FedEx stock is crashing and burning. What do you think the future will be?

[Fred's Myth]

Not advice, just passing on what pro traders are saying which is more than what you have been offering. So get back to me in 18 months and we'll see where they are . In the meantime I'm sure pro traders are asking themselves if the stock is even worth 147 let alone it's all time high of 278.

Unlike some other poster on this site (recognize anyone?), I don't pretend to prophecy the future.

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

When we (UPS) lost the TNT I thought that it would really hurt us----turns out to have been a blessing in disguise.

 

[TTLS1]

I more concerned what happens to UPS , what are your thoughts there?

I used to share this same sentiment, I have come to a few conclusions here. We(ups) changed for small packages, sure they aren’t as profitable but stop density as they call it, that’s what’s important. UPS seemed to be more willing to accept the small less profitable packages before fedex did. Amazon while they are becoming a shipping company, is only delivering their own packages, the Wall Street types keep banging the drum that they are gonna put us out of business. I don’t believe it, amazon competitors aren’t going to put their on amazons trucks, it’s that simple. Amazon is severely data driven, if I’m target or Walmart or whoever, I wouldn’t want my competitor seeing how many pieces I’m buying/shipping, who it’s coming from etc. amazon would take that data and try to get a better deal from the manufacturer I’m buying from and then hurt my business. While I don’t doubt amazons power, I believe there is a lot of smoke and mirrors in their business. We(UPS) own everything we have(almost), amazon, it’s all leases! Their planes, their trucks, their warehouses all leases!! Owning all our stuff allows us to offer cheaper prices(if we have to). E commerce isn’t going away, we aren’t going away, FedEx isn’t either. There’s more than enough room for a 3rd shipped albeit a ty one. I do hope we cut ties with them eventually though. It sucks we and fedex created this monster, but I still feel we are better at shipping. The only reason amazon can offer same and next day delivery is because they put a warehouse so close to everyone. Shopify is the next big thing imo, they aren’t a market place simply a warehouse company that helps e commerce, If you got time look them up and read about them. I bet we get on that train(if we are smart we will)

 

[TTLS1]

When we (UPS) lost the TNT I thought that it would really hurt us----turns out to have been a blessing in disguise.

Man ain’t that the truth!! But at the same time nothing against FDX but I think we coulda integrated it into our system much better than FDX did. Regardless I think we still got paid for the deal falling through.

 

[vantexan]

I used to share this same sentiment, I have come to a few conclusions here. We(ups) changed for small packages, sure they aren’t as profitable but stop density as they call it, that’s what’s important. UPS seemed to be more willing to accept the small less profitable packages before fedex did. Amazon while they are becoming a shipping company, is only delivering their own packages, the Wall Street types keep banging the drum that they are gonna put us out of business. I don’t believe it, amazon competitors aren’t going to put their on amazons trucks, it’s that simple. Amazon is severely data driven, if I’m target or Walmart or whoever, I wouldn’t want my competitor seeing how many pieces I’m buying/shipping, who it’s coming from etc. amazon would take that data and try to get a better deal from the manufacturer I’m buying from and then hurt my business. While I don’t doubt amazons power, I believe there is a lot of smoke and mirrors in their business. We(UPS) own everything we have(almost), amazon, it’s all leases! Their planes, their trucks, their warehouses all leases!! Owning all our stuff allows us to offer cheaper prices(if we have to). E commerce isn’t going away, we aren’t going away, FedEx isn’t either. There’s more than enough room for a 3rd shipped albeit a ty one. I do hope we cut ties with them eventually though. It sucks we and fedex created this monster, but I still feel we are better at shipping. The only reason amazon can offer same and next day delivery is because they put a warehouse so close to everyone. Shopify is the next big thing imo, they aren’t a market place simply a warehouse company that helps e commerce, If you got time look them up and read about them. I bet we get on that train(if we are smart we will)

Who are Amazon's competitors that would put their freight on Amazon trucks? Walmart? Amazon too is a warehouse that helps e-commerce. They have very few products that they have an Amazon brand name on it. The assumption by FedEx and UPS was that companies, no matter how big such as Walmart, would always turn to the shipping experts to get their freight moved. They never counted on a giant company that doesn't have brick and mortar stores but ships everything figuring out they could increase profits by cutting out the middlemen and doing it themselves.

 

[TTLS1]

Who are Amazon's competitors that would put their freight on Amazon trucks? Walmart? Amazon too is a warehouse that helps e-commerce. They have very few products that they have an Amazon brand name on it. The assumption by FedEx and UPS was that companies, no matter how big such as Walmart, would always turn to the shipping experts to get their freight moved. They never counted on a giant company that doesn't have brick and mortar stores but ships everything figuring out they could increase profits by cutting out the middlemen and doing it themselves.

I was saying none of their competitors would ship their stuff on an amazon truck.

 

[Indecisi0n]

.....FedUp

 

[vantexan]

I was saying none of their competitors would ship their stuff on an amazon truck.

And who would that be?

 

[TTLS1]

And who would that be?

Who are their competitors? Walmart and target come to mind

 

[59 Dano]

If business slows down, Bezos severs ties with Atlas Air or simply leases fewer planes. He also would subsidize fewer new delivery subcontractors. In other words, he has created a very flexible business model that the other carriers cannot duplicate.

And in the process he sends a message to potential suitors that he'll kick them to the curb without giving it a second thought if he thinks it's costing him too much money. You seem to think that he can simply operate under whatever terms he desires.

As it stands now, he isn't costing FedEx a dime and he's having issues with his low budget flight contractors. Not that it matters to me because he's more than welcome to deliver his own product if that's his thing.

 

[59 Dano]

So the combined issued of that TNT merger along with Amazon competition is really squeezing FedEx now.

Amazon isn't a competitor.

 

[59 Dano]

Spoke with a former manager at the distribution centre here and he said the place is a sweatshop and they can't keep people more than a few weeks at a time because the pay sucks and they expect people to haul ass every second you're in the facility.

If Amazon plans on taking on FedEx, UPS and Purolator, they have a long way to go. If FedEx can't keep people because of the wages they offer, what makes people think Amazon will when their wages are even less than that of FedEx?

Exactly. People seem to forget this. The job is worse than working for a Ground contractor and everyone thinks that somehow it's going to become this wildly successful juggernaut.

 

[59 Dano]

Not advice, just passing on what pro traders are saying which is more than what you have been offering. So get back to me in 18 months and we'll see where they are . In the meantime I'm sure pro traders are asking themselves if the stock is even worth 147 let alone it's all time high of 278.

You're aware that the opinions of pro traders are as varied and wide ranging as the opinions of novices, aren't you?

 

[bacha29]

You're aware that the opinions of pro traders are as varied and wide ranging as the opinions of novices, aren't you?

Then you must think that the stock will test new lows. I'm saying that it will stay range bound in that 140-160 range. On the other hand I grabbed a few more shares of Atlas Atlas Air (AAWW) not due as much to the fact that Bezos is considering taking a small ownership share but rather due to the fact that it's trading at very favorable 3X earnings along with being well off it 52 week high.......I'll roll the dice on those numbers.

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

Then you must think that the stock will test new lows. I'm saying that it will stay range bound in that 140-160 range. On the other hand I grabbed a few more shares of Atlas Atlas Air (AAWW) not due as much to the fact that Bezos is considering taking a small ownership share but rather due to the fact that it's trading at very favorable 3X earnings along with being well off it 52 week high.......I'll roll the dice on those numbers.

Insider trading?

 

[bacha29]

Insider trading?

It's all PUBLIC information.

 

[MrFedEx]

Unlike some other poster on this site (recognize anyone?), I don't pretend to prophecy the future.

Bezos Express, When It Absolutely, Positively, Really Needs To Be There On Time".

 

[59 Dano]

Then you must think that the stock will test new lows. I'm saying that it will stay range bound in that 140-160 range. On the other hand I grabbed a few more shares of Atlas Atlas Air (AAWW) not due as much to the fact that Bezos is considering taking a small ownership share but rather due to the fact that it's trading at very favorable 3X earnings along with being well off it 52 week high.......I'll roll the dice on those numbers.

Do you really think it's wise for a guy like you to be dabbling in that?

 

[bacha29]

Do you really think it's wise for a guy like you to be dabbling in that?

Been trading stocks since 1978. Watching the action today in RVLV BA OLLI and TJX. among others Just because your Mom doesn't allow you to do it anymore after your efforts at it resulted in her home being foreclosed it doesn't mean that others can't have a little bit of success. I don't play the short game, buy on margin or trade options. I simply look for lower prices good balance sheets and hope that I can land in the right sector rotation.

 

[59 Dano]

Been trading stocks since 1978. Watching the action today in RVLV BA OLLI and TJX. among others Just because your Mom doesn't allow you to do it anymore after your efforts at it resulted in her home being foreclosed it doesn't mean that others can't have a little bit of success. I don't play the short game, buy on margin or trade options. I simply look for lower prices good balance sheets and hope that I can land in the right sector rotation.

Oh, I know that people have success at it. It's just entertaining to imagine that someone whose logic and reasoning playing in it. Why not try a casino or the sports book? You sound like some of the sports betting clowns who babble all sorts of metrics and don't fare any better than casual bettors.