FEDEX losing Amazon business NOW?

bacha29

Well-Known Member
heres a few youtube clips, on what these "Flex" people go through...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rXmHT4yADo
Doing commercial delivery work out of your personal vehicle is a great way to get your private vehicle insurance cancelled. State Farm insures everything I've got and when I asked them about this little caper they made it very clear......If we catch you doing this we will cancel your policy immediately and prosecute. if you are in a wreck doing this and try to file we will deny the claim and prosecute...... Why? it's just another form of insurance fraud.
 

dmac1

Well-Known Member
In some cases, you might be covered by the employers policy. Definitely a concern. Out of high school, I worked for pizza hut using my own car, and it was made clear that I was covered by them while on duty.

And when I started with fedex HD, I had to carry personal insurance on a vehicle used as a supplemental when I wasn't on duty. I occasionally used a short GMC cargo van when my drivers had too much. Supposedly covered while on duty- I vaguely remember an extra charge on my settlement for days I used it.
 

vantexan

Well-Known Member
Yeah, FedEx will crash and burn if they lose that 1.3% of their revenue that comes from Amazon.
According to an article on cnbc.com dated 2/15 Amazon is handling 26% of it's own deliveries now. An analyst at Morgan Stanley said they estimate UPS and FedEx would both have 2% more revenue if Amazon Air didn't exist at all. As Amazon continues to expand it will cut into FedEx revenue. Not taking them seriously is akin to people shouting at early cars to get a horse. Not saying they will takeover the shipping world. Just saying for FedEx to maintain profits they now enjoy they can't afford to lose revenue. Especially in the primary U.S. market that FredSmith calls saturated. And when FedEx profits go down their modus operandi is to take it from the employees.
 

59 Dano

I just want to make friends!
According to an article on cnbc.com dated 2/15 Amazon is handling 26% of it's own deliveries now. An analyst at Morgan Stanley said they estimate UPS and FedEx would both have 2% more revenue if Amazon Air didn't exist at all.

An estimate of 2%! The horror!

As Amazon continues to expand it will cut into FedEx revenue. Not taking them seriously is akin to people shouting at early cars to get a horse.

Horrible analogy. People back then were laughing at technology because they didn't understand it and compared it to the technology (primitive as it was) that they understood. FedEx/Amazon isn't a case of one technology vs the other. They're doing the same thing and using the same technology. It's a case of one trying to compete with the other on a cost basis.

Not saying they will takeover the shipping world. Just saying for FedEx to maintain profits they now enjoy they can't afford to lose revenue. Especially in the primary U.S. market that FredSmith calls saturated. And when FedEx profits go down their modus operandi is to take it from the employees.

Yet despite Amazon taking that massive 2% of revenue from FedEx, volume and revenue are both up. Our region (southern) is showing a YoY increase of over 20%.
 

XEQaF

Well-Known Member
An estimate of 2%! The horror!



Horrible analogy. People back then were laughing at technology because they didn't understand it and compared it to the technology (primitive as it was) that they understood. FedEx/Amazon isn't a case of one technology vs the other. They're doing the same thing and using the same technology. It's a case of one trying to compete with the other on a cost basis.



Yet despite Amazon taking that massive 2% of revenue from FedEx, volume and revenue are both up. Our region (southern) is showing a YoY increase of over 20%.

Thank God you came to save this thread! I was hoping for your divine intervention to make sure the sheep don't herd themselves!
 

vantexan

Well-Known Member
An estimate of 2%! The horror!



Horrible analogy. People back then were laughing at technology because they didn't understand it and compared it to the technology (primitive as it was) that they understood. FedEx/Amazon isn't a case of one technology vs the other. They're doing the same thing and using the same technology. It's a case of one trying to compete with the other on a cost basis.



Yet despite Amazon taking that massive 2% of revenue from FedEx, volume and revenue are both up. Our region (southern) is showing a YoY increase of over 20%.
If you noticed, they're delivering 26% of their OWN freight, and FedEx total revenue is down 2%. So how much will FedEx revenue be down when they've grown enough to deliver all of their freight? How much will it be down when they decide to become a competitor for more than just their own freight? FedEx didn't destroy UPS. But both companies have demonstrated they can coexist and be profitable. Are you saying a well financed company that builds a comparable infrastructure, makes the right moves, can't come in and compete for those profits? And if they do, and are successful, how will FedEx respond to maintain profits? You can bet it'll take from it's employees at some point because they put profit above all else. Won't happen next year, but the way Amazon is growing don't be surprised if it's within the next 10. They may end up being to this industry and many others what Wal-Mart was to countless competitors.
 

TNT Frosty

Well-Known Member
What % of FEDEX gross revenue is profit? I've heard that some industries have net profits of about 2% of gross revenue.

Dont know where the 2% is coming from.. but... (God this is alot to read, but I thought I did do a "dumb down" version) (This is from our annual report from 2017 to 2018 and is a lovely 94 page document)



FedEx Gross income.png


FedEx Expenses.png
 

bacha29

Well-Known Member
As long a Grounds operating margins remain double that of the other OPCO's......all is well......And to think Fat Freddy had to buy RPS with stock because he didn't have the cash and chances are if he wasn't able to buy it ahead of the Great Recession he might just have found himself today working for the new owners.
 

Artee

Well-Known Member
Like was stated, Amazon is 3% of FDX business. There are companies that are looking to increase what they ship and fill that void should Amazon bail on FDX. Many of you are assuming that once Amazon leaves, FedEx will have less volume therefore less money. Nope. It will be taken up with others and maybe at an even higher profit margin than what we were giving Amazon.
 

dmac1

Well-Known Member
Very cursory, untrained look at the revenue/profit figures posted gave me a guesstimate of fedexprofit being 7.5% of revenue across all divisions. IF expenses didn't drop with a 2% drop in revenue, it would ALL come out of profit. But of course, expenses would drop with the loss of Amazon. BUT so would overall profit. Fedex might retain more profitable customers, and have a higher RATE of return, but overall, profit would be down, unless FEDEX is taking a loss on Amazon, which is doubtful. So the net result will still be a drop in share value.

It looks like roughly if fedex loses 2% of revenue, it will lose at least 0.14% of profit and if you project that Amazon delivers all their own packages in the future, fedex could lose ~0.5% of profit. This is all VERY rough, varying depending on the differing rates of return on ground vs express. If the majority of Amazon is delivered by the division with the highest rate of return, then the loss could be quite a bit higher.
 

Spam

Well-Known Member
Like was stated, Amazon is 3% of FDX business. There are companies that are looking to increase what they ship and fill that void should Amazon bail on FDX. Many of you are assuming that once Amazon leaves, FedEx will have less volume therefore less money. Nope. It will be taken up with others and maybe at an even higher profit margin than what we were giving Amazon.
Someone that actually knows what their talking about.
 

59 Dano

I just want to make friends!
If you noticed, they're delivering 26% of their OWN freight, and FedEx total revenue is down 2%. So how much will FedEx revenue be down when they've grown enough to deliver all of their freight?

FedEx revenue isn't down 2%. They said that it (and that of UPS) would be 2% higher if Amazon Air didn't exist.

How much will it be down when they decide to become a competitor for more than just their own freight? FedEx didn't destroy UPS. But both companies have demonstrated they can coexist and be profitable. Are you saying a well financed company that builds a comparable infrastructure, makes the right moves, can't come in and compete for those profits?

Anyone can come in and compete, regardless of infrastructure and so on. Lasership competes. DHL competes. They've got little niche markets and I'm sure there are customers who love them.

And if they do, and are successful, how will FedEx respond to maintain profits? You can bet it'll take from it's employees at some point because they put profit above all else. Won't happen next year, but the way Amazon is growing don't be surprised if it's within the next 10. They may end up being to this industry and many others what Wal-Mart was to countless competitors.

The odds are against it and that's another horrible analogy.

Walmart wasn't unique other than the fact that it used a tremendous buying power to purchase the same goods as their competitors at a significantly lower cost, sell them for less in stores that had a greater variety, and pay their employees more.

What's special about Amazon Air? It isn't doing anything that isn't already being done, nor is it doing anything differently than is already being done.
 

vantexan

Well-Known Member
FedEx revenue isn't down 2%. They said that it (and that of UPS) would be 2% higher if Amazon Air didn't exist.



Anyone can come in and compete, regardless of infrastructure and so on. Lasership competes. DHL competes. They've got little niche markets and I'm sure there are customers who love them.



The odds are against it and that's another horrible analogy.

Walmart wasn't unique other than the fact that it used a tremendous buying power to purchase the same goods as their competitors at a significantly lower cost, sell them for less in stores that had a greater variety, and pay their employees more.

What's special about Amazon Air? It isn't doing anything that isn't already being done, nor is it doing anything differently than is already being done.
I could have worded it differently, but FedEx revenue would be up 2% if Amazon Air didn't exist. When Amazon Air is delivering most of their own freight, if not all, it'll be noticed. I think they're going about it more pragmatically than DHL did. And if they do move in to compete with FedEx it'll be more than a little niche market, a little boutique business. In no way am I saying they will run FedEx out of business. But they may take enough away that FedEx will look for ways to enhance profit. I don't know why anyone familiar with FedEx would think that FedEx wouldn't touch employee pay and benefits. Certainly have in the past.
 

Fred's Myth

Nonhyphenated American
Walmart wasn't unique other than the fact that it used a tremendous buying power to purchase the same goods as their competitors at a significantly lower cost, sell them for less in stores that had a greater variety, and pay their employees more.
Wal-mart's success wasn't simply due to its buying power (not unique), or that they discounted their prices (not unique), but that their competitive advantage lay in the recognition that warehousing products for any length of time negatively impacted their bottom line. They perfected the system of NOT warehousing merchandise, but utilizing warehouses as merchandise distribution centers. They keep their inventory in transit and out of the warehouse as much as possible.

Walmart’s Inventory Management - Panmore Institute

They have also perfected the art of contracting with small suppliers, forcing them to expand to keep Wal-Mart's business, then strong-arming them with the threat of losing that business if they don't lower their prices.
 
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