warnings due to additional reform costs levied on them. Do you think these companies will reward us by now starting a hiring surge?

I hope you're right but I see very little that looks like real economic recovery that is not government financed.
 

unionman

Well-Known Member
I think it will be over 100 by year end, but who really knows the future? The price we pay for oil is the same price the world pays. I can't see any steps the US government can take without the agreement of markets around the world.

Its all speculation, just like the housing bubble. So we should just watch as a few make money at the expense of the world economy. Thats crazy, especially after it happened in another market and we know its coming.
 

wkmac

Well-Known Member
"Wall Street failed America," CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler told Mr. Cho. That comment could apply to countless aspects of the economy these days. "And Washington's regulatory system failed America. And if we don't fix it, it's going to happen again."
The essential similarities between the oil fiasco and the larger financial crisis are striking. Both episodes showed us the same cast of characters—Goldman Sachs, AIG and the rest—taking advantage of deregulation.
And the whole rotten thing was then defended by the same bunch of free-market wise men, who brushed off doubts with a condescending laugh and a snort of indignation. How little critics know about the fantastic complexities of markets. And how arrogant they are as they threaten our freedom to speculate.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052702303411604575168162988817630.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

Free market wise men! Free market with the key word being free has almost in use of terms such as above become as meaningless as the blanket charges of racism, socialism, communist, wing nut, right winger, et al as they are meaningless buzz words driven more for their effects as strawmen or red herrings. Their use rarely if ever have anything to do with real, intelligent and thoughtful conversation. Same here is true in the often used term free market as used by bothsides of the 2 party political construct and even variations of the political side projects. As Anna Morganstern at the above link asks in her way, what does free really mean? and the focus should be on that term and not the term market. You could ask, if there is a free market, is there an unfree market or what would an unfree market look like?

Unfree meaning restrictive in some form or fashion might mean that a marketplace is limited as to who can enter. That can be achieved by those in the marketplace already going to a entity whose job it is to regulate said marketplace to pass rules for market entry and the current market businesses support such overreaching regulation because it grants a type of protected cartel or monopoly in the form of captive customers. What restrictions would UPS agree to, even encourage if such restriction meant FedEx goes out of business and that customer base only can come to UPS? Same is true if you revese the roles of UPS and FedEx! Would either case be an action of the free market? If you were on the bad end of this deal and looking for a job, would you think it a free market? Would you think a gov't action well beyond any action good or bad done by your company in the market that forced you out of a job while benefiting the jobs of others was an action of a true free market? What if said gov't even taxed your unemployment or new job wages and took those tax dollars and gave them to the very competing business that benefitted from your earlier employment demise. Again, is that what you believe is definded by the term free market? If you think my example is way over the top then take a close look and talk to employees at both Goldman Sachs and now the defunct Lemen Bros. Who determined who won out and who lost longterm? Was it the market or was it another entity? If left to the free marketplace to decide, who would have won and lost?

Later, these same well connected companies through political connection do in fact obtain deregulation for themselves from such regulatory control but if one reads the law, one finds those same regulations are still in place to any new company that might try and enter that market place. True deregulation would mean all barriers come down, the agency abolished and the shelves and volumes of the US Code decrease in size.

To simplify, if a number of local farmers opened a small marketplace to sell their vegetables and buyers and sellers were free to buy, sell, enter or live the market place at will, I think most reasonable people would call that a free market. This is still a regulated market because the basic laws against thief and other type fraud apply but what if the farmers in the original market barred any more farmers from entering their market, would you still call that a true free market? What if these farmers got certain common law violations that result in criminal consequences to now be treated in another law arena created by gov't that limits liability especially in the threat of criminal sanctions of direct lost of property. If a customer enters said market and commits a fraud against the farmers, the customer will likely face criminal sanctions (arrest, imprisonment) but farmer (whose now a corp. fiction, State granted title) doesn't face like results in a like fraud so is this a true free market?

To those coming and going as customers, it may have the feel of a free market but are they being deprived the option of access to all possible goods available? If the customer could just go down the street and do business with the restricted farmer, it might not be to bad but what if those farmers in the original market could use a 3rd party who had the power of force to keep that other farmer from selling his vegetables altogether, would we still call all of this a free market? Ever hear of the lone vendor selling his wears in the public space whose forced out of business by the 3rd party enforcers because lone vendor doesn't comply with the market entry rules setup with the 3rd party as a means of cartelization of the surounding market players? Is this a free market?

What if times got bad, real bad, and the original farmers in the first marketplace went to the 3rd party who held the power of force and got them to go to each market customer, extract a said amount of money or take out a loan in the name of said market customers making them the debt holder and giving said monies to the market farmers who were in trouble. Is that free market? What if the outside market farmer was also in trouble but unlike the other farmers who got loans, this farmer was denied, he went bellyup and lost his farm and the surviving farmers were able to absorb his market share boosting their own profit bottomlines. Is that free market? Did these farmers sustain, profit and grow in a true fair and equal marketplace or did they benefit purely by virtue of priviledge and the welfare from others?

I find it interesting what so many on numerous sides of political and economic debate these days call "The Free Market" either in a badge of honor they wear or as a whipping boy to achieve some political advantage. Being your tag of unionman I'm sure you've heard the old saying that unions are not free market or anti-capitalism and to the capitalism part, that's likely true but in the case of free market, it is not true! This being true of a true free market, then what do we call a marketplace who sez the right to contract is a priviledge only extended to certain actors in the market, not to all actors in the market? Here's a goodie, can an individual actor make his/her own employment contract in the UPS employment marketplace or does a 3rd party enforcment entity (with union monopoly blessing) by law bar such actions? Is this true free market in the workplace? OOOpppppssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!! So much for the betterment of the worker, only if said worker buys our product.

I find it fascinating to hear people decry the free market and the evils and dangers of the free market, the need to protect the people from the evil doers in the free market. Yet, it's the "evil doers" who not only don't want a free market but encourages you at everypoint to resist knowing, undestanding and demanding a true free market because in such a marketplace, those very evil doers people always fret about but whose business models won't sustain because they are built on priviledge, advantage and manipulation of 3rd party intervention (Gov't) and without the coersion and force of gov't, they would likely not exist at all.

Now the real question, are you in fact one of those evil doers, the enslaver of others in order to manipulate the system for your own benefit because your way of life outside the use of force and coersion is not sustainable on it's own in a true free market?

Capitalism verses The Free Market
 

Blizzard

Well-Known Member
Consumer behavior shows recession is over

By Chris Isidore, senior writerApril 7, 2010: 11:21 AM ET

Some economists believe that means the labor market

Interesting The person who calculated this bit of information
went to high school in Pittsburgh , Pa. He is now & has been a
professor at The University of West Virginia in Morgantown, West
Virginia for the last forty some years.

Think of it this way:
A clunker that travels 12,000 miles a year at 15 mpg uses 800 gallons
of gas a year.
A vehicle that travels 12,000 miles a year at 25 mpg uses 480 gallons
a year.
So, the average Cash for Clunkers transaction will reduce US gasoline
consumption by 320 gallons per year.
They claim 700,000 vehicles so that's 224 million gallons saved per
year.
That equates to a bit over 5 million barrels of oil.
5 million barrels is about 5 hours worth of US consumption.
More importantly, 5 million barrels of oil at $70 per barrel costs
about $350 million dollars
So, the government paid $3 billion of our tax dollars to save $350
million.
We spent $8.57 for every dollar we saved.
I'm pretty sure they will do a great job with our health care,
though.
 

unionman

Well-Known Member
Interesting The person who calculated this bit of information
went to high school in Pittsburgh , Pa. He is now & has been a
professor at The University of West Virginia in Morgantown, West
Virginia for the last forty some years.

Think of it this way:
A clunker that travels 12,000 miles a year at 15 mpg uses 800 gallons
of gas a year.
A vehicle that travels 12,000 miles a year at 25 mpg uses 480 gallons
a year.
So, the average Cash for Clunkers transaction will reduce US gasoline
consumption by 320 gallons per year.
They claim 700,000 vehicles so that's 224 million gallons saved per
year.
That equates to a bit over 5 million barrels of oil.
5 million barrels is about 5 hours worth of US consumption.
More importantly, 5 million barrels of oil at $70 per barrel costs
about $350 million dollars
So, the government paid $3 billion of our tax dollars to save $350
million.
We spent $8.57 for every dollar we saved.
I'm pretty sure they will do a great job with our health care,
though.

And the car factories and every other company ( parts suppliers) did not have anything to do with putting people to work?
 

1989

Well-Known Member
Retail tripled expectations in stores like aeropostal. We will see which way the market goes.

7.9 million Americans are not paying their mortgages. More than 1.1 million loans that were current at the beginning of January 2010 were already at least 30 days delinquent or in foreclosure by February 2010 month-end. Paul Jackson, publisher of Housingwire.com, wrote a fascinating article last week that put this into real cash perspective. He cites an older stat of 7.4 million delinquent loans, but you'll get the picture.

First he describes a case study of someone who applied for the government's Home Affordable Modification Program.
The person had an $1,880.00 monthly mortgage payment on which they'd defaulted, but said person's monthly bank statement showed payments to a tanning salon, nail spa, liquor stores, DirecTV bill with premium charges, and $1,700.00 in retail purchases from The Gap, Old Navy, Home Depot, Sears, etc.
Writes Jackson:
Even if you assume that just half of the current 7.4 million currently delinquent mortgages fit this sort of ’spending profile’ (that is, they are spending their mortgage) and you assume a $1,000 median monthly mortgage payment for most U.S. homeowners — you get a $3.7 billion boost per month to consumer spending. It’s certainly enough spending to matter in the overall scheme of things.

Even if you assume that just half of the current 7.4 million currently delinquent mortgages fit this sort of ’spending profile’ (that is, they are spending their mortgage) and you assume a $1,000 median monthly mortgage payment for most U.S. homeowners — you get a $3.7 billion boost per month to consumer spending. It’s certainly enough spending to matter in the overall scheme of things.
 

unionman

Well-Known Member
7.9 million Americans are not paying their mortgages. More than 1.1 million loans that were current at the beginning of January 2010 were already at least 30 days delinquent or in foreclosure by February 2010 month-end. Paul Jackson, publisher of Housingwire.com, wrote a fascinating article last week that put this into real cash perspective. He cites an older stat of 7.4 million delinquent loans, but you'll get the picture.

First he describes a case study of someone who applied for the government's Home Affordable Modification Program.
The person had an $1,880.00 monthly mortgage payment on which they'd defaulted, but said person's monthly bank statement showed payments to a tanning salon, nail spa, liquor stores, DirecTV bill with premium charges, and $1,700.00 in retail purchases from The Gap, Old Navy, Home Depot, Sears, etc.
Writes Jackson:
Even if you assume that just half of the current 7.4 million currently delinquent mortgages fit this sort of ’spending profile’ (that is, they are spending their mortgage) and you assume a $1,000 median monthly mortgage payment for most U.S. homeowners — you get a $3.7 billion boost per month to consumer spending. It’s certainly enough spending to matter in the overall scheme of things.

Even if you assume that just half of the current 7.4 million currently delinquent mortgages fit this sort of ’spending profile’ (that is, they are spending their mortgage) and you assume a $1,000 median monthly mortgage payment for most U.S. homeowners — you get a $3.7 billion boost per month to consumer spending. It’s certainly enough spending to matter in the overall scheme of things.

This could be a very big problem because there are trillions of dollars in bad loans and nobody really knows how this will shake out. California ill be the big test because tht state is still out of control and speculators are very much still doing the same things that started this mess.
 

Lue C Fur

Evil member
First he describes a case study of someone who applied for the government's Home Affordable Modification Program.
The person had an $1,880.00 monthly mortgage payment on which they'd defaulted, but said person's monthly bank statement showed payments to a tanning salon, nail spa, liquor stores, DirecTV bill with premium charges, and $1,700.00 in retail purchases from The Gap, Old Navy, Home Depot, Sears, etc. [/I]

If someone applys for our tax dollars to bail them out then they should first have their spending habits reviewed beforehand. This is a major problem with society...taking responsibility for your actions. If someone was not there to bail you out everytime you screwed up i bet more people would not have these problems. When you know someone will be there to catch you when you fall then you take more risks.
 

UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)

Well-Known Member
If someone applys for our tax dollars to bail them out then they should first have their spending habits reviewed beforehand. This is a major problem with society...taking responsibility for your actions. If someone was not there to bail you out everytime you screwed up i bet more people would not have these problems. When you know someone will be there to catch you when you fall then you take more risks.

When my brother and I were going through the Medicaid application process for our late father they were very thorough. They wanted tax returns, bank statements, etc. They had set limits on what assets you could have and still be eligible. Using that application process for anyone seeking assistance would certainly weed out those who clearly do not need assistance.
 

Babagounj

Strength through joy
When my brother and I were going through the Medicaid application process for our late father they were very thorough. They wanted tax returns, bank statements, etc. They had set limits on what assets you could have and still be eligible. Using that application process for anyone seeking assistance would certainly weed out those who clearly do not need assistance.

There you go and apply good common sense to a simple problem.
Unfortunately in this new world order, we have to call you a racist.
Because it would be immoral to ask a non-citizen to subject themselves to such a process.
 
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