FedEx stock performance

[bbsam]

He asked what I think EXPRESS should do.

Anyway, for the corporation as a whole, I go back to what I know to be consistently true: it's never as good or bad as the herd says it is. And currently the herd is screaming until the veins pop out of their collective heads that catastrophe awaits.

Seems kind of a silly response. Management has clearly ignored the warnings of contractors and couriers for months. They drastically miss earnings and you say, “It’s probably not all that bad.”

Yeah. Ok.

 

[59 Dano]

Seems kind of a silly response. Management has clearly ignored the warnings of contractors and couriers for months. They drastically miss earnings and you say, “It’s probably not all that bad.”

Yeah. Ok.

I didn't say it's not all that bad, I said it's not as bad as the herd is screaming.

This board is 0-for-everything in supposed prescient claims of doom, but I'll give you first dibs on telling me "I told you so" when the company ceases operations any day now.

 

[It will be fine]

I didn't say it's not all that bad, I said it's not as bad as the herd is screaming.

This board is 0-for-everything in supposed prescient claims of doom, but I'll give you first dibs on telling me "I told you so" when the company ceases operations any day now.

How much does the stock need to drop to concern you? If ~25% within a few days isn’t an alarm bell, what would be?

 

[59 Dano]

How much does the stock need to drop to concern you? If ~25% within a few days isn’t an alarm bell, what would be?

The alarm bell is that the recession is about to get worse, but it can (and probably will) mean whatever you want it to mean. There was a similar drop in 2019. I don't remember what the board experts decided once they circled the wagons and commenced the groupthink, but I'm sure it was dire and accompanied by predictions that we'd be bought by Amazon or Walmart and then quickly forgotten shortly thereafter as they decided on something else to overreact to.

You get to be #2 behind bbsam when we cease operations in a few weeks.

 

[Serf]

About what?

The innovations are copy cat, the problems are the same from late 2018, early 2019. The staff is America’s lowest hanging fruit. The trucks break down daily. The stock price plummets 1/4. What do you think Express should do?

 

[yadig]

The innovations are copy cat, the problems are the same from late 2018, early 2019. The staff is America’s lowest hanging fruit. The trucks break down daily. The stock price plummets 1/4. What do you think Express should do?

Dano will never answer the question

 

[bbsam]

I didn't say it's not all that bad, I said it's not as bad as the herd is screaming.

This board is 0-for-everything in supposed prescient claims of doom, but I'll give you first dibs on telling me "I told you so" when the company ceases operations any day now.

Ceases operations? Now you sound like bacha.

 

[It will be fine]

The alarm bell is that the recession is about to get worse, but it can (and probably will) mean whatever you want it to mean. There was a similar drop in 2019. I don't remember what the board experts decided once they circled the wagons and commenced the groupthink, but I'm sure it was dire and accompanied by predictions that we'd be bought by Amazon or Walmart and then quickly forgotten shortly thereafter as they decided on something else to overreact to.

You get to be #2 behind bbsam when we cease operations in a few weeks.

So in your mind as long as the company still exists everything is ok. There are no problems that need to be addressed. The only issue is the macro economic outlook.

This is why you don’t have a reputation for honesty on this board.

 

[bacha29]

Ceases operations? Now you sound like bacha.

The problem you contractors are having is that you're torn between opposing forces. You don't want the company to cease operations but you want a much improved deal. You want an improved deal but you don't have the power to get it. You don't like the attitude Johnny Dollar Sign has toward you contractors but you're beholding to him. You would like to get out but you missed the most favorable opportunity to do so.

You're inclined to want to button down the hatches and go into an economic survival mode but you don't know if you can hold out long enough for it to get better and given the steep and potentially long term recession you don't know if it will ever get any better.

 

[bbsam]

The problem you contractors are having is that you're torn between opposing forces. You don't want the company to cease operations but you want a much improved deal. You want an improved deal but you don't have the power to get it. You don't like the attitude Johnny Dollar Sign has toward you contractors but you're beholding to him. You would like to get out but you missed the most favorable opportunity to do so.

You're inclined to want to button down the hatches and go into an economic survival mode but you don't know if you can hold out long enough for it to get better and given the steep and potentially long term recession you don't know if it will ever get any better.

I don’t think you understand at all.

Who believes FedEx is going to cease operations let alone want them to?

I don’t know of anyone who cares one way or another what John Smith thinks. The guy is a joke and an embarrassing one at that.

At least around here, there is zero fear of letting routes sit. Zero fear of having contracts terminated.

This is all Fedex’s mess. It’s the path the eagerly ran down when they cheerfully announced the 52% dividend increase in June. One way or another, they will either fix it or they won’t. If they do and the money is good, I’ll gladly keep doing it. If it’s bad, I’ll do the minimum required to be profitable, cash the ERC checks, sell the trucks and walk away.

It’s not that hard to figure it out as soon as you accept the fact that we aren’t in a battle trying to destroy a company.

 

[bacha29]

I don’t think you understand at all.

Who believes FedEx is going to cease operations let alone want them to?

I don’t know of anyone who cares one way or another what John Smith thinks. The guy is a joke and an embarrassing one at that.

At least around here, there is zero fear of letting routes sit. Zero fear of having contracts terminated.

This is all Fedex’s mess. It’s the path the eagerly ran down when they cheerfully announced the 52% dividend increase in June. One way or another, they will either fix it or they won’t. If they do and the money is good, I’ll gladly keep doing it. If it’s bad, I’ll do the minimum required to be profitable, cash the ERC checks, sell the trucks and walk away.

It’s not that hard to figure it out as soon as you accept the fact that we aren’t in a battle trying to destroy a company.

I said you weren't interested in destroying the company but whatever path the board and executive management takes there ain't a damn thing you personally can do about it but to respond in the manner that will best serve your interests.

Once again it still comes back to the original offer....."Here's the load.....Here's what it pays.....Do you want it or don't you....The choice is yours".

 

[bbsam]

I said you weren't interested in destroying the company but whatever path the board and executive management takes there ain't a damn thing you personally can do about it but to respond in the manner that will best serve your interests.

Once again it still comes back to the original offer....."Here's the load.....Here's what it pays.....Do you want it or don't you....The choice is yours".

That’s not how my last negotiation went.

 

[bacha29]

That’s not how my last negotiation went.

Yeah, right.

 

[bbsam]

Yeah, right.

So you believe that I’m still here losing $20k per month after depleting every bit of life savings?

Yeah. Ok.

 

[bacha29]

So you believe that I’m still here losing $20k per month after depleting every bit of life savings?

Yeah. Ok.

So on what specific date did you leave? You've been telling us you're leaving since last spring.

 

[bbsam]

So on what specific date did you leave? You've been telling us you're leaving since last spring.

Correct. Because in negotiations it became clear that it was worth staying.

There’s an old saying: “Negotiations begin when somebody says ‘No’.”

 

[bacha29]

Correct. Because in negotiations it became clear that it was worth staying.

There’s an old saying: “Negotiations begin when somebody says ‘No’.”

I figured you were just another Hotel California....You can checkout any time you like....but you can never leave.

 

[bbsam]

I figured you were just another Hotel California....You can checkout any time you like....but you can never leave.

Nah. I’m perfectly ordinary. A very average to possibly subpar businessman. My name
Is well known throughout the district conference calls for all the wrong reasons. So why am I still here?

Because that’s the market for contractors that they’ve created. They don’t have hundreds of contractor candidates with several hundred thousand dollars lined up ready to bring in brand new trucks and a well paid workforce. They don’t have a multitude of contractors from other buildings looking to expand into other buildings. So here I am.

Will any of that change? Maybe. I know my operation has gotten significantly better with better compensation. Maybe contracting will become profitable again and my position will go to a better contractor.

 

[bacha29]

Nah. I’m perfectly ordinary. A very average to possibly subpar businessman. My name
Is well known throughout the district conference calls for all the wrong reasons. So why am I still here?

Because that’s the market for contractors that they’ve created. They don’t have hundreds of contractor candidates with several hundred thousand dollars lined up ready to bring in brand new trucks and a well paid workforce. They don’t have a multitude of contractors from other buildings looking to expand into other buildings. So here I am.

Will any of that change? Maybe. I know my operation has gotten significantly better with better compensation. Maybe contracting will become profitable again and my position will go to a better contractor.

If you're waiting for a brighter tomorrow then you are definitely a Hotel California contractor alright as the stock fell another 4+% to another 52 week low along with the S&P500.

 

[bbsam]

If you're waiting for a brighter tomorrow then you are definitely a Hotel California contractor alright as the stock fell another 4+% to another 52 week low along with the S&P500.

I believe that’s good for contractors